Name one O's player to make the big difference in 2024?

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

In the 2023 season Felix Bautista finished second in WPA among relievers (behind the one that got away Tanner Scott).  Kimbrel was 29th at 1.6.

I think having Kimbrel is better than not having any Felix replacement. I think he'll be fine for awhile and then he's get bounced out of the closer role eventually. Team needs another bullpen arm or two. 

We were supposed to overcome the lack of Felix with a 3-headed monster rotation. WOOPS. Now our 3rd head is Dean Kremer. And Grayson as a #2 just doesn't feel right to me. I worry about that. 

Offense should be better? Maybe? I dunno man. Bradish injury really just tilts the whole thing in a bad way. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think having Kimbrel is better than not having any Felix replacement. I think he'll be fine for awhile and then he's get bounced out of the closer role eventually. Team needs another bullpen arm or two. 

We were supposed to overcome the lack of Felix with a 3-headed monster rotation. WOOPS. Now our 3rd head is Dean Kremer. And Grayson as a #2 just doesn't feel right to me. I worry about that. 

Offense should be better? Maybe? I dunno man. Bradish injury really just tilts the whole thing in a bad way. 

I don't know.

I'm probably letting my biases get the best of me but it seems that even well run teams put too much emphasis on the idea of a proven closer, to the point in where they bring in a guy that's in decline just because of the resume.

Kimbrel faded late in the season the last two years.  That's not what I want on my playoff contender.

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't know.

I'm probably letting my biases get the best of me but it seems that even well run teams put too much emphasis on the idea of a proven closer, to the point in where they bring in a guy that's in decline just because of the resume.

Kimbrel faded late in the season the last two years.  That's not what I want on my playoff contender.

To me, fading implies someone who got progressively worse and finished badly.  Kimbrel pitched 12 innings in September/October with a 1.50 ERA, 8 H, 6 walks and 18 strikeouts.   He was pretty inconsistent last year but I wouldn't say he faded.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

To me, fading implies someone who got progressively worse and finished badly.  Kimbrel pitched 12 innings in September/October with a 1.50 ERA, 8 H, 6 walks and 18 strikeouts.   He was pretty inconsistent last year but I wouldn't say he faded.

He was left off the playoff roster in 2022 and got removed from the closer role in 2023.

 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

He was left off the playoff roster in 2022 and got removed from the closer role in 2023.

 

Ok. He had a very good last month last year.  Didn't give up a run and saved 3 games in his first 4 playoff games which took him through game one of the NLCS.  Then he sucked the rest of the series.   He didn't fade last year.  That's all I'm saying.   Do you disagree?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Ok. He had a very good last month last year.  Didn't give up a run and saved 3 games in his first 4 playoff games which took him through game one of the NLCS.  Then he sucked the rest of the series.   He didn't fade last year.  That's all I'm saying.   Do you disagree?

Quote

To me, fading implies

I agree that by your definition.

I was, all along, talking about a guy for the playoffs, was why I mentioned the playoffs. 

Quote

That's not what I want on my playoff contender.

I don't want the ball in his hands comes October.

 

I, of course, am also concerned that his K/9 rate was down 1.9 in 2023 and 3.4 in 2022.

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

In the 2023 season Felix Bautista finished second in WPA among relievers (behind the one that got away Tanner Scott).  Kimbrel was 29th at 1.6.

He was 29th out of like 162 players who pitched in relief. Cano was 14th and yet only saved 50 something percent of his opportunities. Do you think Cano would be a better closer than Kimbrel?
 

WPA is context dependent depending on the situation in the game. 
 

Bautista was dominant, no doubt, but in the end he and Kimbrel saved about the same percentage of opportunities. It’s one of the weird things about the small sample sizes associated with the position. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

He was 29th out of like 162 players who pitched in relief. Cano was 14th and yet only saved 50 something percent of his opportunities. Do you think Cano would be a better closer than Kimbrel?
 

WPA is context dependent depending on the situation in the game. 
 

Bautista was dominant, no doubt, but in the end he and Kimbrel saved about the same percentage of opportunities. It’s one of the weird things about the small sample sizes associated with the position. 

I like WPA a lot more than I do saves.

Oh, three run lead with the 7-8-9 guys coming up?  That's a save.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't know.

I'm probably letting my biases get the best of me but it seems that even well run teams put too much emphasis on the idea of a proven closer, to the point in where they bring in a guy that's in decline just because of the resume.

Kimbrel faded late in the season the last two years.  That's not what I want on my playoff contender.

We definitely agree, I just don't have a great answer for who they could have gotten on the free agent market who is both realtistic within the mid-team-sale environment (so... not Hader and those types), and who would be expected to be much better than Kimbrel. I'm sure I'm forgetting some guys, though. 

Would I love for them to have traded for a big time closer instead though? Sure. I still think they should, but it seems doubtful. 

Edited February 23 by interloper

[RZNJ]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree that by your definition.

I was, all along, talking about a guy for the playoffs, was why I mentioned the playoffs. 

I don't want the ball in his hands comes October.

 

I, of course, am also concerned that his K/9 rate was down 1.9 in 2023 and 3.4 in 2022.

Ok.   He didn’t even pitch in the postseason in 2022 so when you said “Kimbrel faded late in the season the last two years”,  I thought you meant he faded in the regular season.

Although his K rate was down from his best years it was actually 1.5 higher per 9 in 2023 compared to 2022.  12.3 is pretty good.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.   He didn’t even pitch in the postseason in 2022 so when you said “Kimbrel faded late in the season the last two years”,  I thought you meant he faded in the regular season.

Although his K rate was down from his best years it was actually 1.5 higher per 9 in 2023 compared to 2022.  12.3 is pretty good.

Yea, he didn't pitch in the postseason, because the Dodgers decided to leave him off the playoff roster.

I think that's relevant.

[Ohfan67]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I like WPA a lot more than I do saves.

Oh, three run lead with the 7-8-9 guys coming up?  That's a save.

But I don't think WPA really accounts for how good the pitcher was at converting saves under different conditions. The 2023 Orioles played a crazy number of tight games, more than many other teams. A season like the O's 2023 season provides more WPA-earning opportunities than many other team's season provides. A strikeout in the 9th when the team is up by one increases WPA more than a strikeout in the 9th when the team is leading by three. At least that's my understanding of how the calculation works. 

 

I'm not really disagreeing with you. We are going to miss Bautista. When he's on his game, Bautista is basically unreplicatable. But Bautista was also scary as heck in some games. I think Kimbrel performed well as a closer last year, overall, and I am optimistic that the drop-off won't be as big as you fear. And part of that is being a good closer isn't that much different from being a really good closer in terms of wins and losses, on average. I am also hopeful that the bullpen will not have to rely so much on Kimbrel. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, he didn't pitch in the postseason, because the Dodgers decided to leave him off the playoff roster.

I think that's relevant.

Of course that’s relevant.  I agree with a lot of what you said about Kimbrel.  It’s just incorrect to say he faded each of the last two seasons.  Pretty sure I showed that he didn’t really fade towards the end of the 2023 season or even the first two rounds plus 1 of the playoffs.  If we’re calling his last 3 games of the playoffs fading, ok, I guess.  LOL

[Three Run Homer]

13 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Grayson Rodriguez. I think he has figured it out. I think his pure stuff is filthy and I think he wants to show everyone that he is a ToR SP. Oriole single season records are going to fall and everyone in baseball is going to notice. 

I don't think single season records are going to fall.  But having Good Grayson all year is going to be the biggest improvement to this team from last year.