Jackson Holliday 2024

[Sports Guy]

Now we are talking about Andrew Vaughn and throwing that out there?

It’s like LaCanfora has several screen names on here now.

[baltfan]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Now we are talking about Andrew Vaughn and throwing that out there?

It’s like LaCanfora has several screen names on here now.

He was brought up because he was a highly rated prospect that seemed to have great plate discipline.  He now doesn't walk as much as has 7 homers.  The point was that OBP in the minors doesn't necessarily translate.  Do you have Holliday over Basallo and Mayo?   Are you as high on him as you were prior to this season?  

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, baltfan said:

He was brought up because he was a highly rated prospect that seemed to have great plate discipline.  He now doesn't walk as much as has 7 homers.  The point was that OBP in the minors doesn't necessarily translate.  Do you have Holliday over Basallo and Mayo?   Are you as high on him as you were prior to this season?  

Yea of course.  It would be foolish to think otherwise.

 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Andrew Vaughn had a good OBP in the minors with better power.  His OBP in the majors is .283 this year.  Yes, he we older, but OBP in the minors doesn't necessarily translate.  

Andrew Vaughn Amateur, College & Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

You said Holliday’s “inability to do damage”.   It’s not correct.   He’s got to make adjustments to be able to cover the plate better.   He certainly has enough pop to keep pitchers honest.   He simply needs to become a tougher out when he comes back up.

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 hours ago, baltfan said:

This is not a sky is falling post but more of a resetting of expectations one.  Holliday has hit .087 the last 7 games.  His OPS is now .898.  A lot of that OPS is driven by OBP.  Normally that is a good thing, but with Holliday he showed little ability to walk at the big league level.  I think last year was a bit of a mirage reminiscent of the amazing year Wieters had in the minors when he was touted as Mauer with power.

In short, Holliday's inability to do damage is going to allow pitchers in the MLB to challenge him.  He won't be walking, like he is in the minors.  It's also troubling that in the majors he seemed to have trouble with every type of pitch, not just velocity.   I still think he is a very good prospect, but I would take Mayo or Basallo over him and would trade him for the right young starter.  I just don't think the upside is there and am worried about the floor more and more.  

Hate to say it but that is how I have felt for a while now.  I just don't see the athleticism or the special qualities in him that you do with a Gunnar or a Judge.  Things that make them standout from the rest.   He looks just like a regular player.  I see a young looking, not very athletic, good baseball player for his age.

The best prospect in baseball?   I have doubts on that.    And that is not to say he won't be a really good player in the future.  I just don't see superstar.

[Flash- bd]

40 minutes ago, baltfan said:

He was brought up because he was a highly rated prospect that seemed to have great plate discipline.  He now doesn't walk as much as has 7 homers.  The point was that OBP in the minors doesn't necessarily translate.  Do you have Holliday over Basallo and Mayo?   Are you as high on him as you were prior to this season?  

To put things into context, Jackson has so far an .898 OPS at AAA in his age 20 season (he started the season at over 1.000 before his call-up, I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that going up and struggling might've had some effect on his numbers afterwards). 

Mayo at age 20 had a .782 OPS between A+ and AA.

Basallo will turn 20 in 60 days. He's about 2/3 of a year younger than Holliday. In his age 19 season he currently has an .810 OPS in AA. In Jackson's age 19 season he had a .928 OPS at Bowie before moving on to AAA where he OPS'd .796 in 91 PA. 

Unless there is important statistic evidence suggesting that ISO at the minor league level is a more important indicator of future success than say wRC+ or OPS (and if this were true, we should be encouraged by the fact that Jackson has gone from a .176 ISO--.133 at the same level--to .196 ISO from age 19 to 20) I don't really see any argument for putting Basallo or Mayo above them.

With all due respect--because I think you are putting forth some interesting points and almost convinced me before I did this little exercise--I think you are likely subconsciously being affected too strongly by Jackson's 36 PA at the ML level. 

Edited June 13 by Flash- bd

[DirtyBird]

What can we get for him in a trade?

Does he even have any trade value remaining?

[OnlyOneOriole]

3 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

 

With all due respect--because I think you are putting forth some interesting points and almost convinced me before I did this little exercise--I think you are likely subconsciously being affected too strongly by Jackson's 36 PA at the ML level. 

Well being honest....it is hard not to.  They were that bad.   Although for me I thought he looked just as bad in the field.   It was almost as if he had never played baseball before.  At times he could barely throw to first base. 

[Flash- bd]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What can we get for him in a trade?

Does he even have any trade value remaining?

I declare myself a fan of your trolling 

[RZNJ]

FWIW, his stats so far at Norfolk are, in most categories, nearly identical to what he was putting up at Aberdeen around the same time last year.

[interloper]

Honestly, the walks almost just bum me out at this point. It's nice and all, but it's just not going to translate up here with the umps and catchers who can steal strikes. He needs to show power, or those walks are kind of whatever for me. I don't know that they're really showing anything other than that he can work an AB against mediocre AAA pitching with the benefit of ball/strike challenges. I need to see that he can mash that mediocre AAA pitching. 

It's consistent power PLUS walks that really shows you something. Walks alone is not doing much for me and I suspect it's not for the Orioles FO either. 

Edited June 13 by interloper

[baltfan]

25 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

To put things into context, Jackson has so far an .898 OPS at AAA in his age 20 season (he started the season at over 1.000 before his call-up, I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that going up and struggling might've had some effect on his numbers afterwards). 

Mayo at age 20 had a .782 OPS between A+ and AA.

Basallo will turn 20 in 60 days. He's about 2/3 of a year younger than Holliday. In his age 19 season he currently has an .810 OPS in AA. In Jackson's age 19 season he had a .928 OPS at Bowie before moving on to AAA where he OPS'd .796 in 91 PA. 

Unless there is important statistic evidence suggesting that ISO at the minor league level is a more important indicator of future success than say wRC+ or OPS (and if this were true, we should be encouraged by the fact that Jackson has gone from a .176 ISO--.133 at the same level--to .196 ISO from age 19 to 20) I don't really see any argument for putting Basallo or Mayo above them.

With all due respect--because I think you are putting forth some interesting points and almost convinced me before I did this little exercise--I think you are likely subconsciously being affected too strongly by Jackson's 36 PA at the ML level. 

I acknowledge the possibility that his MLB performance is affecting my evaluation of him.  But his performance was really bad.  He showed lots of holes.  I do think he is a bit of a tweener with regard to his power and that is a concern for me.  I am more partial to the power bats being able to punish mistakes in the zone and encourage people to pitch around him.  Basallo plays a more premium position.  With Mayo, I can see the arguments against, but he also is probably not as advanced because he didn't have a major league dad.  Perhaps Holliday is closer to his ceiling since he has had such professional instruction for so long compared to other 20 year olds other than Vlad.

[baltfan]

26 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Well being honest....it is hard not to.  They were that bad.   Although for me I thought he looked just as bad in the field.   It was almost as if he had never played baseball before.  At times he could barely throw to first base. 

His defensive metrics were excellent in the MLB.

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea of course.  It would be foolish to think otherwise.

 

Really, foolish.? Foolish to think that two guys both routinely ranked among the top 10 overall prospects might be better than the guy that is #1 or #2? It's not like I was putting him behind Kjerstad.

Edited June 13 by baltfan

[Sports Guy]

Just now, baltfan said:

Really, foolish.  Foolish to think that two guys both routinely ranked among the top 10 overall prospects might be better than the guy that is #1 or #2? It's not like I was putting him behind Kjerstad.

Yea it’s foolish.

It’s foolish to draw major conclusions and greatly change your thoughts because of 34 at bats.

This entire exchange is foolish. Bringing up bad players as a comp is foolish. Acting as if he’s still not performing is foolish. Acting like we should ignore all of his accomplishments and his age because he’s in the midst of tweaking some things and learning is foolish.

The only prospect who may be better is Skenes and he won’t even be a prospect for too much longer.