Name one O's player to make the big difference in 2024?

[Aglets]

Having an actual Cy Young award winner as the #1 starter seems like it will make a pretty big difference.

[foxfield]

I am still giddy at the vast range of possibilities here. And yet, being near the top presents its own challenges. There are no assurances as the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Padres, Braves and Phillies know. 

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, WI O’s Fan said:

Colton Cowser.  Have a listen to the Pressbox with Eric_Birdland.

 

Fun interview.  As always, Eric was super-positive on almost every player he discussed.  I don’t consider him to be someone with scouting chops, but I enjoy his observations and enthusiasm nevertheless.  

The one negative thing he said - and maybe the first time I’ve ever heard him say something negative - is that he thinks Ramon Urias may be on the decline physically.  Something to watch for if that’s coming from him.  

Otherwise, here’s what I heard:

- Holliday is bigger and stronger, can hit with the more experienced guys in terms of strength, and his throws from SS look very accurate.

- Mayo has been playing 3B exclusively, and his throws also have been accurate.  Offensively he’s crushing it.  

- Cowser put on some muscle across his chest.  Garfield thinks he’s a little ahead of Kjerstad due to defense.  

- Norby looking good in all phases but blocked by Westburg and Holliday.  Garfield says he looks good on defense and plays LF well.  

- Westburg looking same as last year, not a guy who’s put on weight or muscle in the offseason.  

- Adley is the best player on the team, showing a lot of leadership among the catcher group.  

- Grayson showing a ton of confidence and leadership among the pitcher group.  

- Povich looking very tough on lefties, also doing well vs. righties.  

- Johnson looking very athletic, but needs to work on not tipping his pitches. Says you can see what pitch he’s throwing from 100 feet away.

- At the end, he lauded Maverick Handley.  Said he is very quick on transferring the ball on his throws now, also hitting with a lot of power.  Envisions Handley as the bridge from McCann to Basallo.   








 

[Can_of_corn]

I'm trying to get over the idea that the expert here said don't look at actual data just look at the film I shot.

Wot?

[TommyPickles]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think the “veteran leadership” we’d get from Means is a bit overblown.  He’s thrown 10 more big league innings than Dean Kremer, while making 3 more big league appearances and one fewer big league start.   He’ll probably be behind Kremer in all three categories by the time he takes the mound this year.  

That said, I’m certainly hoping that a brief delay to his season is the only hiccup he’ll have this year health-wise, and that he pitches as well as he has in past seasons.  
 

That's fair. And I certainly don't know how these pitchers feel about each other behind closed doors. But I do feel like Means might have a bit more gravitas in the clubhouse than Kremer.

He's almost three years older. He debuted two seasons before Kremer. He's started two opening days. He's been an All Star. He finished runner-up for the AL ROY. At the very least, his ceiling is higher.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm trying to get over the idea that the expert here said don't look at actual data just look at the film I shot.

Wot?

Who’s the “expert?”   Eric Garfield?   Well in fairness to him, the data on Holliday’s arm is from last year, Garfield’s film is from this week.  But in any event, Eric’s not an expert, and I wouldn’t say he claims to be one.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Who’s the “expert?”   Eric Garfield?   Well in fairness to him, the data on Holliday’s arm is from last year, Garfield’s film is from this week.  But in any event, Eric’s not an expert, and I wouldn’t say he claims to be one.  

I was trying to use a complimentary term to describe the guest.

I think telling folks to not look at actual recorded data is a poor take.

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

That's fair. And I certainly don't know how these pitchers feel about each other behind closed doors. But I do feel like Means might have a bit more gravitas in the clubhouse than Kremer.

He's almost three years older. He debuted two seasons before Kremer. He's started two opening days. He's been an All Star. He finished runner-up for the AL ROY. At the very least, his ceiling is higher.

These are fair points.  I’m not really suggesting that Kremer is Means’ equal as a pitcher.   I’m just saying that Means has shockingly few games/innings under his belt for a guy who’s a year from free agency.  

Anyway, I like both pitchers.   
 

[Just Regular]

Like high school RHP since forever, Grayson Rodriguez probably has the widest range of outcomes between what he is and could be.

He threw 3000 game pitches in 2023 and has his health at age 24.3 today.

I hope for about 35 iterations of 2-3 day periods in which Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez pitch baseball games consecutively, and for Grayson's agent next winter to get to be able to look at the Corbin Burnes contract as some kind of a yardstick how to price a FA season.

 

[jamalshw]

This is a hard question to answer as it could mean so many different things.

The biggest difference from last year? Burnes or Holliday are certainly the leading candidates. 

The player with the biggest potential to impact the team from a perspective of the biggest variable in what he could be? Mullins is an option here. Same with Holliday. Or even Bradish as he could be the guy he was last year from mid-May on or he could not pitch at all. That's quite an impactful swing. Cano is another option given the loss of Bautista, the understanding of what Kimbrel is, and the loss of Wells, Hall and Irvin from the pen (at least for a time). 

Or is this just the guy that is most different because he breaks out and is most improved? In that case, maybe Cowser? 

[Can_of_corn]

Kimbrel, I think he's a big step down at the back of the pen and his history is going to give him additional chances to disappoint.

[interloper]

32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Kimbrel, I think he's a big step down at the back of the pen and his history is going to give him additional chances to disappoint.

lol

Sure, I guess that's technically a difference. 

[Can_of_corn]

30 minutes ago, interloper said:

lol

Sure, I guess that's technically a difference. 

OP didn't say positive difference.

O's bullpen was nails last season.

[Ohfan67]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

O's bullpen was nails last season.

Bullpen performance is weird because it's evaluated over relatively small sample sizes and the relationship between things like strikeouts and outcomes is not 100% (especially in small sample sizes). The Orioles bullpen had a 61% save rate in 2023, almost exactly MLB average. Bautista had an 85% save rate and Kimbrel had an 82% save rate (Cano had a 57% save rate, for comparison). A couple of closers saved 90%. Bautista was a lot of fun to watch and deserved the confidence that most of us had in him, but a number of closers were ultimately just as effective even though they weren't lighting up the radar gun and scaring the crap out of opposing hitters. I'm hopeful that Kimbrel has a good year and that the loss of Bautista is absorbable. Fingers crossed. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Bullpen performance is weird because it's evaluated over relatively small sample sizes and the relationship between things like strikeouts and outcomes is not 100% (especially in small sample sizes). The Orioles bullpen had a 61% save rate in 2023, almost exactly MLB average. Bautista had an 85% save rate and Kimbrel had an 82% save rate (Cano had a 57% save rate, for comparison). A couple of closers saved 90%. Bautista was a lot of fun to watch and deserved the confidence that most of us had in him, but a number of closers were ultimately just as effective even though they weren't lighting up the radar gun and scaring the crap out of opposing hitters. I'm hopeful that Kimbrel has a good year and that the loss of Bautista is absorbable. Fingers crossed. 

In the 2023 season Felix Bautista finished second in WPA among relievers (behind the one that got away Tanner Scott).  Kimbrel was 29th at 1.6.

Edited February 23 by Can_of_corn