What if Holliday is sent down?

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I wonder if we could just do a seven year deal. Wouldn't preclude us from extending another couple years later but for now it would eliminate the service time discussion and get him up to go for ROY and help the team now. We do take on some risk but we get the seventh year guaranteed.

I don’t get why you would only sign Holliday for 7 years.  You can ensure you get him for the 7th year anyway although maybe it hurts you this year.

That said, I don’t get why you take on the risk of a long term deal to only get one extra year out of it.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Is this true? I thought the downside is that if they win ROY then they get the full year of service time regardless of when they're called up. I haven't read anything in articles about that affecting the draft pick, though the later they come up, the less likely they are to win ROY.

I'm not entirely convinced he's ready yet in his 22 PA. His numbers look good now, but he got a gift triple yesterday and before the game, his OPS was under .700. I see it as a 50-50 whether he makes the team and it'll become more evident once we have a couple more weeks of results to look at.

If Adley had won RoY the O's would not have received a pick.  The player has to start the year on the team.*

 

*If Adley was on the 40 man and started the season on the IL I do not know if the team would have been eligible.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

I also don't think he's near as read as Adley was to hit the ground running.

 

We’ll see. He’s a better hitter and more talented than Adley..but Adley was a college guy who had more MiL experience. He was likely more polished.

But sometimes pure talent just beats all of that out.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I also don't think he's near as read as Adley was to hit the ground running.

 

Did Adley hit the ground running?

 

After his 44th game Adley was hitting .210 with a .684 OPS.  I’ll take Holliday and the Over.

Edited March 6 by RZNJ

[ThisIsBirdland]

8 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Is this true? I thought the downside is that if they win ROY then they get the full year of service time regardless of when they're called up. I haven't read anything in articles about that affecting the draft pick, though the later they come up, the less likely they are to win ROY.

I'm not entirely convinced he's ready yet in his 22 PA. His numbers look good now, but he got a gift triple yesterday and before the game, his OPS was under .700. I see it as a 50-50 whether he makes the team and it'll become more evident once we have a couple more weeks of results to look at.

Player has to be on your opening day roster for team to qualify for the draft pick, I believe. Player gets the year of service time regardless of when they are called up.

[SilverRocket]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If Adley had won RoY the O's would not have received a pick.  The player has to start the year on the team.*

Okay, I found this: https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-performance-incentive-ppi-eligible-players

Quote

"an MLB club can earn a Draft pick after the first round if a PPI-eligible player accrues one year of service as a rookie and then factors into a major award."

"Players with little or no MLB service time need to break camp with the team or be called up within two weeks of Opening Day."

So the threshold is that he needs the earn that full year of service time naturally. He doesn't have to be up on opening day but he also can't be down long enough to normally avoid the full year of service time. So if he starts in the minors but Urias gets injured two weeks in and he comes up then, it's still fine.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I did the third option, but it’s more that I think there a big positives and negatives to either approach. If they think he’s ready to be a 4+ WAR player right now then they probably should have him on the Opening Day roster. The additional 2+ wins now and the ROY pick probably outweigh the additional year of control.

However if they think he’s more like a 2 WAR player right now, the smart thing would be to send him down until we pass Super 2.

I think he’s probably more like 2 WAR than 4 WAR, but the Orioles could easily conclude that he’s much better than that right now. 

[Pickles]

35 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Did Adley hit the ground running?

 

After his 44th game Adley was hitting .210 with a .684 OPS.  I’ll take Holliday and the Over.

Adley finished 12th in the MVP race his rookie season despite missing 6 weeks.

I'll take the over on Holliday.

Edited March 6 by Pickles

[Pickles]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We’ll see. He’s a better hitter and more talented than Adley..but Adley was a college guy who had more MiL experience. He was likely more polished.

But sometimes pure talent just beats all of that out.

I'm not sure he's more talented than Adley.  Adley was a consensus #1 pick.

Talent-wise they're pretty close, imo, though sure, Gunnar projects as a better pure hitter.

But Adley was 4+ years older with a lot more high-level experience.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm not sure he's more talented than Adley.  Adley was a consensus #1 pick.

Talent-wise they're pretty close, imo, though sure, Gunnar projects as a better pure hitter.

But Adley was 4+ years older with a lot more high-level experience.

He’s definitely more talented which speaks more to him than it does Adley. He has more power, better hit tool, more speed, far younger, etc…Adley is more important though.

To me, Adley is the 3rd most talented player on the team (if Holliday makes it) and I think Mayo and Basallo could/will be more talented too.

Saying that, I think Adley has a really good shot at MVP this year. The importance of Adley can’t be understated.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s definitely more talented which speaks more to him than it does Adley. He has more power, better hit tool, more speed, far younger, etc…Adley is more important though.

To me, Adley is the 3rd most talented player on the team (if Holliday makes it) and I think Mayo and Basallo could/will be more talented too.

Saying that, I think Adley has a really good shot at MVP this year. The importance of Adley can’t be understated.

Well what is "talent" if it doesn't manifest into value?

Adley has more arm and glove talent.  Their power is pretty comparable, while Holliday does have a better hit tool and speed.

While you value Adley appropriately for being a catcher, you don't seem to attribute it to talent.  But it is.  It takes talent to be as good defensively as Adley is, and nobody else in the system, at this point, projects to provide the defensive value that Adley does.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well what is "talent" if it doesn't manifest into value?

Adley has more arm and glove talent.  Their power is pretty comparable, while Holliday does have a better hit tool and speed.

While you value Adley appropriately for being a catcher, you don't seem to attribute it to talent.  But it is.  It takes talent to be as good defensively as Adley is, and nobody else in the system, at this point, projects to provide the defensive value that Adley does.

I’m not sure the power is comparable. Holliday has higher EVs. His power upside is higher.

I don’t think you are reading what I’m saying correctly. I think Adley is extremely talented. I just think we happen to have an organization right now where they are 2 and maybe as many as 4 guys more talented.  It’s quite possible that in a few years, the Os will have 5 of the 20 most talented players in the sport. 
 

Adley has to be more consistent with his throwing before you put that last statement in there.  
 

 

Edited March 6 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Adley finished 12th in the MVP race his rookie season despite missing 6 weeks.

I'll take the over on Holliday.

Adley had a great first season.   I wouldn’t expect Holliday to be as valuable (although it wouldn’t shock me) over his first season but Adley certainly didn’t hit the ground running.  I think Holliday wouldn’t get off to the sluggish start Adley did.   You insinuated that Holliday would have more growing pains than Adley did.  I don’t think so.  This kid has adapted to each level and new challenge like a champ.

[BirdinBama]

I really want to see him on the opening day roster.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Adley had a great first season.   I wouldn’t expect Holliday to be as valuable (although it wouldn’t shock me) over his first season but Adley certainly didn’t hit the ground running.  I think Holliday wouldn’t get off to the sluggish start Adley did.   You insinuated that Holliday would have more growing pains than Adley did.  I don’t think so.  This kid has adapted to each level and new challenge like a champ.

You are free to have your opinion.  

Common sense would suggest the 24 year old with more experience is more "ready" than the 20 year old with less experience.