One possible reason Elias has not made a big trade...

[drjohnnyfever1]

3 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

...is that he considers none of our best young players or prospects as truly expendable... YET. 

Obviously, current studs Henderson (22.7) and Rutschman (26.1) will not be dealt.

• Holliday (20.3)  is the game's top prospect and is about as untouchable as one would expect.  While he shows promise at SS, he currently projects as our future 2B.  I suspect he'll start the season splitting action at 2B and SS in Norfolk and take over at 2B in Baltimore as soon as he's deemed ready.  With that said, we shouldn't discount the possibility of him breaking camp with the big club. 
• Westburg (25.1) is a promising player and is expected to be our starting 2B or 3B, pending a number of scenarios. Perhaps he's not expendable without knowing whether Holliday breaks camp with us at 2B, or even Mayo at 3B.  Neither seems likely.  Gunnar could move to 3B with Ortiz taking over at SS, but, again, it's not currently known how things will shake out.  Until that shaking occurs, Westburg seems valuable moving forward, especially if Mayo shows no improvement at 3B, coupled with Gunnar remaining at SS.  Westburg could be a super utility guy as soon as some point later this season, though if he has no starting spot, his trade availability increases.
• Ortiz (25.7) has nothing left to prove at AAA.  As noted above, he may be our new SS, pushing Gunnar over to 3B.  However, with Gunnar establishing himself as a quality defender at SS, it's not yet clear whether the O's would seek to move him for Ortiz.  While Ortiz could start at 2B,  it would be reasonable to expect that he'd instead be inserted as our starting SS.  Some point out that Ortiz can handle 3B as well, making him a possible utility guy, but one might think that his value as a major league ready starting SS would be better utilized in trade.
•  Mayo (22.3) is rightfully among the top prospects in the game, mostly based on his middle-of-the-order offensive profile.  The unknown is his defensive position.  He has come up as a 3B in the minors, with some time at 1B and RF as well. Determining his defensive home will be is among the more interesting storylines for the upcoming season.  Some hope that will be at 3B, though even the kindest estimates have him as average at best.  RF or 1B seem like solid alternatives, with his rocket arm probably best served in RF.  1B could be in play with neither Mountcastle or O'Hearn  secure at 1B in the long term.  Like the others listed here, Mayo is one of many puzzle pieces with currently unknown destinations.
• Basallo (19.6) is unlikely to factor into our plans this season, but as yet another great top prospect, his meteoric ascension may show no signs of slowing.  Even with Rutschman securely entrenched at catcher, Basallo could push for inclusion on the team by year's end.  I wouldn't go so far as to call him untouchable, but he's special enough for that to be given serious consideration.
• Norby (23.8) has a bat that seems ready for the big leagues, but with no obvious defensive home, his future in Baltimore is muddied.  He can play 2B in a pinch but would not be an option there long term, and may be destined to be a DH/LF.  Of all of our prospects, Norby stands out as the one that actually is expendable, but he alone may not be able to bring back the sort of difference maker we'd want.
• Kjerstad (25.1) and Cowser (24.0) are both ready for the show and with the entire outfield's future in doubt, there are opportunities for both. With that said, Kjerstad's defense in RF could push him to DH/1B.  Cowser seems primed to push Hays for playing time in LF, and while Mullins has no heir in CF and may remain until Bradfield is deemed ready, Cowser may see time there as well.  Santander seems secure as our starting RF, but as a FA at year's end, it's not out of the realm of possibility to see him dealt.

*ages as of opening day are listed in parentheses

Based on these many scenarios, things may become more clear this Spring, enabling Elias to pull off a big deal, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him waiting until the deadline to pull the trigger.  Thoughts?

Great post!

I've been saying almost the same thing, albeit not as well, for months.  All the prospects are still being evaluated.  The fact that we won 100 games just means we are ahead of his schedule.  It's also why I think we don't make a trade to acquire a SP and will just either sit tight while using pieces we have developing to fill roles and continue to be evaluated and also why we would likely not spend too much in FA SP.  We've been patient and this is what we have.  A little more patience is necessary to make sure we don't cast off a package of players who could be a part of this team for a substantial time.

[oriole]

It’s probably worth mentioning that Elias has probably been told that he can’t do much spending. John needs his mansions and yachts or whatever greedy rich people do with their money. So the only way the Orioles will be able to compete is with young CHEAP talent. It’s counter productive to move that talent when that’s the ticket to extended success. So with the current batch of guys in the high minors, he has one shot really…whoever he trades had better work out because there will be no help in free agency and guys like Rutschman and Henderson will likely be gone once they get into arbitration. Maybe not both, but if these guys that we hope become bonafide superstar level players, they’re gonna be making a lot of money and there’s no way that current O’s ownership will be digging themselves out of the bottom of the league in payroll. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, Safelykept said:

No McCann Hes a CWS  troll, Troll back. See my post

...or you could just ask like an adult and ignore him maybe? 

[Hazmat]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Is there some MLB GM Infinity Gauntlet where GMs have to gather specific stones in order to test themselves as general managers? And is one of those MLB GM Infinity Stones “have to trade prospects for great MLB talent” upon which they’ll unlock a World Series championship?

[wildcard]

7 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

From @Tony-OH's writeup on Norby in his November, 2022 Top Prospects feature:

 

Now, if Tony's opinion/information on Norby's D at 2B has changed since then, I submit I could be wrong, but I have not read anything that supports that.  Tony?

The quote is from Tony's November 2023 report on Norby.   I will respect the\at Tony knows more than I do about Norby.

Edited January 21 by wildcard

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

 

Kjerstad:    You say Kjerstad is ready for the  majors.   Well his bat probably is.   But defensively he has played 180 games in the minors and majors in the field.   Are we really sure he can't learn to be a better outfielder?   Does he need to play at AAA longer to be  prepared to play right or first baseman?   

 

Obviously I have defer to Tony, who’s watched a lot of minor league games and film, and talked to scouts.   But from what I saw of Kjerstad last spring training, he’s a perfectly adequate major league RF.   I wouldn’t hold him back from the majors to get him more experience in RF.  Now, if they want him to work on 1B, I could see having him do that in the minors.  

[Moose Milligan]

46 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

That’s how I picture it yes 

[Greg Pappas]

39 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The quote is from Tony's November 2023 report on Norby.   I will respect the Tony knows more than I do about Norby.

It says Posted November 13, 2022.  Maybe I'm missing something?

[bpilktree]

4 hours ago, oriole said:

It’s probably worth mentioning that Elias has probably been told that he can’t do much spending. John needs his mansions and yachts or whatever greedy rich people do with their money. So the only way the Orioles will be able to compete is with young CHEAP talent. It’s counter productive to move that talent when that’s the ticket to extended success. So with the current batch of guys in the high minors, he has one shot really…whoever he trades had better work out because there will be no help in free agency and guys like Rutschman and Henderson will likely be gone once they get into arbitration. Maybe not both, but if these guys that we hope become bonafide superstar level players, they’re gonna be making a lot of money and there’s no way that current O’s ownership will be digging themselves out of the bottom of the league in payroll. 

If that is the case you move Hays or Santder, Mateo, and Urias and go with the young guys and save a lot of money.  Now we still have 4 weeks left but I said the biggest question mark was what would happen with roster crunch, would they deal some veterans to open up spots for the younger guys to play and get feet wet or would they deal the young guys go for a proven pitcher or two.  Almost 4 months in and we still have no idea what we they might go.  There is so many guys in either majors or AAA that I don’t even know how you get enough quality at bats in spring training for all these guys to get any read on them.  You can get them some st bats early on vs double guys and spring invites but these don’t need to prove anything vs those level guys.  

[wildbillhiccup]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Obviously I have defer to Tony, who’s watched a lot of minor league games and film, and talked to scouts.   But from what I saw of Kjerstad last spring training, he’s a perfectly adequate major league RF.   I wouldn’t hold him back from the majors to get him more experience in RF.  Now, if they want him to work on 1B, I could see having him do that in the minors.  

I have the same opinion. And It's not like we'd be asking Kjerstad to exactly replace a Gold Glover. I know Santander has made some strides, but he still, at times, looks somewhat unathletic and uncomfortable in RF. At least to me. 

[OriolesMagic83]

19 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I have the same opinion. And It's not like we'd be asking Kjerstad to exactly replace a Gold Glover. I know Santander has made some strides, but he still, at times, looks somewhat unathletic and uncomfortable in RF. At least to me. 

Yeah I get that Santander hits his share of HR, but Kjerstad will hit some HR too.  Maybe 20 HR instead of 30 HR.  I think the offense won't be much of a drop off and neither will the defense.  I feel like Elias is too careful at times.  This isn't the Dodgers or Yankees, the O's need to take some chances to compete with the big market teams. 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

It says Posted November 13, 2022.  Maybe I'm missing something?

Same wording in Tony's November 2023 review of Norby.

Edited January 21 by wildcard

[SemperFi]

I truly have a hard time believing ME turned down the SF job-knowing all we know about him to accept the Orioles position without a shared vision of what payroll would be.  Although I am often wrong I think there are three distinct things in play:

-ME, Eve and Sig value prospects and the cost structure associated with them much more than risky FA pitchers (and ME is not suprised by the market-he knows exactly what it is)

-The "shared vision" has been compromised by PA's status and JA is doing everything he can to maximize value for an anticipated sale

-ME has to hold placemarks in his budget for possible extentions and arb increasses, this team will get expensive quickly.

The Orioles are an LP, JA can't simply use them as a bank and I have a hard time believing that all excess profit is simply distributed to him and partners.  That money is sitting somewhere (unless used to offset losses from the Covid/tanking period) and is most easily unlocked and distributed upon a sale.  

 

 

[Roll Tide]

23 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think those questions on defense should have been answered by now.

I agree …. It’s my general feeling that Elias is equivalent to a hoarder. If it was just Cease then it’s possible to put all the blame on Getz. But, he was chincy getting a rotation upgrade at the deadline picking up a mid 4 ERA pitcher. There are other guys he could reasonably get if he was willing to deal some real value. I’m not suggesting 3 or 4 of out top prospects but should be able to get that mid rotation or better guy with of them as a centerpiece.

Weve heard Holiday was untouchable, heard similar things this past season that another guy or two was on that list. Now there are rumors about teams interested in Basallo and no interest in moving him. I have to think every prospect about Ortiz is probably on that list.

[Tony-OH]

21 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

From @Tony-OH's writeup on Norby in his November, 2022 Top Prospects feature:

 

Now, if Tony's opinion/information on Norby's D at 2B has changed since then, I submit I could be wrong, but I have not read anything that supports that.  Tony?

No, my opinion has not changed. Wildcard has always believed sources like MLB.com over mine for as long as I can remember. To each is own.

Norby is a well below average defender at 2B who will make some nice plays here and there, but will also make some head scratching errors. Has he improved some in his minor league time, sure, but I still feel he's a below average defender at 2B and would like to see what he can do in LF and even maybe some CF to see if he handle it as a 4th outfielder type.