Kyle Bradish Has Sprained UCL, Will Start Season On IL (4/9 Update: Assigned rehab assignment w/Aberdeen)

[Frobby]

I won’t be that surprised either way.  Just crossing my fingers that it works out for Bradish.  If some people enjoy assuming that the worst outcome is a fait accompli, good for them.  

[Just Regular]

It was nice to see on a spot check Bradish got about another $1.6M out of the pre-Arb pool for the outstanding performance last year.     I think that probably about doubles his lifetime earnings to date from his playing career, and agents and the overhead of being an elite athlete probably burn through a lot of that first million.

Grayson OTOH has that First Five already, so if he can earn as much or more from the 2024 pre-Arb pool it'll still be a tidy percentage but shy of double.

[jabba72]

Im not expecting Bradish to be able to throw 100 pitches for 30 starts this year with a strained UCL.

Might as well get the TJ as soon as he realizes max effort isnt working.

[Moose Milligan]

Hoping for the best, fully prepared for the worst.

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Im not expecting Bradish to be able to throw 100 pitches for 30 starts this year with a strained UCL.

Might as well get the TJ as soon as he realizes max effort isnt working.

If he realizes max effort isn’t working.  

You don’t need to worry about him making 30 starts.   In the most optimistic scenario he’d make maybe 24 starts this year.   

I’ll leave it to the medical professionals and trainers who have examined and are working with Bradish to figure out his odds of pitching this year.   I’m not a doctor, and even if I was, we have scant information about the initial degree of the tear or how the tear has responded to PRP.    This is way more nuanced than “all UCL tears lead to TJ surgery.”  

 

[Spy Fox]

I think the popular “might as well get the TJ” idea is a little overoptimistic about TJ recovery. Yes most MLB level guys come back and can perform well, but there’s also plenty of guys who were never quite the same, whether because of the TJ Itself or other complications along the way. Look at Dylan Bundy. Or look at how we talk about John Means 2 years after his surgery. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I think the popular “might as well get the TJ” idea is a little overoptimistic about TJ recovery. Yes most MLB level guys come back and can perform well, but there’s also plenty of guys who were never quite the same, whether because of the TJ Itself or other complications along the way. Look at Dylan Bundy. Or look at how we talk about John Means 2 years after his surgery. 

While I 100% agree with your overall point and have stated the same I don't like the Bundy example because of his shoulder calcification issue.  He's a unique case.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

I think the popular “might as well get the TJ” idea is a little overoptimistic about TJ recovery. Yes most MLB level guys come back and can perform well, but there’s also plenty of guys who were never quite the same, whether because of the TJ Itself or other complications along the way. Look at Dylan Bundy. Or look at how we talk about John Means 2 years after his surgery. 

I get your point, but I'm not sure that Dylan Bundy s the best example to make the case. Bundy hadn't established himself at the MLB level before the surgery so we have no idea if his struggles were surgery-related or if he was just a prospect who never lived up the hype. And to be honest he's at least been a serviceable MLB starter for most of his career. His career ERA isn't that much higher than Kyle Gibson's. 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I get your point, but I'm not sure that Dylan Bundy s the best example to make the case. Bundy hadn't established himself at the MLB level before the surgery so we have no idea if his struggles were surgery-related or if he was just a prospect who never lived up the hype. And to be honest he's at least been a serviceable MLB starter for most of his career. His career ERA isn't that much higher than Kyle Gibson's. 

Bundy is a tough case because he had the shoulder calcification also.  My memory is that Bundy was a mid to high 90’s guy when his career started at Delmarva with easy velocity.  I thought he looked off at the Futures game that year where it looked like he was going max effort just to hit 94-95.  By the time he pitched in the majors that September I recall him being 91-93.  I  think he went  down the next spring.   For whatever reason the velocity never came back.

[Since1984]

Bundy’s fastball dropped 5 mph after the surgery. He was still a good pitcher, at times,  and did get us Bradish from the Angels. Wish we could have seen him pitch in MLB games before the elbow and shoulder issues!

[wildcard]

Mike Elias said on MLB Network that Bradish would possibly be back in the first half.   Though that is definitive its the first time I have heard O's management put any kind of time frame on Bradish return.

So I will think by the All Star break for now if all goes well.

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/mike-elias-discusses-success-of-the-orioles

 

Edited March 1 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Mike Elias said on MLB Network that Bradish would possibly be back in the first half.   Though that is definitive its the first time I have heard O's management put any kind of time frame on Bradish return.

So I will think by the All Star break for now if all goes well.

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/mike-elias-discusses-success-of-the-orioles

 

He actually answered with Means and Bradish, collectively, as being back possibly soon in the first half.  Your timeline might be correct.  I suggest people click on the link.   Thanks for providing it.

 

[Going Underground]

Until Bradish starts throwing off a mound  and how he progresses it is all just speculation.  Should have a much better idea after that.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Going Underground said:

Until Bradish starts throwing off a mound  and how he progresses it is all just speculation.  Should have a much better idea after that.

Right.   I hope that happens before the end of ST but that’s probably a best case.

[baltfan]

On 2/25/2024 at 4:21 PM, RZNJ said:

Bundy is a tough case because he had the shoulder calcification also.  My memory is that Bundy was a mid to high 90’s guy when his career started at Delmarva with easy velocity.  I thought he looked off at the Futures game that year where it looked like he was going max effort just to hit 94-95.  By the time he pitched in the majors that September I recall him being 91-93.  I  think he went  down the next spring.   For whatever reason the velocity never came back.

Yep, even when he came up to the MLB at first the velo was never what he had in MILB.