Fangraphs hates our rotation

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The impact of Camden Yards is extremely overblown.  The O’s pitchers had a 3.83 ERA at home, 3.98 on the road.  Not only is that 0.15 difference relatively small, it’s actually smaller than the MLB-wide differential between pitching at home (4.23 MLB average) and on the road (4.44).   The O’s were 0.40 better than average at home, 0.46 better than average on the road.   (All pitchers, not just starters.)

As to our defense, yes it was well above average.  +34 Rdrs, +35 Rtot.  That amounts to roughly 0.21 runs/game.  So if you added that to our starters’ ERA they’d go from 4.14 to 4.35, or from 11th in MLB to 16th.   

So, my bottom line is, the stadium and our defense make our pitchers’ numbers look a bit better than they otherwise would be, but it’s not drastic enough to say our pitching staff will be 25th-best.   

 

What you aren’t factoring in is where our pitchers would be if the wall hadn’t been moved.

 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What you aren’t factoring in is where our pitchers would be if the wall hadn’t been moved.

 

Why is that relevant?   The old wall was way too hitter friendly.  I’m not really interested in the new wall vs. the old wall.  I’m interested in the current dimensions of the stadium vs. the dimensions of other stadiums.  And while LF is spacious, RF is quite cozy and the center part of the field is friendly in certain places too.  And the data I gave showed that our pitchers did quite well on the road.   

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Why is that relevant?   The old wall was way too hitter friendly.  I’m not really interested in the new wall vs. the old wall.  I’m interested in the current dimensions of the stadium vs. the dimensions of other stadiums.  And while LF is spacious, RF is quite cozy and the center part of the field is friendly in certain places too.  And the data I gave showed that our pitchers did quite well on the road.   

It’s relevant because you said the new wall is overblown. No it’s not. It’s a huge factor for the pitchers, especially the back end guys who are flyball pitchers with middling stuff. If that wall was where it was, all of the numbers would be much worse for many of these pitchers.

[wildcard]

The thing about the projection is that it says "right now".

I do think the rotation is thin at the back end.   Right now that would have Irvin and McDermott making 20 to 25 starts between them.   That pulls the rotation projection down.   Elias needs to add a starter  even if its just a guy that can pitch 20-25 starts with a 4.00 ERA.

Edited January 4 by wildcard

[foxfield]

8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Prospects bust so expecting 20 years of service time (or at least quality service time) is simply not realistic.

Generally that is true. But 20 years of service time from the top shelf of one of the top teams is going to have better odds. But let’s say one player hits all star level for 5 years and the rest flop. That’s not unlikely. And by most accounts the whitesox are looking for closer to 30 years with 18-24 coming from the top. 
 

I don’t begrudge WS or any other team asking for this return. And I am not the one who has to make this move.  But I wouldn’t and I don’t think Elias will. Not for 2 years of anyone. 
 

And I like Cease. But in my opinion, if the ask remains at the rumored levels you will enjoy his services for 2 years. With the one caveat being if he comes out hot this year, he may get a huge haul at the deadline in 24. 
 

And while I am dispensing my 2 cents, the Orioles if they are not willing to pay a kings ransom for 2 or three years of mid to top level pitching, are going to have to spend. Actual cash and sign a FA. 

It’s one or the other. 

I think standing pat is fine in the sense that this team has room to improve internally. But you have to be willing to spend capital to apply finishing touches. I have faith that Elias will make the right call.   For the most part we have been two steps behind him all along. Hopefully his vision beyond the curve continues to pay dividends. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The thing about the projection is that it says "right now".

I do think the rotation is thin at the back end.   Right now that would have Irvin and McDermott making 20 to 25 starts between them.   That pulls the rotation projection down.   Elias needs to add a starter  even if its just a guy that can pitch 20-25 starts with a 4.00 ERA.

You honestly think this projection is about those 2?  lol 

[DenaOsHon]

There is plenty of time to make a move. I can't imagine the White Sox, Marlins or any other team with extra pitching are in any rush to make a trade with some many players still unsigned. Orioles should holdout as long as possible for the best deal for them. Just my two cents.

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You honestly think this projection is about those 2?  lol 

Well it doesn't help.   National media is not as familiar with the O's rotation as we are.   They probably don't think GRod projects to be anything special but he is.  He will be a Cy Young candidate if his 2nd half performace holds.    

I am sure the national media would not trust Means.   But they don't account for the fact that Elias/Hyde/Holt are going to trust him with 25 starts no matter how many innings he pitched in 2023.   They  trusted GRod after he only pitched 75 innings in the minors in 2022.  He ended up pitching 163 innings in 2023.   

National media probably has Wells in the pen.   I think he has proven he can start 15 games with a 3.30 ERA.

I don't really care what Fangraph projects because they don't know what I know about this rotation and the O's managers.    But Elias still does have to  add a  starter to pitch 20-25 starts to make this a World Series team.

Edited January 4 by wildcard

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s relevant because you said the new wall is overblown. No it’s not. It’s a huge factor for the pitchers, especially the back end guys who are flyball pitchers with middling stuff. If that wall was where it was, all of the numbers would be much worse for many of these pitchers.

Go back and read what I said: “the impact of Camden Yards is overblown.”  Not the new wall.  Not the new wall vs. the old wall.  The overall dimensions of the stadium.  

Here’s another way to look at it.  Our pitchers were 7th in ERA, 14th in ERA+, which takes the ballparks into account.  So yes it had some impact, but it’s not like we’d have a bad staff pitching somewhere else.  Our team had the 6th best road ERA in baseball.   The wall had zero impact on that.   
 

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Go back and read what I said: “the impact of Camden Yards is overblown.”  Not the new wall.  Not the new wall vs. the old wall.  The overall dimensions of the stadium.  

Here’s another way to look at it.  Our pitchers were 7th in ERA, 14th in ERA+, which takes the ballparks into account.  So yes it had some impact, but it’s not like we’d have a bad staff pitching somewhere else.  Our team had the 6th best road ERA in baseball.   The wall had zero impact on that.   
 

But we play in a lot of stadiums that are pitchers parks as well.

This staff is greatly helped out by the new wall. This discussion is about this ranking. This ranking is based off of fWAR which measures things differently than some like. Some point to the team ERA, which they have 10th.

The team ERA is greatly helped by the wall. And the effects aren’t just showing up in stats. There is a mental impact as well.

[Sports Guy]

52 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well it doesn't help.   National media is not as familiar with the O's rotation as we are.   They probably don't think GRod projects to be anything special but he is.  He will be a Cy Young candidate if his 2nd half performace holds.    

I am sure the national media would not trust Means.   But they don't account for the fact that Elias/Hyde/Holt are going to trust him with 25 starts no matter how many innings he pitched in 2023.   They  trusted GRod after he only pitched 75 innings in the minors in 2022.  He ended up pitching 163 innings in 2023.   

National media probably has Wells in the pen.   I think he has proven he can start 15 games with a 3.30 ERA.

I don't really care what Fangraph projects because they don't know what I know about this rotation and the O's managers.    But Elias still does have to  add a  starter to pitch 20-25 starts to make this a World Series team.

1) FG isn’t looking at one spot in the rotation, especially the 5th spot where most teams suck, and determining anything. It might be part of the equation but it’s not close “the reason”.

2)acting like the national media doesn’t know who GRod is or how good he is or what his upside is makes no sense. Stop playing the martyr role.

3) The media doesn’t know how Means will bounce back. Projection systems don’t know how he will bounce back. None of these things know what his health with be like. And guess what, none of us know either. It’s all hope and nothing more than that.

4) The media doesn’t buy into Wells because well, there is no reason to buy into a guy with durability and endurance issues. No one in their right mind would buy into that guy (as a starter) especially on a contending team.

[Oriole1940]

10 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Look, you guys can do whatever you want.  But I truly believe you guys are nuts if you think your rotation is good enough as is.  There is nothing more dangerous than the arrogance of prior year results.  The good news is Mike Elias isn’t stupid and I highly doubt he doesn’t augment the rotation with an impactful starter.

No one here expressed ANY arrogance, but to the contrary   "Hence the pursuit of   another starter." 

[DirtyBird]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Look, you guys can do whatever you want.  But I truly believe you guys are nuts if you think your rotation is good enough as is.  There is nothing more dangerous than the arrogance of prior year results.  The good news is Mike Elias isn’t stupid and I highly doubt he doesn’t augment the rotation with an impactful starter.

Does this guy realize that trades aren't made via message board vote?

[interloper]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Look, you guys can do whatever you want.  But I truly believe you guys are nuts if you think your rotation is good enough as is.  There is nothing more dangerous than the arrogance of prior year results.  The good news is Mike Elias isn’t stupid and I highly doubt he doesn’t augment the rotation with an impactful starter.

I think most here would agree, as most of us don't want to enter the season with the same guys in the rotation. 

Bradish - Regression risk as a young stuff-dependent pitcher
Grayson - Is he first half Grayson or 2nd half? Does the TJS monster get him? 
Means - Didn't look like himself in small sample last season
Kremer - Kind of don't know what you get night to night
Wells - Doesn't have SP stamina over a full season, usually hits the IL at some point
Hall - Probably a reliever
Irvin - Somehow got worse coming over here from the A's

Now, any team can do this exercise with their rotation candidates. But yeah, it's a reason why the majority of us feel like a significant rotation addition is prudent. 

Edited January 4 by interloper

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think most here would agree, as most of us don't want to enter the season with the same guys in the rotation. 

Bradish - Regression risk as a young stuff-dependent pitcher
Grayson - Is he first half Grayson or 2nd half? Does the TJS monster get him? 
Means - Didn't look like himself in small sample last season
Kremer - Kind of don't know what you get night to night
Wells - Doesn't have SP stamina over a full season, usually hits the IL at some point
Hall - Probably a reliever
Irvin - Somehow got worse coming over here from the A's

Now, any team can do this exercise with their rotation candidates. But yeah, it's a reason why the majority of us feel like a significant rotation addition is prudent. 

This strikes me as a real “glass half empty” look at things.  Here’s how I see it:

Bradish - will probably be very good, but after finishing 3rd in the AL in ERA last year, there’s almost nowhere to go but down.  Hoping for more than 165 innings though.  

Rodriguez - way more upside than downside.   He probably won’t be as good as his second half ERA suggests but he’ll be much better than what his overall ERA suggests.  

Means - I don’t know why you say he didn’t look the same.  He looked exactly the same to me.  Maybe a tick lower on the FB, not enough to worry about because that’s not what makes him an effective pitcher.   My big issue with him is he’s never gone through a season without missing at least several starts so I assume that will be the case.

Kremer - on the one hand, he’s outperformed his peripherals two years in a row and could be very mediocre if his actual stats align more with his peripherals this year.  On the other hand, he had a strong second half, is a smart guy and very competitive, so he could have upside as well.  I think the median outcome for him is another year like the last one.   

Wells - I love the guy as a starting pitcher, but he hasn’t shown the ability to get through a full season so I’d prefer him in the bullpen.  Still, having him in the rotation wouldn’t be the worst thing.

Hall - Might be a very good “five and five” type starter, probably would be very good in the pen.  You wouldn’t want him as the only decent option for your no. 5 starter, but he’s not, so it’s okay.  

Irvin - got off to a bad start last year but pitched well after returning to the majors.  Honestly he’s probably better than many teams’ 5th starter.   

And then you’ve got some plausible options in AAA for the second half of the season.  

That’s far from a bad rotation, sort of averagish with some upside as well as some downside.   I think adding a no. 3 or better starter both increases the upside and significantly lowers our downside risk, but I’m not going to freak out if it doesn’t happen.