TT: Taking a look at the bullpen now that Hall is gone

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A few thoughts.

1. I agree that losing Hall leaves a void in the bullpen.

2. I mentioned Tanner Scott, a one year rental, previously.   Not sure the Marlins would move him, but he’s the perfect type of guy to compliment Kimbrel.

3. Are any of our current guys capable of taking it to the next level?  In particular, I’m thinking Baumann who averages 96 and has a plus curveball.  His biggest weakness was command and maybe not enough movement on that fastball.

4.  Chayce McDermott and Seth Johnson both have the upper 90’s fastball and plus breaking stuff to be impact relievers.   Why not audition them this spring?   Just as I said for Hall, this wouldn’t close the door on them being starters and might actually be a good thing in that regard.

McDermott would be a guy I'd really be interested in seeing in that role but I really think the Orioles want to develop him still as a starter. McDermott has that swing and miss stuff, but there are also command concerns still so not sure you'd want to start him off in that high impact role, even if they did convert him for this season.

 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It may not be fair, but Baumann strikes me as a pitcher who’s not very cerebral.  He just seems to have dumb pitch sequences and loses focus at times.   When he’s on his game he’s very impressive but other times he’s scream worthy.  That game in Seattle where Mullins made the amazing HR robbery and then Baumann allowed a long homer to the very next batter still sticks in my craw, even though Mullins won the game in extra innings.   

I do think he’s a guy who could become a dominant reliever if the light bulb in his head would go on.  Let’s hope.  
 

Can’t disagree. He looks like a weight room warrior too.  Maybe too much.

[JimGinSP]

I hope Keegan Akin and Nick Vespi are aware of the opportunity that has been created.  We like to think that Hall was the next Andrew Miller.  FWIW, when the trade was descibed it was Ortiz who was shown as the top 100 piece not Hall.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

McDermott would be a guy I'd really be interested in seeing in that role but I really think the Orioles want to develop him still as a starter. McDermott has that swing and miss stuff, but there are also command concerns still so not sure you'd want to start him off in that high impact role, even if they did convert him for this season.

 

Almost sounds like you’re talking about Hall.  

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Almost sounds like you’re talking about Hall.  

Exactly. I know you've seen me call McDermott a right-handed version of Hall because they are very similar. McDermott though has less health concerns and started to make some changes in AAA that made it more promising that he MAY be able to stick as a starter still.

Saying that, I still think the bullpen may end up his best role in the big leagues and he will pitch at 25-years old this year. 

[RZNJ]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Exactly. I know you've seen me call McDermott a right-handed version of Hall because they are very similar. McDermott though has less health concerns and started to make some changes in AAA that made it more promising that he MAY be able to stick as a starter still.

Saying that, I still think the bullpen may end up his best role in the big leagues and he will pitch at 25-years old this year. 

I would still be open to him being a starter in 2025 but used as a high leverage reliever this year.   

[CaptainRedbeard]

Great analysis. There’s plenty of reasons to think the projections are low (particularly for Cano and Coulombe, who were many orders of magnitude better last season than what they’re projected for now, and Wells whose projections still incorporate SP work), but the projections still have the Orioles’ pen as one of the worst in baseball. Trading significant assets for a reliever would be very outside Elias’ approach to date, but the need there is glaring now. I have no idea how he’s going to approach it, but I suspect he’s not going to go the trade route until the deadline, when there are always a ton of RP available, unless he finds a relatively cheap trade he likes before then. 

I think picking up Brasier or another free agent is possible, but it does put the roster construction in a tough spot. If everyone is healthy at the end of Spring Training, to keep everyone out of options they would need to send both Wells and Tate down, and that would leave nobody optionable for the first time you need a fresh arm. 

So, is Elias willing to sign or trade for a RP if it means Baumann or Webb will potentially need to be DFAd (or you otherwise need to option maybe 3 better RPs in Wells, Tate and Baker to keep them)? I would because I think injuries probably sort things out anyway and I’m not too keen on Baumann, but hard to know how Elias feels about it. 

[clapdiddy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

https://orioleshangout.com/2024/02/03/taking-a-look-at-the-bullpen-now-that-hall-is-gone/

Personally, I'd like to see them get another high impact reliever.

I believe that should be priority #1 right now.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I believe that should be priority #1 right now.

I agree. I think that's the last piece for me this off season to feel like it was an A+ off season.

 

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Great analysis. There’s plenty of reasons to think the projections are low (particularly for Cano and Coulombe, who were many orders of magnitude better last season than what they’re projected for now, and Wells whose projections still incorporate SP work), but the projections still have the Orioles’ pen as one of the worst in baseball. Trading significant assets for a reliever would be very outside Elias’ approach to date, but the need there is glaring now. I have no idea how he’s going to approach it, but I suspect he’s not going to go the trade route until the deadline, when there are always a ton of RP available, unless he finds a relatively cheap trade he likes before then. 

I think picking up Brasier or another free agent is possible, but it does put the roster construction in a tough spot. If everyone is healthy at the end of Spring Training, to keep everyone out of options they would need to send both Wells and Tate down, and that would leave nobody optionable for the first time you need a fresh arm. 

So, is Elias willing to sign or trade for a RP if it means Baumann or Webb will potentially need to be DFAd (or you otherwise need to option maybe 3 better RPs in Wells, Tate and Baker to keep them)? I would because I think injuries probably sort things out anyway and I’m not too keen on Baumann, but hard to know how Elias feels about it. 

Baumann would be a guy I'd be willing to package because he's out of options. I guess at this point though, who would be willing to move an impact reliever? 

I know Elias has to know about his bullpen and no matter what he says publically, I'm sure he understands the need for another impact arm. 

He may just have to hope that Baumann, Wells, Webb or Tate step up.

[sportsfan8703]

Ottavino just signed for 6.5 million. He’s a pretty good comp for Brasier. We chose not to get a Ottavino like reliever at the deadline, with a healthy Bautista, and instead ride with Webb. We’re in a different financial situation now where I think Brasier is affordable. 

I’d have the 5 righties on OD as,

Kimbrel, Cano, Brasier, Wells, Webb

So Tate begins the year in AAA. We trade Baumann before DFA’ing him. I favor Webb because he’s willing and capable of being a rubber armed RH. Everyday Webb. Baumann wouldn’t hold up in that role. Webb is a fine bullpen option for the regular season. 

[RZNJ]

@Tony-OH Take a look at Baumann’s Savant page.  The knuckle curve easily looks like his best pitch (.192 avg) but he only threw it 25% of the time.  I’m dreaming but maybe increased usage of that pitch and some improvement in command and we might have something.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I agree. I think that's the last piece for me this off season to feel like it was an A+ off season.

 

Rubenstein was enough for me to call it an A+ season.  But on the field, I agree.  

[Jim'sKid26]

I'd like to see a serious run at a couple of trades for relievers.

David Bednar from Pittsburgh was mentioned in trade rumors last year. He's the kind of guys the O's should target. He is using his four-seamer more to great success. In 2022, hitters hit .243 against his fastball and that’s dipped to .181 in 2023. He’s also getting hitters to chase a higher percentage of the four-seamers thrown outside the zone. In 2023, his O-Sw% has climbed from 34.4% in 2022 to 41.2% in 2023, which put him in the 99th percentile. The Pirates just signed Chapman so they might be willing to listen to an offer for Bednar. He will be costly, however. Pittsburgh will want a ton of talent for him.

 

Also, Bryan Abreu from Houston. He's not a closer so he might not be as expensive as some others but he is very good. His ERA for 2023 was 1.94 and his WHIP is 1.08 which is improved from 2022. He also had 90 Ks in 65 IP, good for a SO/9 rate of 12.5. Last season he had 88 Ks in 60.1 IP.

[dystopia]

37 minutes ago, JimGinSP said:

I hope Keegan Akin and Nick Vespi are aware of the opportunity that has been created.  We like to think that Hall was the next Andrew Miller.  FWIW, when the trade was descibed it was Ortiz who was shown as the top 100 piece not Hall.  

If we’re counting on those two to step it up then we’ve got a problem. 
 

They should be depth only.