Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes (Update: Acquired for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall)

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, spleen1015 said:

Neither one of them belong on this team. Replace them with Mayo and Holliday coming out of ST so that they can get the "I'm going to suck a little my first 100-150 AB in the majors" out of the way as early as possible. They'll still be better than Mateo at least.

I don’t have any issue with this. Personally, I’m extending all of these guys soon, so I don’t care about the service time stuff.

That said, I think it is fair to say you want Mayo working on his defense, especially playing new positions at first and RF and Holliday continuing to work on his SS defense before bringing them up.

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Roster construction means a lot here. I lean towards preferring Urias because he has a better bat and more versatility. 

Sure, but he isn't plus at anything. I don't really see him as a top 3 option at any infield position.

2B - Holliday, Westburg / Norby 

SS- Gunnar, Mateo, Holliday

3B - Westburg, Gunnar / Mayo

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Sure, but only if the third infielder is only a 2B. Hypothetically, if Westburg were strictly 2B-only, then Gunnar could be a superior SS to Holliday and it still makes sense to be Gunnar 3B and Holliday SS because that on net is better than putting Holliday at 3B. 

However, Westburg is not 2B-only. And Mayo is 3B-only.  I see these potential outcomes:

1. Gunnar better than Holliday at SS, Westburg equivalent at 2B/3B: Gunnar SS, Westburg 3B, Holliday 2B

2. Holliday better than Gunnar at SS, Westburg equivalent at 2B/3B: Holliday SS, Gunnar 3B, Westburg 2B

3. Westburg arm too limiting at 3B, needs to play 2B: Holliday SS, Gunnar 3B, Westburg 2B

4. Mayo primary 3B and Westburg more UTIL (or traded): Gunnar SS, Mayo 3B, Holliday 2B. 

Right now it seems pretty clear we’re in universe (1), I don’t think anybody thinks Holliday is a better SS than Gunnar right now. And because (3) and (4) are pretty remote possibilities, in practice the only way Holliday is going to be the SS is if he’s actually a better SS than Gunnar. That could definitely happen eventually but it doesn’t seem like we’re there yet. 

I don’t think Westburg has anything to do with what they do at third and SS. He’s not a SS at all and Gunnar is better than him at third and Mayo may be as well.

I think Westburg can be a ML third baseman but I don’t think he has much of a chance to be one here.  So while he’s not “just a second baseman” and will likely get spot starts at third at times, I think we need to consider him As only a second baseman unless of course, Holliday doesn’t show improvement and can’t play at SS at the ML level.

To me, the bottom line to all of this is how does Holliday improve.  Tony laid things out pretty well imo. That is really what this conversation was about…can Holliday improve over and there and he be an asset at the ML level as a SS.   If he can, I think the answer becomes easy and obvious for this question.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Sure, but he isn't plus at anything. I don't really see him as a top 3 option at any infield position.

2B - Holliday, Westburg / Norby 

SS- Gunnar, Mateo, Holliday

3B - Westburg, Gunnar / Mayo

 

I still think Urias is plus at 3B when healthy. He had a bad hammy all last year. Now that Ortiz is gone, I see Urias as the main UTIL IF. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Sure, but he isn't plus at anything. I don't really see him as a top 3 option at any infield position.

2B - Holliday, Westburg / Norby 

SS- Gunnar, Mateo, Holliday

3B - Westburg, Gunnar / Mayo

 

No he’s not but guys do need rest days. Injuries will happen, so you need a versatile back up IFer imo and Mateo isn’t that.

[UMDTerrapins]

I love these “problems”!  Similarly, I was thinking to myself “which single player/position, if injured and lost for the year, would compel us to make a mid season trade?”  

[CaptainRedbeard]

Small sample for Westburg defensively last year of course, but he was better as a 3B than 2B by OAA/RAA, better as a 2B than a 3B by DRS, and almost exactly equal by UZR. My recollection is there wasn’t a good consensus in scouting reports beyond him not being a plus SS, and those that questioned his defense either had questions about range as a 2B or arm as a 3B (or both).

To me, he certainly seemed to have good range at 2B and enough arm to play 3B. He made improvements and his defense was definitely better than the scouting reports that were critical, in any case. Maybe he’s better suited to play 2B, I don’t know, but IMO we don’t really have enough evidence to be able to say anything other than he seems about roughly equivalent at both positions. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Small sample for Westburg defensively last year of course, but he was better as a 3B than 2B by OAA/RAA, better as a 2B than a 3B by DRS, and almost exactly equal by UZR. My recollection is there wasn’t a good consensus in scouting reports beyond him not being a plus SS, and those that questioned his defense either had questions about range as a 2B or arm as a 3B (or both).

To me, he certainly seemed to have good range at 2B and enough arm to play 3B. He made improvements and his defense was definitely better than the scouting reports that were critical, in any case. Maybe he’s better suited to play 2B, I don’t know, but IMO we don’t really have enough evidence to be able to say anything other than he seems about roughly equivalent at both positions. 

All I know is the upgrade defensively at 2B from Frazier to Westburg was APPARENT. So refreshing watching him actually get to balls and not fumble transfers from glove to hand. He was a lot better over there than I thought he would be.

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I love these “problems”!  Similarly, I was thinking to myself “which single player/position, if injured and lost for the year, would compel us to make a mid season trade?”  

Well you can probably rule out outfield and infield because of the depth that exists there, although maybe CF. But probably catcher, SP, late inning reliever would be my guess. 

[RZNJ]

Mayo may be better defensively than Westburg at 3B?   If he’s as good as Westburg at 3B he’d be a 100% bet to be our future 3B possibly as soon as OD.   All indications are that the guy who actually played a solid AAA SS and could be passable there in the majors is probably the significantly better defensive 3B.   Westburg’s future certainly does depend on what they do with Mayo.  The fact that Mayo was told to get his outfielder glove ready and played 33% of his AAA games at 1B tells me that Westburg at 3B (if Holliday is at 2B) is a definite possibility.

[CaptainRedbeard]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think Westburg has anything to do with what they do at third and SS. He’s not a SS at all and Gunnar is better than him at third and Mayo may be as well.

I think Westburg can be a ML third baseman but I don’t think he has much of a chance to be one here.  So while he’s not “just a second baseman” and will likely get spot starts at third at times, I think we need to consider him As only a second baseman unless of course, Holliday doesn’t show improvement and can’t play at SS at the ML level.

To me, the bottom line to all of this is how does Holliday improve.  Tony laid things out pretty well imo. That is really what this conversation was about…can Holliday improve over and there and he be an asset at the ML level as a SS.   If he can, I think the answer becomes easy and obvious for this question.

Your point, which is a good one, was that the optimal infield alignment doesn’t necessarily mean playing the best defensive SS at SS. It’s about optimizing the total defense of the 3 infielders at 2B/SS/3B.

But if Westburg is one of those infielders you can’t say he has nothing to do with what they do at 3B and SS. If Westburg is interchangeable at 2B and 3B then there’s no reason not to play your best defensive SS at SS, whether that’s Gunnar or Holliday. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

All I know is the upgrade defensively at 2B from Frazier to Westburg was APPARENT. So refreshing watching him actually get to balls and not fumble transfers from glove to hand. He was a lot better over there than I thought he would be.

100%. But that mostly had to do with Frazier utterly collapsing defensively after being a very good defensive player his whole career, either due to some rapid aging or playing through injury. He was one of the worst 2B in baseball last year. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

This is the other thing that gets lost. I get that people value SS the most but if Gunnar is heads and shoulders better than anyone else at third and say he is viewed as better at SS than Holliday but Holliday is still good over there, the combo or Holliday at SS and Gunnar at third is the better move. You can’t just look at one position and say fill in around it. You have to look at what the best alignment is.

I know the Os like versatility and moving guys around but I have to think once these young kids get established and are AS/MvP type guys, I think they will move them around a lot less.

I agree with all this.  I don’t think the answer of what’s the best overall alignment is clear yet.  Honestly, it might take all of 2024-25 to sort that out, as some of these guys are still developing defensively.   

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Your point, which is a good one, was that the optimal infield alignment doesn’t necessarily mean playing the best defensive SS at SS. It’s about optimizing the total defense of the 3 infielders at 2B/SS/3B.

But if Westburg is one of those infielders you can’t say he has nothing to do with what they do at 3B and SS. If Westburg is interchangeable at 2B and 3B then there’s no reason not to play your best defensive SS at SS, whether that’s Gunnar or Holliday. 

I see what you are saying.  To me the only way this works is if Holliday doesn’t improve at SS and this is the best way to get Westburg and Mayo in the lineup.  It’s possible.

[Can_of_corn]

28 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Your point, which is a good one, was that the optimal infield alignment doesn’t necessarily mean playing the best defensive SS at SS. It’s about optimizing the total defense of the 3 infielders at 2B/SS/3B.

But if Westburg is one of those infielders you can’t say he has nothing to do with what they do at 3B and SS. If Westburg is interchangeable at 2B and 3B then there’s no reason not to play your best defensive SS at SS, whether that’s Gunnar or Holliday. 

I'm going to disagree, it's about maximizing both offensive and defensive production.

If Mayo becomes a solid average 3B the best team alignment has him at third even if it isn't the optimal defensive alignment, since his ceiling on offense is so much higher than say Westburg.