Matt Blood on Jackson Holliday

[Tony-OH]

58 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And I don’t see how you can read/hear what Elias has done and said and what Hyde has said and think he will be there for a majority of 2024.

this is like the 12th time we've had this discussion, but I'll bring this up again. Elias is a smart guy who plays things close to the vest to his intentions for players. 

The fact that he was so open about his possibility of Holliday starting the year with the big league club, tells me he has a reason for saying so, and it's not to motivate Holliday because we know he doesn't need motivation to work hard.

So that got me thinking, what's his motive for saying this prior to the winter meetings?

1. Most Likely: He's making sure team's know that Westburg and Ortiz are available this offseason. He may be wanting to play teams off each other so knowing that they are available could drive up their value. In other words, Team A says I want Ortiz plus two other prospects for my pitcher, but Elias then says, "Well, I already have a better offer for Ortiz over here because I'm inundated with offers."

2. He's trying to make sure there's an air of competition for every position.

3. He's trying to motivate Westburg and Ortiz to come into the season in the best shape of their careers.

4. He's trying to create more buzz around his prospects

[Tony-OH]

47 minutes ago, banks703 said:

@Tony-OH the O's have spoiled us with these prolific Middle Infield Prospects. Even today I mix-up Holliday and Henderson... assuming that you're falling victim to this as well here and you mean Holliday and not Henderson. Not to pick nit .. just to clarify for the rest of the class. 

Yep, that should have read Holliday. 

[banks703]

43 minutes ago, waroriole said:

The only reason to think Holliday has a chance is based on his performance this year in the low minors and AA. At Norfolk, he was fine but nothing otherworldly that would suggest he should be with the team on OD. 

I don't necessarily agree with this take. I think his performance overall was impressive but what he did with the bat was pretty otherworldly for a 19 year old in his first season of professional ball. Everything that I've seen from him at the plate tells me that he is a top half of the order hitter right now. The power will come with his physical maturity but I think that he's going to lead the league in hitting at some point in his career (hopefully it's with the O's). As reluctant as I am to anoint him the SS of the future for the O's, he is very much ready to produce at the plate. 

I think an argument could have been made that he could have helped them against the Rangers. Would it have made a difference? Not at all but he could have been given ABs in that series and I would not have argued against it. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

this is like the 12th time we've had this discussion, but I'll bring this up again. Elias is a smart guy who plays things close to the vest to his intentions for players. 

The fact that he was so open about his possibility of Holliday starting the year with the big league club, tells me he has a reason for saying so, and it's not to motivate Holliday because we know he doesn't need motivation to work hard.

So that got me thinking, what's his motive for saying this prior to the winter meetings?

1. Most Likely: He's making sure team's know that Westburg and Ortiz are available this offseason. He may be wanting to play teams off each other so knowing that they are available could drive up their value. In other words, Team A says I want Ortiz plus two other prospects for my pitcher, but Elias then says, "Well, I already have a better offer for Ortiz over here because I'm inundated with offers."

2. He's trying to make sure there's an air of competition for every position.

3. He's trying to motivate Westburg and Ortiz to come into the season in the best shape of their careers.

4. He's trying to create more buzz around his prospects

5) He moved Holliday through all levels of the org in a year and he was either great or above average in every league playing at a young age and Elias feels he’s advanced enough that playing in the majors isn’t over his head.

 

I don’t think he makes the OD roster. In fact, I don’t even think he should but that doesn’t mean I don’t think he can.

But he’s not going to be in the minors well into July/August…unless he has had injury issues or his play is bad enough to warrant him staying…I doubt his play will be that bad, so unless he’s hurt, he will be up much sooner than that.

[banks703]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

5) He moved Holliday through all levels of the org in a year and he was either great or above average in every league playing at a young age and Elias feels he’s advanced enough that playing in the majors isn’t over his head.

 

I don’t think he makes the OD roster. In fact, I don’t even think he should but that doesn’t mean I don’t think he can.

But he’s not going to be in the minors well into July/August…unless he has had injury issues or his play is bad enough to warrant him staying…I doubt his play will be that bad, so unless he’s hurt, he will be up much sooner than that.

I tend to agree with this take but will suggest that if the O's are hot out of the gate and firmly positioned for a playoff spot (and of course their MI guys performing) I don't think the O's will burn Holliday's service time, especially if he's looking like a ROY in 25 is a near-lock. Now, if Mateo repeats the last five months of his 23, Urias isn't producing and any of Gunnar, JW or (hopefully) Joey are not performing and they need JH's bat for a playoff push, it's certainly possible that they do burn the rookie status. A scenario where they need Holliday's bat to get into the playoffs, to me, is suggestive that they are not good enough to compete for a World Series and thus, I'd argue against burning his clock for a one or two and a bbq 24 playoffs.

I don't see a scenario where they bring him up during the dog days. He either breaks camp with the big club as the starting 2B or he's in Norfolk until rosters expand. 

[waroriole]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

OD? I agree…but not a majority of the season…well into August or whatever. 

I would say that depends on performance. If his OPS is .794 next year, as it was in 91 PAs this year, he’s probably not ready. I fully expect him to be over .900 though and getting a call up sometime in June or July. 

[waroriole]

13 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I don't necessarily agree with this take. I think his performance overall was impressive but what he did with the bat was pretty otherworldly for a 19 year old in his first season of professional ball. Everything that I've seen from him at the plate tells me that he is a top half of the order hitter right now. The power will come with his physical maturity but I think that he's going to lead the league in hitting at some point in his career (hopefully it's with the O's). As reluctant as I am to anoint him the SS of the future for the O's, he is very much ready to produce at the plate. 

I think an argument could have been made that he could have helped them against the Rangers. Would it have made a difference? Not at all but he could have been given ABs in that series and I would not have argued against it. 

He’s on track to have an incredible big league career. But, I’m referring only to whether he’s the best player on OD. My guess is that he wouldn’t be yet. Ortiz has shown more at Norfolk. 

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

OD? I agree…but not a majority of the season…well into August or whatever. 

To me, I see no reason to prejudge when Holliday comes up.  It depends how he plays, and also how the other infielders on the roster are playing.  They’re not making decisions about Holliday in a vacuum.  

[Tony-OH]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

5) He moved Holliday through all levels of the org in a year and he was either great or above average in every league playing at a young age and Elias feels he’s advanced enough that playing in the majors isn’t over his head.

 

I don’t think he makes the OD roster. In fact, I don’t even think he should but that doesn’t mean I don’t think he can.

But he’s not going to be in the minors well into July/August…unless he has had injury issues or his play is bad enough to warrant him staying…I doubt his play will be that bad, so unless he’s hurt, he will be up much sooner than that.

The issue with your statement is it has nothing to do with whether playing in the majors is "over his head or not." It has to do whether he's the best player for a position full time. Right now, the Orioles have two better options to play 2B on opening day in Westburg and Ortiz and he's behind Henderson, Ortiz and Mateo defensively at SS.

If the Orioles didn't have those options then sure, but what if Westburg/Ortiz are playing great at 2B, Gunnar is a t SS and Mayo is at 3B doing well? where is he going to play? Are you just going to demote a player doing well to make room for him? 

If the team is winning and there is no need, they have no reason not to give him more experience and development time in AAA and treat him like they did with Gunnar.

You guys keep acting like how the Orioles are doing and need at a position he plays has nothing to do with his promotion, and I just can't disagree with that more. 

Could he be promoted before late August, sure, but it will be because there is a need at 2B or SS, he's playing well, and the team is in the playoff hunt.

[LookinUp]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Could he be promoted before late August, sure, but it will be because there is a need at 2B or SS, he's playing well, and the team is in the playoff hunt.

Well, I think the feeling is that Holliday will force a promotion before that time. That's the thing. If Westburg's a .750 2b/3b, he'll be replaceable.

[Satyr3206]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Barring an injury or an implosion by both Westburg and Ortiz (assuming they are both in the org), it makes zero sense to bring up Gunnar in June. Why would a team bring up the #1 prospect in baseball in June and lose a year of controllability, risk Super 2 status, and lose the ability for him to win the rookie of the year and miss out on a draft pick? 

The Orioles will either start the year with him at the major league level (doubtful) or will keep him down most of the year and only bring him up when they know they can keep him as a rookie for next year. If he's brought up before September 1st, he's eligible for the playoffs if he's the team's best second baseman. 

Obviously there are a ton of scenario's where Gunnar could come up or stay down, but it makes zero sense to randomly promote him when it would be too late for him to win rookie of the year, unless there was a need and he was tearing it up.

 

Don't you mean Jackson? I don't know exactly when the Super 2 cut off is but I think he comes up shortly after that passes.

[Sports Guy]

57 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The issue with your statement is it has nothing to do with whether playing in the majors is "over his head or not." It has to do whether he's the best player for a position full time. Right now, the Orioles have two better options to play 2B on opening day in Westburg and Ortiz and he's behind Henderson, Ortiz and Mateo defensively at SS.

If the Orioles didn't have those options then sure, but what if Westburg/Ortiz are playing great at 2B, Gunnar is a t SS and Mayo is at 3B doing well? where is he going to play? Are you just going to demote a player doing well to make room for him? 

If the team is winning and there is no need, they have no reason not to give him more experience and development time in AAA and treat him like they did with Gunnar.

You guys keep acting like how the Orioles are doing and need at a position he plays has nothing to do with his promotion, and I just can't disagree with that more. 

Could he be promoted before late August, sure, but it will be because there is a need at 2B or SS, he's playing well, and the team is in the playoff hunt.

If he’s as good as we think he is, he will be an upgrade this year.  If he is playing at a high level, there is zero doubt that he pushes his way onto the team.

And someone(s) will be traded this offseason to give him a clearer path.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

To me, I see no reason to prejudge when Holliday comes up.  It depends how he plays, and also how the other infielders on the roster are playing.  They’re not making decisions about Holliday in a vacuum.  

Welcome to the message board.

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

Don't you mean Jackson? I don't know exactly when the Super 2 cut off is but I think he comes up shortly after that passes.

No one knows the super 2 date. It always changes.

That said, they can bring him when it’s likely very safe.  Even more than that, I think they don’t want what happened to Adley happen to Holliday, so I think waiting until June (or into June) makes sense.

[Satyr3206]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

No one knows the super 2 date. It always changes.

That said, they can bring him when it’s likely very safe.  Even more than that, I think they don’t want what happened to Adley happen to Holliday, so I think waiting until June (or into June) makes sense.

I agree.