Official 2024 Orioles Wins Poll

[Otter]

90-93.  I see a regression from last year due to the question marks in pitching staff and regression to the mean from the runners in scoring position numbers from last year.

[oriolediehard]

I predict our wins will pile on when we bring up Holiday, the same way it did when we brought up Adley.

[Orioles West]

Interestingly enough, I was asked my prediction purchasing some unhealthy, overpriced food at Ed Smith Stadium versus the BoSox last week. The gentlemen behind the counter overheard me talking about the Bradish injury with another fan in line and asked me as soon as I got to the register, “So, are we gonna win 100+ again?”

”No, but we’ll be fun to watch again this year — I’m going 90 wins and a Wild Card.”

I should probably stick to this, because there are witnesses to my fairly safe prognostication.

Biggest factor to me on the slight backslide is Bautista’s injury. So many clutch moments, I think he will be missed a bunch.

[webbrick2010]

11 minutes ago, Philip said:

According to BBR, in 2023 the Os Pythagorean record was 94-68.

All our stalwarts are older and a wee bit more fragile.

We subtracted Frazier and added Nevin(Let Joy be unconfined!)

We added Burnes and subtracted Bradish/Means.

We added Kimbrel(a wee bit older) and several possible guys in the pen but none made the team, and subtracted The Mountain.

And ME apparently doesn’t want our rookies to win ROY.

So are we better? Meh. This is a new year, a new incarnation. Let’s roll.

Ill be happy if we win the Division, and I expect 91-95 wins, because the other teams in the div have as many troubles and less depth.

So we win!

We subtracted our innings pitched and wins leader (Gibson) and added nothing

Can't believe we didn't get another starting pitcher, this could blow up

[Philip]

As an aside, the East is weak enough and the West strong enough that two wild cards come from the west, and MAYBE the Tigers are improved enough to beat out the Rays, who are my pick for second in the East.

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

We subtracted our innings pitched and wins leader (Gibson) and added nothing

Can't believe we didn't get another starting pitcher, this could blow up

I can only imagine your confidence with the ‘27 Yankees. I gonna go out on a limb and say it would have been something like this:

 

We could have been pretty good but…

[Spy Fox]

7 minutes ago, Philip said:

With respect, I feel pretty sure we won’t win narrowly over anyone. We have way too much depth.

Thats one of the advantages of having an entire MLB-ready team at AAA.

That could happen, and I think the O's depth gives them the safest 85+ win floor of any team in the division. But I think at least one of our opponents-- Jays/Yankees the two most likely IMO-- will make a serious run for the division, even if some stuff goes sideways for them. Last year we only finished 2 games ahead of the Rays even after they lost 3/5 of their rotation to elbow surgery. 

[ChosenOne21]

10 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

We subtracted our innings pitched and wins leader (Gibson) and added nothing

Can't believe we didn't get another starting pitcher, this could blow up

Tell me you're not concerned because we lost Gibson...

EDIT: Also, how is Burnes "adding nothing?"

Edited March 25 by ChosenOne21

[maybenxtyr]

90-93 with a chance to be better than that. My biggest concern is the pitching. Getting healthy could definitely get them in the high 90's.

[eddie83]

Win division. 96-98 wins. 

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, Orioles West said:

Interestingly enough, I was asked my prediction purchasing some unhealthy, overpriced food at Ed Smith Stadium versus the BoSox last week. The gentlemen behind the counter overheard me talking about the Bradish injury with another fan in line and asked me as soon as I got to the register, “So, are we gonna win 100+ again?”

”No, but we’ll be fun to watch again this year — I’m going 90 wins and a Wild Card.”

I should probably stick to this, because there are witnesses to my fairly safe prognostication.

Biggest factor to me on the slight backslide is Bautista’s injury. So many clutch moments, I think he will be missed a bunch.

I just can’t see any other team outpacing us in the East this year. Were the best team on paper, and we have less question marks in the rotation than the beginning of last year. 
 

Unless we have an unlucky year like the Padres or another team has a really lucky year we should win the division. I’m going with 96-98 wins. 

[justD]

54 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Tell me you're not concerned because we lost Gibson...

EDIT: Also, how is Burnes "adding nothing?"

Pretty sure his post was /s (sarcasm), as a paraphrase of the quoted post?

[Malike]

90-96 wins, possible division winner and at least secure a WC. I think the Rays are still the top competition. The Yankees are a factor if they get Monty back, and they will score a lot of runs but their pitching has some issues. Toronto has great pitching and they are going to have trouble scoring runs.

[Orioles West]

40 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I just can’t see any other team outpacing us in the East this year. Were the best team on paper, and we have less question marks in the rotation than the beginning of last year. 
 

Unless we have an unlucky year like the Padres or another team has a really lucky year we should win the division. I’m going with 96-98 wins. 

I can’t argue with optimism, and I would love back-to-back division championships. I also prefer your prediction to mine. But it’s baseball, stuff goes sideways sometimes.

Even if it does, we’ll be competitive every time we take the field, and that’s my favorite part.

Edited March 25 by Orioles West

[O's84]

I'm not worried about the offense or defense but my concern about the starters and pen is what pegged me down for the 86-89 option.  I'd lean on the high side of that, so I'll predict an 89-73 record.

Edited March 25 by O's84