Your 2025 team will tell us who to keep and who to trade

[RZNJ]

1B Basallo (50 games at C)

2B Holliday

SS Henderson

3B Mayo

C  Rutshman

LF Norby

CF Mullins

RF Kjerstad

DH Westburg (super utility IF/OF)

Bradish

GRod

Cease (Cowser, Ortiz traded)

Kremer

Povich

 

Irvin

McDermott

Perez

S. Johnson

Wells

Hall

Kimbrel (option picked up)

Bautista

[wildcard]

30 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

1B Basallo (50 games at C)

2B Holliday

SS Henderson

3B Mayo

C  Rutshman

LF Norby

CF Mullins

RF Kjerstad

DH Westburg (super utility IF/OF)

Bradish

GRod

Cease (Cowser, Ortiz traded)

Kremer

Povich

 

Irvin

McDermott

Perez

S. Johnson

Wells

Hall

Kimbrel (option picked up)

Bautista

Interesting.  You think Elias caves and trades Cowser.   Do you think if Elias agreed to this earlier the trade would already be made?  

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Interesting.  You think Elias caves and trades Cowser.   Do you think if Elias agreed to this earlier the trade would already be made?  

No.  I think he held Cowser out but was always prepared to include him when the time came.

[jamalshw]

I do think Basallo is probably midseason 2025 unless he completely mashes all year in AA and AAA. I'm also a bit concerned about just how left-handed we are. That is what gives guys like Ortiz and Norby a chance. That's also why Mayo is nearly untouchable to me, because the end of the year 2025 roster, if all goes well, in my mind is inclusive of only a couple righties or switch hitters: Adley (switch), Mayo, and Westburg. That's it. Holliday, Henderson, Basallo, Kjerstad, Cowser, and Mullins makes up the difference. A guy like Ortiz as an utility infielder can give a day off here and there to Henderson or Holliday against a LHP (and spell Westburg on occasion against a RHP). Norby (as an OF) can do the same for Cowser or Kjerstad (or Mullins with Cowser shifting over to CF). Given the LHH heavy prospects that may make someone like Cowser or Kjerstad more available via trade with Mayo sliding into RF, Basallo playing more 1B and occasional C, and opening up DH to be rotated around and potentially opening up ABs for Ortiz or another RHH. 

If in this exercise, we are looking for the "spare" parts to trade, the answer still isn't particularly clear. In the end, I'd hate giving up any of our top-5 prospects (or top-6 really given the case I made for Ortiz), but I could see one of Cowser or Kjerstad being moveable given the handedness. 

And yes, I get that OPACY is set up for LHH while being difficult for RHH, but we make ourselves vulnerable particularly on the road against a tough LHP if we are as LHH-heavy as we are seemingly set to be in a year or two.  

 

[wildcard]

59 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I do think Basallo is probably midseason 2025 unless he completely mashes all year in AA and AAA. I'm also a bit concerned about just how left-handed we are. That is what gives guys like Ortiz and Norby a chance. That's also why Mayo is nearly untouchable to me, because the end of the year 2025 roster, if all goes well, in my mind is inclusive of only a couple righties or switch hitters: Adley (switch), Mayo, and Westburg. That's it. Holliday, Henderson, Basallo, Kjerstad, Cowser, and Mullins makes up the difference. A guy like Ortiz as an utility infielder can give a day off here and there to Henderson or Holliday against a LHP (and spell Westburg on occasion against a RHP). Norby (as an OF) can do the same for Cowser or Kjerstad (or Mullins with Cowser shifting over to CF). Given the LHH heavy prospects that may make someone like Cowser or Kjerstad more available via trade with Mayo sliding into RF, Basallo playing more 1B and occasional C, and opening up DH to be rotated around and potentially opening up ABs for Ortiz or another RHH. 

If in this exercise, we are looking for the "spare" parts to trade, the answer still isn't particularly clear. In the end, I'd hate giving up any of our top-5 prospects (or top-6 really given the case I made for Ortiz), but I could see one of Cowser or Kjerstad being moveable given the handedness. 

And yes, I get that OPACY is set up for LHH while being difficult for RHH, but we make ourselves vulnerable particularly on the road against a tough LHP if we are as LHH-heavy as we are seemingly set to be in a year or two.  

 

I think this is a great point.   It means that right-handers Westburg and Ortiz are important to keep to have a balanced lineup vs left-handed pitching.   Adley, Mayo, Westburg and Ortiz could be in the lineup vs lefties.

Edited January 17 by wildcard

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

1B Basallo (50 games at C)

2B Holliday

SS Henderson

3B Mayo

C  Rutshman

LF Norby

CF Mullins

RF Kjerstad

DH Westburg (super utility IF/OF)

Bradish

GRod

Cease (Cowser, Ortiz traded)

Kremer

Povich

 

Irvin

McDermott

Perez

S. Johnson

Wells

Hall

Kimbrel (option picked up)

Bautista

Kimbrel’s option being picked up is interesting. He would have to a really good season for that to happen. We could have a best in mlb pen with Kimbrel, Bautista, and Cano. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Kimbrel’s option being picked up is interesting. He would have to a really good season for that to happen. We could have a best in mlb pen with Kimbrel, Bautista, and Cano. 

Kimbrel had 94 K’s in 69 IP last year.  I don’t think he’s toast.  I think he might surprise with a better season than expected.   

[CaptainRedbeard]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think this is a great point.   It means that right-handers Westburg and Ortiz are important to keep to have a balanced lineup vs left-handed pitching.   Adley, Mayo, Westburg and Ortiz could be in the lineup vs lefties.

The problem is if Westburg and Ortiz don’t have enough path to playing time as righty bench options, their value is of better use in a trade. For me it really hinges on if Mayo is playing 3B; if he’s not at 3B, then Westburg/Ortiz could both still play a lot. But if Mayo is entrenched at 3B with Gunnar at SS and Holliday at 2B…then Westburg and Ortiz are going to be buried on the bench.

I think this is a better argument for keeping Norby than either of Westburg or Ortiz. He’s not so valuable a prospect that he’d necessarily be better off trading than keeping around as a righty bench option. However, he’s got to be able to play passably at 2B/LF. He’s not a good enough hitter to just be a DH/1B. 

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The problem is if Westburg and Ortiz don’t have enough path to playing time as righty bench options, their value is of better use in a trade. For me it really hinges on if Mayo is playing 3B; if he’s not at 3B, then Westburg/Ortiz could both still play a lot. But if Mayo is entrenched at 3B with Gunnar at SS and Holliday at 2B…then Westburg and Ortiz are going to be buried on the bench.

I think this is a better argument for keeping Norby than either of Westburg or Ortiz. He’s not so valuable a prospect that he’d necessarily be better off trading than keeping around as a righty bench option. However, he’s got to be able to play passably at 2B/LF. He’s not a good enough hitter to just be a DH/1B. 

I think Westburg and Ortiz  are better players than Norby.  I think Elias should keep the O's best players.    In 2024 the will have right-handed Mountcastle along with Adley and Mayo at some point.  Westburg and Ortiz are  important in balancing the lineup vs lefthanded pitchers.

No matter which side of the plate a hitter hits from it comes down to who players can hit.

[CaptainRedbeard]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Westburg and Ortiz  are better players than Norby.  I think Elias should keep the O's best players.    In 2024 the will have right-handed Mountcastle along with Adley and Mayo at some point.  Westburg and Ortiz are  important in balancing the lineup vs lefthanded pitchers.

No matter which side of the plate a hitter hits from it comes down to who players can hit.

Westburg and Ortiz are better than Norby. But if Mayo is playing 3B and there’s only about 45 total 2B/3B/SS starts available behind Henderson, Holliday and Mayo, how much does that matter?  In that scenario if you can get a better pitcher by trading Westburg or Ortiz instead of Norby then that will be more valuable. 

The problem is if Mayo is not playing 3B at all, then you do probably want to keep the best 2 of 3 from Westburg, Ortiz and Norby.

If the Orioles are not confident in knowing where Mayo is going to play at the MLB level, then that’s a fair reason to be tentative about knowing who is most expendable. 

[Just Regular]

Brandon Hyde might have to have his Davey Johnson playing Jeff Reboulet over Rafael Palmeiro kind of moment if we encounter any Randy Johnsons in the wilderness, but I believe generally Sigbot scoffs at right handed balance.

Adley, Gunnar, Kjerstad, Cowser, Basallo, Holliday, Mullins, EBJ are a possible "A" team by the end of next year.

Coby Mayo may be the only RH Bat to qualify for batting titles for a minute after '24 Austin Hays.     Westburg, Ortiz....good luck.     I assume next month Mayo, Urias, Westburg and Ortiz will all be in fielding drills together at 3B, and Westburg/Ortiz will have a sturdier path to daylight if Mayo looks rough.

Maybe Mateo branches out to SS/CF/3B too if Elias' play is "no bad vibes" with Scott Boras' middle infielders.

 

[emmett16]

16 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Brandon Hyde might have to have his Davey Johnson playing Jeff Reboulet over Rafael Palmeiro kind of moment if we encounter any Randy Johnsons in the wilderness, but I believe generally Sigbot scoffs at right handed balance.

Adley, Gunnar, Kjerstad, Cowser, Basallo, Holliday, Mullins, EBJ are a possible "A" team by the end of next year.

Coby Mayo may be the only RH Bat to qualify for batting titles for a minute after '24 Austin Hays.     Westburg, Ortiz....good luck.     I assume next month Mayo, Urias, Westburg and Ortiz will all be in fielding drills together at 3B, and Westburg/Ortiz will have a sturdier path to daylight if Mayo looks rough.

Maybe Mateo branches out to SS/CF/3B too if Elias' play is "no bad vibes" with Scott Boras' middle infielders.

 

I’ve n been thinking of the same thing.  % of LHPs, while increasing, is still relatively low.  Our park is geared very favorably for left handed batters.  They very obviously have a preference for left handed hitters.  I don’t think it’s just happenstance.  I don’t think the RH/LH balance is very important to them. 

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’ve n been thinking of the same thing.  % of LHPs, while increasing, is still relatively low.  Our park is geared very favorably for left handed batters.  They very obviously have a preference for left handed hitters.  I don’t think it’s just happenstance.  I don’t think the RH/LH balance is very important to them. 

If they can't score enough runs vs left-handed pitching it will become important.

[emmett16]

42 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If they can't score enough runs vs left-handed pitching it will become important.

Last year 27.7% of the Orioles total PA came vs. LHP.  Of that 27.7% total 23.4% was LHP v. LHB.  It’s important, but competing vs. RHP is 2.5X more important.  
 

1521 PAs RHP v RHB for a .679 OPS

399 PAs LHP v LHB for a .648 OPS 

 

 

Edited January 17 by emmett16

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Last year 27.7% of the Orioles total PA came vs. LHP.  Of that 27.7% total 23.4% was LHP v. LHB.  It’s important, but competing vs. RHP is 2.5X more important.  
 

1521 PAs RHP v RHB for a .679 OPS

399 PAs LHP v LHB for a .648 OPS 

 

 

Yes, I agree.  But they still have to score runs vs lefties.   That is why O'Hearn and Mullins were out of the lineup vs most lefties.