Gunnar Henderson 2024

[ChosenOne21]

19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

How the hell isn't Soto a top-5 player? He's had about half of a sure-fire HoF career, and he doesn't even turn 30 for four years.

[Bemorewins]

I just felt like bumping this thread because the guy has turned into a superstar player at age 22, is one of the best ballplayers in the game and having an MVP caliber season while he leads the bigs on homers. Even though there we big expectations for him, he is living up to all of them and then some!

And yet a thread discussing/overanalyzing the struggles of a 20 year old Jackson Holliday has close to 4 times as many pages.

It's almost if (we) Orioles fans are so conditioned to suffering that many would rather focus on the negative more than appreciate such an apparent positive.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 5/21/2024 at 9:04 AM, Bemorewins said:

Now back to Gunnar, Gunnar is in the midst of most likely the greatest individual season in Orioles history. And we have 21/22 pages on him and what 80 on Holliday? 

To be fair, most of the posts about Holliday are negative,  attacking his batting stance, but also his workout methods, weightlifting, family and marriage.  So there's probably more positive posts about Gunnar.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 5/24/2024 at 6:57 PM, ChosenOne21 said:

How the hell isn't Soto a top-5 player? He's had about half of a sure-fire HoF career, and he doesn't even turn 30 for four years.

Offense is only half the game.  I think Gunnar is a better all around player than Soto.  I think it's by a decent margin.  I think it's close with Judge.  Because defense matters.

[Say O!]

Great writeup today on Gunnar’s combination of fast bat speed and short swing leading to his HR power — link to article.  Lots of statcast data and comparisons included.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Great writeup today on Gunnar’s combination of fast bat speed and short swing leading to his HR power — link to article.  Lots of statcast data and comparisons included.

Thanks for posting this, it was very interesting.  I do find it kind of funny how Statcast is always coming up with new combo stats like “blasts” and “barrels.”   I guess not all blasts are barrels, or vice versa.  Maybe we need to have “barrel blasts” — or perhaps we can just call them homers.  

[Malike]

On 5/24/2024 at 6:57 PM, ChosenOne21 said:

How the hell isn't Soto a top-5 player? He's had about half of a sure-fire HoF career, and he doesn't even turn 30 for four years.

Soto is a generational bat who is going to lose a ton of WAR because he is a bad defender and baserunner. At some point he'll be a 50M a year DH, he runs like an old man at 25 years old.

[ChuckS]

45 minutes ago, Malike said:

Soto is a generational bat who is going to lose a ton of WAR because he is a bad defender and baserunner. At some point he'll be a 50M a year DH, he runs like an old man at 25 years old.

A bit hyperbolic. He has 43rd percentile sprint speed, an above average arm, and his defensive metrics are pretty decent this year.  

He's not Mike Trout out there, but I think he's a long way from being a DH.  He will be able to play RF at Yankee Stadium for a long time. 

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

A bit hyperbolic. He has 43rd percentile sprint speed, an above average arm, and his defensive metrics are pretty decent this year.  

He's not Mike Trout out there, but I think he's a long way from being a DH.  He will be able to play RF at Yankee Stadium for a long time. 

32nd percentile in sprint speed in 2022, in 2023 and '24 he's been in the 37th percentile. He's in the 52nd percentile in arm strength and was -16 OAA in 2022, -9 in 2023, and 2019, 2021, and 2024 are the only years he's posted a positive OAA he's at +1 this year. His throws are accurate but he does not have a good arm and his sprint speed of 26.8 ranks him as the 279th fastest guy in MLB. If you think the defense and speed are going to improve as he gets older, then sure, I'm being hyperbolic.

[Oriole1940]

Gunnar is a H o F possibility some years down the road if he stays healthy for 15-20 more years.  I posted this some time ago and no reason to change my opinion.  For people who are baseball fans rather than just Orioles fans that is so apparent there is no reason to keep saying it. In addition, he has a raw boned body  make up that suggests durability.   Very enjoyable to watch him demonstrate his many skills.

[G54377]

Even if Soto has to DH he could easily have a back end of his career like David Ortiz or Miggy. 

[ChuckS]

24 minutes ago, Malike said:

32nd percentile in sprint speed in 2022, in 2023 and '24 he's been in the 37th percentile. He's in the 52nd percentile in arm strength and was -16 OAA in 2022, -9 in 2023, and 2019, 2021, and 2024 are the only years he's posted a positive OAA he's at +1 this year. His throws are accurate but he does not have a good arm and his sprint speed of 26.8 ranks him as the 279th fastest guy in MLB. If you think the defense and speed are going to improve as he gets older, then sure, I'm being hyperbolic.

You are stating that he has a 52nd percentile throwing arm and that his throws are accurate.  Then stating he does not have a good arm?  Those are conflicting statements.  I'm seeing a 91 percentile for arm value, per Baseball Savant. 

Moreover, he does not run like an old man.  A statement like that should be reserved for bottom tier percentile runners, not average or slightly below average ones.   

I think his defense could continue to improve, yes.  He's only 25.  You are talking as if he's a guy in his early 30s, who is about to hit a cliff.  In Yankee stadium, he should be able to play adequate defense in RF for quite some time. 

Edited May 28 by ChuckS

[Hallas]

24 minutes ago, Malike said:

32nd percentile in sprint speed in 2022, in 2023 and '24 he's been in the 37th percentile. He's in the 52nd percentile in arm strength and was -16 OAA in 2022, -9 in 2023, and 2019, 2021, and 2024 are the only years he's posted a positive OAA he's at +1 this year. His throws are accurate but he does not have a good arm and his sprint speed of 26.8 ranks him as the 279th fastest guy in MLB. If you think the defense and speed are going to improve as he gets older, then sure, I'm being hyperbolic.

He's so young and such a good hitter that even if he's an old man running right now he's probably going to sit at around this level as a runner/defender for another 3-4 years.  That's a lot longer than most people who sign big FA contracts.  If he signs a 10 year deal he'll be 35 in the last year of the deal, and he's got a good chance of still being a productive player at that time, which isn't really something you can say about most players.  If he follows a typical aging curve, he'll still be worth around 20-25 batting runs over average at age 35, which is enough for him to be a 3-4 win player even as a DH.

[Malike]

6 minutes ago, Hallas said:

He's so young and such a good hitter that even if he's an old man running right now he's probably going to sit at around this level as a runner/defender for another 3-4 years.  That's a lot longer than most people who sign big FA contracts.  If he signs a 10 year deal he'll be 35 in the last year of the deal, and he's got a good chance of still being a productive player at that time, which isn't really something you can say about most players.  If he follows a typical aging curve, he'll still be worth around 20-25 batting runs over average at age 35, which is enough for him to be a 3-4 win player even as a DH.

I'm not disputing his value as a hitter. I'm disputing his all-around game and how it will affect his standings in WAR at the end of his career. His baserunning and defense will probably keep him from the conversation as one of the greatest players of all time. Imagine where Jeter would fall if he could play defense.

Edited May 28 by Malike

[Malike]

32 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

You are stating that he has a 52nd percentile throwing arm and that his throws are accurate.  Then stating he does not have a good arm?  Those are conflicting statements.  I'm seeing a 91 percentile for arm value, per Baseball Savant. 

Moreover, he does not run like an old man.  A statement like that should be reserved for bottom tier percentile runners, not average or slightly below average ones.   

I think his defense could continue to improve, yes.  He's only 25.  You are talking as if he's a guy in his early 30s, who is about to hit a cliff.  In Yankee stadium, he should be able to play adequate defense in RF for quite some time. 

His arm value over 7 years is -12. It's +1 this year and was +2 last year. I was going off of the last two years. If you think an arm value for a career that is -12 is a good arm, then we probably don't have much to discuss. His fielding run value for his career is -27, his baserunning run value over 7 years is -6, the only positive year being his call up in 2018 at +1. If you think those numbers are average, that's fine, I don't.

I wouldn't assume he's going to end up in Yankee stadium for his career, there are other teams with lots of money and interest.

Edit: Colton Cowser is in the 99th percentile in arm strength, do you consider him to have a good arm or a strong arm? They are not equal things.

Edited May 28 by Malike