Hall vs one year deals

[oriole]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

I agree they 100% need to make a trade (I started a thread about it, haha), but I'm not fully convinced that trade is for a notable #1-3 SP. 

Regarding the replies on this thread, I think it's clear that the board overall is a bit pessimistic post-Winter Meetings, post-lease fakeout #2, post-Rubenstein fakeout, post-Ohtani, and post-other teams making moves. 

So we're imagining a scenario where the O's don't find a trade for a top-mid SP and are forced to supplement the rotation with a Gibson-type, and is that any better than Hall/Wells/Irvin. 

Yea, I think my post sounds angrier than I intended lol I’m more so frustrated. The prices are going to be high, but that’s baseball in 2024. If you want a proven SP, you gotta pay the market rate in dollars or prospects. The O’s have both. 

[Ripken]

6 minutes ago, oriole said:

Yea, I think my post sounds angrier than I intended lol I’m more so frustrated. The prices are going to be high, but that’s baseball in 2024. If you want a proven SP, you gotta pay the market rate in dollars or prospects. The O’s have both. 

This is what it looks like when everyone has accepted we have a POS owner.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Hall is the 2024 wildcard.  He has the tools to be the best SP on the team.  If he breaks out the team will be in a fantastic position.  

If command is a tool, then I don’t think he has the tools to be the best SP on the team.  

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would rather see Hall gain some traction as a reliever.  We can always try the starter thing next year when Means possibly leaves.   I just think I’d like to see him gain confidence and hopefully consistent command as a reliever first.   

As for the 5th starter, if Wells is healthy, he’s certainly shown he can be good for 3 months.  After that, figure it out.  Maybe McDermott, Povich, or Johnson is ready.
 

 

I agree with this.   Though I am not sure Means is going anywhere.

1) Hall best chance for success is as a reliever in 2024.   Maybe a starter in 2025.

2) Wells has shown over the last two years he can produce a 3.30 ERA for 15 starts.   That would be a #3 level performance.

3) McDermott had a 2.49 ERA and a 1.007 WHIP in 8 starts/2 relief appearances at AAA last year.   He should be ready for the majors by mid season.

4) Elias can trade for a #4 or 5 starter by shopping, Norby, Stowers, and Urias.    Norby was Baseball America #19 prospect in September.   In 2022 the O's had the #1 minor league system and  Stowers was the O's #8 prospect.   Urias won at the Gold Glove in 2022.   If Elias can't get a 4 or 5 starter for those guys there is something wrong.  And that starter will probably have options unlike a FA.

5) Irvin is a spot starter where Hyde picks his spots against teams he can compete against.

Edited December 13, 2023 by wildcard

[OriolesMagic83]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree with this.   Though I am not sure Means is going anywhere.

1) Hall best chance for success is as a reliever in 2024.   Maybe a starter in 2025.

2) Wells has shown over the last two years he can produce a 3.30 ERA for 15 starts.   That would be a #3 level performance.

3) McDermott had a 2.49 ERA and a 1.007 WHIP in 8 starts/2 relief appearances at AAA last year.   He should be ready for the majors by mid season.

4) Elias can trade for a #4 or 5 starter by shopping, Norby, Stowers, and Urias.    Norby was Baseball America #19 prospect in September.   In 2022 the O's had the #1 minor league system and  Stowers was the O's #8 prospect.   Urias won at the Gold Glove in 2022.   If Elias can't get a 4 or 5 starter for those guys there is something wrong.  And that starter will probably have options unlike a FA.

5) Irvin is a spot starter where Hyde picks his spots against teams he can compete against.

I don't see Means on the team past 2024 unless he is injured most of the year and the O's give him an incentive laden deal for 2025, say 1 yr/$8 mill plus incentives.  The other option would be if Means has a great year, say ERA under 3.50 and 150+ innings and the O's give him a QO.  The only way the O's are extending a QO is if there is no way he accepts it. 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If command is a tool, then I don’t think he has the tools to be the best SP on the team.  

I've seen guys refine command at the ML to an extent I have not seen with velocity or movement.

I'd hate to close the door on Hall as a starter.

[btdart20]

35 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I think he can pitch multiple innings out of the BP. Thus a bit more flexible.

We disagree on the comps. Is see Hall as a "three and flee" moreso than a "5 and dive" guy. I would use Josh Hader as a comp. At least in terms of upside.

Hader only throws two pitches.  Peralta and Snell throw 4 like Hall.  “Three and flee” may still apply if the command isn’t there!

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've seen guys refine command at the ML to an extent I have not seen with velocity or movement.

I'd hate to close the door on Hall as a starter.

I didn’t say he couldn’t be a starter.  Best SP on the team is another story.  

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I don't see Means on the team past 2024 unless he is injured most of the year and the O's give him an incentive laden deal for 2025, say 1 yr/$8 mill plus incentives.  The other option would be if Means has a great year, say ERA under 3.50 and 150+ innings and the O's give him a QO.  The only way the O's are extending a QO is if there is no way he accepts it. 

I am on record as believing in Means.  I think the O's should offer him 3/35-40m this off season.   His stated goal is to win the World Series and the O's will give him a great chance to do that. I project Means to give the O's  26 S, 150 IP with a 3.74 ERA next season which is his career ERA.

Edited December 13, 2023 by wildcard

[btdart20]

56 minutes ago, oriole said:

TB is always good somehow… with in house options because… risk averse front office.

I just snipped a little bit and connected the dots.  Especially if we define “risk” as “unknown” and “averse” as “don’t like” (and wanting to know/quantify).

[OriolesMagic83]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am on record as believing in Means.  I think the O's should offer him 3/35 this off season.   His stated goal is to win the World Series and the O's will give him a great chance to do that. I project Means to give the O's  26 S, 150 IP with a 3.74 ERA next season which is his career ERA.

I would be surprised if he reaches 150 innings, but an extension would be a great idea, even loaded w/ incentives.  So far JA has done nothing about extensions unless you count Bautista's 2 year deal, which I don't.  The only thing JA has done about extensions is complain about how expensive their going to be and how ticket prices will have to be raised.

[DirtyBird]

Depends on the bats. If our lineup can put up runs more consistently, I'd rather have him in the pen to give our offense a chance to win games.

If our lineup is boom or bust, I would prefer his potential upside as a starter with the stuff to shut a team down.

[RZNJ]

According to Fangraphs, Hall walked 5 and struck 23 in 19.1 IP whole throwing 373 pitches.  Great, improved control (SSS) as a reliever in one inning stints.  Still, that’s 19-20 pitches per inning and that’s assuming he can pitch 5 innings the same way he can go after hitters for one.  No thanks.  Let the kid establish himself as a reliever for now.

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would be surprised if he reaches 150 innings, but an extension would be a great idea, even loaded w/ incentives.  So far JA has done nothing about extensions unless you count Bautista's 2 year deal, which I don't.  The only thing JA has done about extensions is complain about how expensive their going to be and how ticket prices will have to be raised.

JA was talking about 150 to 200m contracts.  I am talking about 3/35-40m 

Edited December 13, 2023 by wildcard

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, oriole said:

Yea, I think my post sounds angrier than I intended lol I’m more so frustrated. The prices are going to be high, but that’s baseball in 2024. If you want a proven SP, you gotta pay the market rate in dollars or prospects. The O’s have both. 

I don't think you're wrong, but I think it's easier on a message board to say that we need to make trades than it is to actually do it without trading away our most elite assets.

The problem, as we all know, isn't that Elias refuses to get fleeced in a trade (that's not a problem, IMO), it's that we are not in the market to sign free agents (and don't quite have in-house options ready). So we're left in a position where, if a trade is our only option, you're looking at giving up Mayo or Basallo for guys that aren't elite, and one or more of them plus a significant package for guys that are. 

Hays, Santander, Mateo, Urias, Mountcastle, Norby, Westburg and Ortiz just aren't netting the TOR guy we all want. So, if we're looking at a trade, we're still looking at over paying, but for a #4 starter instead of a #1/2 starter.