This offseason will tell us a lot about Elias

[TommyPickles]

I feel like his budget is also unknown to us fans.

Can he go out and sign a Marcus Stroman to a multi year deal? Or is that not on the table. We've heard rumors that the O's were "in" on these guys who have gotten three year deals, but we still haven't seen a multi year deal in the Elias era.

Stroman (3.95 ERA in 2023) and Cease (4.58 ERA in 2023) are projected to have nearly identical ERAs in 2024 (Baseball Reference). I'm curious if he has the flexibility to pivot to a free agent option? Could he save the prospects for a mid-season acquisition? Or is he really in a trade-or-bust scenario if he wants to upgrade the rotation this offseason?

(I'd prefer Cease, just an example)

Edited January 3 by TommyPickles

[Just Regular]

An Ace now or in July is somewhat a question how much they would move defending division title odds.    I have more confidence the 3rd playoff starter will be on the roster August 1 then April 1.     I think it boils down to:

1. Its fine for John Means, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells to pitch games 3, 4 and 5 in spring.

2. Its not fine (at least not that we can see yet) for any of them to pitch game 3 in fall.

Between now and August 1, data will compile whether Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo or Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber or Bryce Miller or Reid Detmers (or Grayson Rodriguez or Kyle Bradish) suffer disabling injuries.     Sigbot likes minimizing risk, but you really don't want Adley year 3 of 6 to end in ALWC Game 3 with a Kyle Gibson type pitcher getting blown out.

Lucas Giolito's 2024 equivalent will be on waivers in August, so I get holding to a high value on reasonably likely future first division players.

[interloper]

I'm not sure this offseason will tell us all that much about Elias. While it might be true that he'd rather hoard prospects, he's also operating in a very volatile ownership environment which is seeing the payout of the MASN deal, the new lease, possible sale negotiations, and god knows what else behind the scenes. 

Now maybe none of that actually matters. Maybe Elias is having a very normal off-season. But we don't know, and there's just a lot we don't know or will ever know about things behind the scenes. 

I do know that Elias won't make a bad deal for the sake of it and if it comes to that, he'll feel good about his ML team and his farm system and figure out the backlog later. 

Edited January 3 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

Elias has to show he can make viable trades where he sends prospects for established guys.

Until this organization shows a willingness to extend young players, the window of contention with these guys is only open for so long.  
 

As Hyde said, the mindset has to shift and winning has to be the priority.

Edited January 3 by Sports Guy

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't know if the choices are that binary.  

In regards to Ortiz, I think he's worth what he's worth.  And I don't know if he's worth more to us as a depth piece or worth more to another team as a potential starting SS.  Same goes for Stowers.  

I agree, but let's say the CWS demand either Basallo/Mayo to make a trade.  Are we then supposed to auction off Ortiz and Stowers for a lower level prospect?  There's value in Ortiz and Stowers both being plug and play starters if injuries happen.  Especially multiple injuries.  It seems like that happens to the Rays alot and they have to rely on their own versions of Ortiz and Stowers.  

[Jim'sKid26]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s not about “excuses.”  It’s about the professional judgment of the group that simultaneously built that 101 win team and the stacked farm system.  They’ll get every benefit of the doubt from me for the time being in determining whether the cost of upgrading the pitching is worth it.   

And by the way, I’m not particularly itchy yet.  There’s still 6 weeks left to get a deal done before spring training starts, and often the best deals are late deals.   Elias can take his time weighing his options so far as I’m concerned.  
 

As I know you are aware, windows of opportunity open and close rather unpredictably and sometimes rather rapidly. While I share your feeling of confidence in the group that built the team, I am still uncertain whether they can "take it to the house." Winning 101 games is one thing. Winning a championship is quite another. The window is now open. When is it gonna close? It's been a long time since 1983. 

[Sports Guy]

The other issue is we have ownership that is not fully committed to winning, so when you are in position to win, in spite of ownership, you have to take advantage of it.

Edited January 3 by Sports Guy

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s not about “excuses.”  It’s about the professional judgment of the group that simultaneously built that 101 win team and the stacked farm system.  They’ll get every benefit of the doubt from me for the time being in determining whether the cost of upgrading the pitching is worth it.   

And by the way, I’m not particularly itchy yet.  There’s still 6 weeks left to get a deal done before spring training starts, and often the best deals are late deals.   Elias can take his time weighing his options so far as I’m concerned.  
 

I agree with this. Personally, I think Elias is in a high stakes Texas Holdem poker game with the White Sox and the turn card has still yet to be flipped. The White Sox have no real incentive to move Cease right now so why not let the GMs percolate more and more. 

If I'm the White Sox, I'm probably holding out for Mayo or Basallo right now, and if that's the current cost of Cease then I understand Elias holding off. As spring training gets closer and closer, the pressure on the White Sox to take the best deal they can get will go up. It's makes no sense to keep Cease since they won't be competing for a few years at the very least, so they need a package of players that will help them rebuild.

They need a SS and 2B, but they also have several top prospects in their system like Colson Montgomery, Jacob Gonzalez and José Rodríguez who could fit that bill so Ortiz and/or Westburg doesn't make a lot of sense for them. So really what they need are corner outfielders and a catcher. That would seem to mean the Orioles need to entice them with players like Kjerstad, Cowser, Beavers or Horvath and then probably have to throw in Povich or McDermott or maybe even Tyler Wells to get it done. That's assuming the orioles are not making Basallo and Mayo available. I'll be honest, I like Cease, but I'm not trading either one of those guys for him.

There's still time here and probably why Elias is starting to chatter with Houston about Valdez.

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

An Ace now or in July is somewhat a question how much they would move defending division title odds.    I have more confidence the 3rd playoff starter will be on the roster August 1 then April 1.     I think it boils down to:

1. Its fine for John Means, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells to pitch games 3, 4 and 5 in spring.

2. Its not fine (at least not that we can see yet) for any of them to pitch game 3 in fall.

Between now and August 1, data will compile whether Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo or Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber or Bryce Miller or Reid Detmers (or Grayson Rodriguez or Kyle Bradish) suffer disabling injuries.     Sigbot likes minimizing risk, but you really don't want Adley year 3 of 6 to end in ALWC Game 3 with a Kyle Gibson type pitcher getting blown out.

Lucas Giolito's 2024 equivalent will be on waivers in August, so I get holding to a high value on reasonably likely future first division players.

That's a good point and something I'm sure Elias is thinking about. At the trading deadline Elias will have a better understanding of what he needs for a long playoff push. If Cease is going to cost him a Mayo or Basallo now, no thanks. If Cease returns back to Cy Young Cease this year and the orioles need that TOR, then perhaps, and I only say perhaps, Elias considers moving one of them then.

[interloper]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s not about “excuses.”  It’s about the professional judgment of the group that simultaneously built that 101 win team and the stacked farm system.  They’ll get every benefit of the doubt from me for the time being in determining whether the cost of upgrading the pitching is worth it.   

And by the way, I’m not particularly itchy yet.  There’s still 6 weeks left to get a deal done before spring training starts, and often the best deals are late deals.   Elias can take his time weighing his options so far as I’m concerned.  
 

Yeah. This is a smart group of people running things - the smartest and most cohesive group in the history of the franchise, basically. So ultimately I'm confident in their decisions, even if I have a quibble here or there. 

If Elias makes a deal, we'll know it's one he feels good about. If he doesn't, then that was probably the right call, too. I think "prospect hoarding" is probably a little too hand-wavey of a term. There's certainly more calculus to it than that, anyway. And if Angelos really is operating on an extremely tight budget, then those prospects are our only real shot of continuing to be comepetitive long term. So he has to be very careful with those assets. 

That said - the logjam is undeniable and there will need to be some minor trades at the very least. If the prospects aren't being dealt, you have to make room for them to play. 

Edited January 3 by interloper

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm not sure this offseason will tell us all that much about Elias. While it might be true that he'd rather hoard prospects, he's also operating in a very volatile ownership environment which is seeing the payout of the MASN deal, the new lease, possible sale negotiations, and god knows what else behind the scenes. 

Now maybe none of that actually matters. Maybe Elias is having a very normal off-season. But we don't know, and there's just a lot we don't know or will ever know about things behind the scenes. 

I do know that Elias won't make a bad deal for the sake of it and if it comes to that, he'll feel good about his ML team and his farm system and figure out the backlog later. 

So two years in a row of not trading for an impact starter/player despite having multiple major league ready prospects with no where to play doesn't tell you anything?

Now perhaps I should have added "under the current ownership" to be more clear. I do agree with that how Elias operates is affected by his budget, and part of why he doesn't just go "all in" on a player who he may perceive as being too "expensive" when it coms to the amount of prospects he has to give up to acquire them.

One other thing I'd like to add is that Elias has changed a bit in some of his philosophies. Without a doubt Elias had a draft the bats, acquire the arms philosophy through his first 4 drafts, but last year was a change in going after higher upside arms earlier in the draft. Now he still hasn't taken a 1st round pitcher, but he did show the ability adjust his strategies once he has more data. 

 

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So two years in a row of not trading for an impact starter/player despite having multiple major league ready prospects with no where to play doesn't tell you anything? I guess I would wonder what would tell you about him?

Now perhaps I should have added "under the current ownership" to be more clear. I do agree with that how Elias operates is affected by his budget, and part of why he doesn't just go "all in" on a player who he may perceive as being too "expensive" when it coms to the amount of prospects he has to give up to acquire them.

One other thing I'd like to add is that Elias has changed a bit in some of his philosophies. Without a doubt Elias had a draft the bats, acquire the arms philosophy through his first 4 drafts, but last year was a change in going after higher upside arms earlier in the draft. Now he still hasn't taken a 1st round pitcher, but he did show the ability adjust his strategies once he has more data. 

 

I think it may tell us some things, but I just don't know how to parse whether or not we're learning about Elias or Angelos. Like, if Angelos isn't giving him a budget, Elias may feel the need to hang onto more prospects to make sure he's got good players over the next few years. And that might mean the difference between offering Westburg in a trade vs offering a slightly less valuable Ortiz (or Norby, whoever). And teams might only want Westburg, resultiing in no trade being consummated. So in that scenario, is that really telling us much about Elias? Maybe! But it might be telling us more about Angelos and his effect on Elias' decisions. It's hard to know. 

Anyway - I don't really see that happening ultimately. I think he does make a trade (or signing) for a quality ML SP. I continue to doubt it will be Cease because the White Sox clearly want the moon and we should not oblige for a guy who may or may not be any better than Dean Kremer if he doesn't return to form. 

Edited January 3 by interloper

[Moose Milligan]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That's a good point and something I'm sure Elias is thinking about. At the trading deadline Elias will have a better understanding of what he needs for a long playoff push. If Cease is going to cost him a Mayo or Basallo now, no thanks. If Cease returns back to Cy Young Cease this year and the orioles need that TOR, then perhaps, and I only say perhaps, Elias considers moving one of them then.

At the trade deadline, we'll also know who is having a great season (like you alluded to with Cy Young Cease) and perhaps more importantly, who hasn't come up with forearm tightness over the course of the season.

Can you imagine the poopstorm this place would turn into if we traded Kjerstad/Cowser, Norby, Ortiz or whatever make-believe packages people have come up with on here for Cease and then Cease has to have TJ later this summer?  

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

At the trade deadline, we'll also know who is having a great season (like you alluded to with Cy Young Cease) and perhaps more importantly, who hasn't come up with forearm tightness over the course of the season.

Can you imagine the poopstorm this place would turn into if we traded Kjerstad/Cowser, Norby, Ortiz or whatever make-believe packages people have come up with on here for Cease and then Cease has to have TJ later this summer?  

The more I think about Cease, the more concerned I become about him just being Flaherty 2.0. Something caused that bad year - do we know what it was? I'm sure it's part of the sticking point in trade negotiations. The O's have to protect themsevles from giving up all these guys and Cease just being another Dean Kremer. Or worse, he's compensating for something and like you said, his arm explodes. 

Edited January 3 by interloper

[sportsfan8703]

What about the foreign pitcher Naoyuki Uwasawa?  We were linked to him at some point early this offseason.  His posting window ends on Jan 11th at 5 pm.