The Importance of our Outfield Prospects

[Sanfran327]

Maybe this doesn't deserve its own thread - merge if needed. But the spring showings from Cowser and Stowers, however little faith you want to put in them (the results, not the players), has me thinking that our outfield prospects could be the difference between being good and great. We know our infield is set for a while. Lots of blue chippers all over the infield at all 5 positions. But the outfield doesn't get as much love, probably due to the lackluster stints that Cowser and Stowers had in Baltimore last year (and the year before for Stowers IIRC). 

No doubt our team strength is the infield, but if the outfield joins the party, that's going to be huge. Santander is the only consistent contributor at the moment, while Hays and Mullins struggle to stay on the field and contribute offensively when they're available. 

It's unlikely that all 3 pan out, but if we can go L/C/RF with Stowers, Cowser, and Kjerstad (who I view as more of a DH), we could be looking at a lineup with very few holes offensively or defensively. A pretty exciting thought to me.

[interloper]

I agree it's a big question. Can one of these guys turn into a real deal all-star or better? Or will they end up kind of fringe-y MLers? 

I think the odds are GOOD that they can replace the production of Hays and Santander, I just don't know yet about exceeding their production. We still have a CF problem coming up IMO, with Bradfield (I think) needing a lot more time to cook and develop, and Cowser nowhere close to Mullins' ability out there. 

Cowser seems to have the best tools to approach a guy like Kyle Tucker, but might ultimately just have too much swing and miss in his game to get there. 

[sportsfan8703]

They're pretty important considering that Santa is a FA after this season, and Mullins/Hays are FA after next season.  That's all three OF spots that will need replaced within the next two years, and potentially next offseason.  I think we'll keep Hays through next year, and just let him walk in FA.  Similar to what we did with Santa, and for similar reasons.  Value on the team, versus what his trade value would even be.  Mullins is the one that will likely be traded this offseason.  We could look to trade him in a deal for a SP, or accept the best prospect deal we can get.  

Players with their replacements

Santa - Kjerstad

Mullins - EBJ

Hays - Stowers/Beavers, and maybe Fabian as a RH OF

Cowser is already here pretty much and will remain with 6 service years of control.  

Edited March 20 by sportsfan8703

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

Santander is the only consistent contributor at the moment, while Hays and Mullins struggle to stay on the field and contribute offensively when they're available. 

 

One of my jobs on OH is to counter the annoying narrative that Hays “struggles to stay on the field.”   I feel there’s a large group of posters who remember the difficulties Hays had earlier in his career but ignore three years of durability.  Over those three years, he’s 20th among all major league outfielders in plate appearances, having qualified for the batting title all three years.  Santander is 18th, with 64 more PA than Hays.   Mullins is 13th, despite last year’s injuries.  All three have been quite durable relative to other outfielders around MLB.  And in that stretch:

Mullins 11.2 fWAR, 12.7 rWAR

Hays 6.2 fWAR, 8.1 rWAR

Santander 5.7 fWAR, 5.6 rWAR

So, I don’t buy the narrative that Santander is more available and productive than the other two, or that he’s the only one who’s reliable.   Your statement only rings true if you pay attention solely to 2023, and even then, it’s an overstatement IMO.

As to our younger guys, I’m rooting for them to turn out to be better than the guys they’ll ultimately be replacing, but the current group is good IMO and I’m not counting on the younger guys to turn out better, though I hope they do.

 

[sportsfan8703]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One of my jobs on OH is to counter the annoying narrative that Hays “struggles to stay on the field.”   I feel there’s a large group of posters who remember the difficulties Hays had earlier in his career but ignore three years of durability.  Over those three years, he’s 20th among all major league outfielders in plate appearances, having qualified for the batting title all three years.  Santander is 18th, with 64 more PA than Hays.   Mullins is 13th, despite last year’s injuries.  All three have been quite durable relative to other outfielders around MLB.  And in that stretch:

Mullins 11.2 fWAR, 12.7 rWAR

Hays 6.2 fWAR, 8.1 rWAR

Santander 5.7 fWAR, 5.6 rWAR

So, I don’t buy the narrative that Santander is more available and productive than the other two, or that he’s the only one who’s reliable.   Your statement only rings true if you pay attention solely to 2023, and even then, it’s an overstatement IMO.

As to our younger guys, I’m rooting for them to turn out to be better than the guys they’ll ultimately be replacing, but the current group is good IMO and I’m not counting on the younger guys to turn out better, though I hope they do.

 

I think people lump Hays in with Reimold.  RH OF, toolsy, white dudes.  

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One of my jobs on OH is to counter the annoying narrative that Hays “struggles to stay on the field.”   I feel there’s a large group of posters who remember the difficulties Hays had earlier in his career but ignore three years of durability.  Over those three years, he’s 20th among all major league outfielders in plate appearances, having qualified for the batting title all three years.  Santander is 18th, with 64 more PA than Hays.   Mullins is 13th, despite last year’s injuries.  All three have been quite durable relative to other outfielders around MLB.  And in that stretch:

Mullins 11.2 fWAR, 12.7 rWAR

Hays 6.2 fWAR, 8.1 rWAR

Santander 5.7 fWAR, 5.6 rWAR

So, I don’t buy the narrative that Santander is more available and productive than the other two, or that he’s the only one who’s reliable.   Your statement only rings true if you pay attention solely to 2023, and even then, it’s an overstatement IMO.

As to our younger guys, I’m rooting for them to turn out to be better than the guys they’ll ultimately be replacing, but the current group is good IMO and I’m not counting on the younger guys to turn out better, though I hope they do.

 

Great post.

[ThisIsBirdland]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One of my jobs on OH is to counter the annoying narrative that Hays “struggles to stay on the field.”   I feel there’s a large group of posters who remember the difficulties Hays had earlier in his career but ignore three years of durability.  Over those three years, he’s 20th among all major league outfielders in plate appearances, having qualified for the batting title all three years.  Santander is 18th, with 64 more PA than Hays.   Mullins is 13th, despite last year’s injuries.  All three have been quite durable relative to other outfielders around MLB.  And in that stretch:

Mullins 11.2 fWAR, 12.7 rWAR

Hays 6.2 fWAR, 8.1 rWAR

Santander 5.7 fWAR, 5.6 rWAR

So, I don’t buy the narrative that Santander is more available and productive than the other two, or that he’s the only one who’s reliable.   Your statement only rings true if you pay attention solely to 2023, and even then, it’s an overstatement IMO.

As to our younger guys, I’m rooting for them to turn out to be better than the guys they’ll ultimately be replacing, but the current group is good IMO and I’m not counting on the younger guys to turn out better, though I hope they do.

 

I guess with Hays it comes from him appearing to wear down during the season due to the nagging injuries, despite the fact that he continues to play through them. In 2023, he had a first half OPS of .853, and a second half OPS of .667. In 2022, it was .779 in the first half and .626 in the second half. To his credit, his first half in both seasons has been enough to propel him to a combined 4.9 rWAR over those two seasons.

[forphase1]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One of my jobs on OH is to counter the annoying narrative that Hays “struggles to stay on the field.”   I feel there’s a large group of posters who remember the difficulties Hays had earlier in his career but ignore three years of durability.  Over those three years, he’s 20th among all major league outfielders in plate appearances, having qualified for the batting title all three years.  Santander is 18th, with 64 more PA than Hays.   Mullins is 13th, despite last year’s injuries.  All three have been quite durable relative to other outfielders around MLB.  And in that stretch:

Mullins 11.2 fWAR, 12.7 rWAR

Hays 6.2 fWAR, 8.1 rWAR

Santander 5.7 fWAR, 5.6 rWAR

So, I don’t buy the narrative that Santander is more available and productive than the other two, or that he’s the only one who’s reliable.   Your statement only rings true if you pay attention solely to 2023, and even then, it’s an overstatement IMO.

As to our younger guys, I’m rooting for them to turn out to be better than the guys they’ll ultimately be replacing, but the current group is good IMO and I’m not counting on the younger guys to turn out better, though I hope they do.

 

While you certainly aren't wrong, I have the impression (which of course could be VERY wrong) that Hays plays hurt a lot, and that seems to really impact his production.  There have been quite a few times over the past few years when I've felt Hays would have been better served to have went on the injured list for a couple of weeks and could come back much stronger, but instead they keep throwing him out there and just deal with the poor results.  I get that maybe in the past a 70% healthy Hays is better than whoever could take his place, but I'm not sure that's still the case today.  

Overall your point is right, our outfield has done a great job of avoiding injuries that really keeps them out of the lineup for an extended period of time.  And of course over 160+ games guys are going to get dinged up and have minor health issues that are more annoying, perhaps, then requiring time off.  But for Hays at least those lingering little dings seem to greatly impact his performance.  Or I could just be completely wrong.    But it's something to consider.  

[Say O!]

4 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

I guess with Hays it comes from him appearing to wear down during the season due to the nagging injuries, despite the fact that he continues to play through them. In 2023, he had a first half OPS of .853, and a second half OPS of .667. In 2022, it was .779 in the first half and .626 in the second half. To his credit, his first half in both seasons has been enough to propel him to a combined 4.9 rWAR over those two seasons.

This. 
 

it does seem that finally there is enough quality depth such that Hays does not need to “tough it out” when he’s banged up and can go on IL stint without too much falloff to Cowser/Stowers/Kjerstad. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think people lump Hays in with Reimold.  RH OF, toolsy, white dudes.  

There was a time in Hays’ career where there was a reasonable concern that Hays would be as injury prone as Reimold, but we’re way past that now.  At age 27, Hays has more games and PA and significantly more WAR than Reimold  had in his entire career, which ended at age 32.  I’d also say Hays is a much better defender than Reimold ever was.  I think Reimold possibly could have been the better hitter if he’d been able to stay healthy, but he didn’t.  

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Say O! said:

This. 
 

it does seem that finally there is enough quality depth such that Hays does not need to “tough it out” when he’s banged up and can go on IL stint without too much falloff to Cowser/Stowers/Kjerstad. 

That's the big value of Cowser this year. He can start to sub in more and more for Hays vs. RHP and hopefully stave off the 2nd half lull that Hays sometimes experiences. 

[Sanfran327]

31 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

I guess with Hays it comes from him appearing to wear down during the season due to the nagging injuries, despite the fact that he continues to play through them. In 2023, he had a first half OPS of .853, and a second half OPS of .667. In 2022, it was .779 in the first half and .626 in the second half. To his credit, his first half in both seasons has been enough to propel him to a combined 4.9 rWAR over those two seasons.

This better articulates my opinion of Hays. Good post. And good point made by Frobby as well, I guess Hays has been on the field more than I gave him credit for, but I still think that Santander has been our most consistent OFer over the last 3-4 years than anyone else. Not even really sure how that's debatable, but I'm sure someone will show me. Count me as one of the guys that would like to keep Santander around at the right price as a RF contingency and DH option. 

No doubt that Hays and Mullins have shown us how good they can be, I just wish it could be for longer stretches. 

[FlaO'sFan]

I'm not sold on Cowser in CF. 

[now]

41 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think people lump Hays in with Reimold.  RH OF, toolsy, white dudes.  

I was going to dispute this, thinking Reimold was a very different kind of hitter, more of an OBP guy. While that's true, actually their stat lines are pretty close:

Reimold: 323/422/745/99

Hays: 314/437/751/107

[owknows]

3 minutes ago, FlaO'sFan said:

I'm not sold on Cowser in CF. 

I don't think anyone is suggesting that