Colton Cowser 2024

[DirtyBird]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m told by someone with very good scouting chops that Bradfield has more range than either Mullins or Jones in their primes.   
 

But what else can he do on the field at the major league level?

[G54377]

Even if Bradfield only reaches his "floor" that may be a 3 WAR player on defense and base stealing alone. He needs to float a OBP of like 320 at least.

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, G54377 said:

Even if Bradfield only reaches his "floor" that may be a 3 WAR player on defense and base stealing alone. He needs to float a OBP of like 320 at least.

Haha. Ok.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, G54377 said:

Even if Bradfield only reaches his "floor" that may be a 3 WAR player on defense and base stealing alone. He needs to float a OBP of like 320 at least.

I don't think you can describe anyone who's still in A ball with 133 career pro PAs at age 22 as having a floor of three wins a season. At this point it's an open question as to whether he tops three wins in any MLB season.

If you look for comparable players, say .310-.330 OBP, little power, plus-plus basestealing and CF defense, I think the archetype in recent baseball is Michael Bourn. Who did top out with some really good 5-6 win seasons, but tailed off quickly and only had 5-6 seasons as an above-average regular.

Beyond him you're looking at guys like Jarrod Dyson, Dee Strange-Gordon, Ben Revere. But only a handful of years each as average to average-plus MLB regulars. And then lots and lots of players who didn't even reach that kind of level.

I think we have a few years before we figure out where on that spectrum Bradfield falls.

[Sydnor]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Ok, for your first part about a Santander extension, it would absolutely impact our ability to extend our young stars. Since the time to extend them is now.

There is NO WAY we okay the arb game with them year after and then the turn around and sign with us in FA. Rarely, and I mean super rarely is that how this game is played. If they get within 3 years of FA (maybe not Adley but definitely the others) they are as good as gone when the time comes.

As far as Burnes goes, I would give him a market deal up to 7 years. Nothing beyond that. He is a rare and precious commodity. One of the best SPs in the game. There is no matchup/team where he is on the bump where we are at a competitive disadvantage. He’s that good! And IMO those guys are extremely VALUABLE in October.

In addition, while we have Grayson, we don’t know what Bradish will know be beyond the injury. And after that we have no top level SP talent through the entire org. If we don’t sign Burnes, we will need to sign or trade for a top notch starter to replace him.

The point is, that if we extend Gunnar for 12 years and $300 million (I just made up a contract with easy math), he isn’t going to make $25 million next season. He’s going to make something like $2 million because it’s a pre-arbitration year. Then he’ll makes something like $7 million in 2026 $12 million in 2027, and $18 million in 2028.

A mid market deal for a player (like 3 years for $45 million or 4 years for $56 million) should not impact the team’s ability to pay those salaries in those years. Extensions are about security. Teams don’t just hand exponentially more to players than they would make in those years when they structure the extension. “The Arb game” has nothing to do with this. It is about how extensions are structured and how a shorter term mid-market deal shouldn’t prevent them from paying those types of salaries in the early years of an extension (i.e., the first 3-4 years of an extension). If you don’t believe me, use the Internet and look up what Fernando Tatis Jr. has been paid in the early years of his extension or what Witt Jr. will make. 

Burnes is a completely different discussion, but again I don’t believe the team has any interest in extending him. The Lunhow/Elias/Mejdal Astros provide a decent blueprint to what I think they’ll do with respect to pitching.

[G54377]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't think you can describe anyone who's still in A ball with 133 career pro PAs at age 22 as having a floor of three wins a season. At this point it's an open question as to whether he tops three wins in any MLB season.

If you look for comparable players, say .310-.330 OBP, little power, plus-plus basestealing and CF defense, I think the archetype in recent baseball is Michael Bourn. Who did top out with some really good 5-6 win seasons, but tailed off quickly and only had 5-6 seasons as an above-average regular.

Beyond him you're looking at guys like Jarrod Dyson, Dee Strange-Gordon, Ben Revere. But only a handful of years each as average to average-plus MLB regulars. And then lots and lots of players who didn't even reach that kind of level.

I think we have a few years before we figure out where on that spectrum Bradfield falls.

I may be overly bullish with what I said, but what I meant was I think our lineup will be elite to the point a "defense/speed only" CF is probably OK if it came to it.

[emmett16]

 

Name	Year	0ft	5ft	10ft	15ft	20ft	25ft	30ft	35ft	40ft	45ft	50ft	55ft	60ft	65ft	70ft	75ft	80ft	85ft	90ft
Cowser, Colton - LHB	2023	0.00	0.53	0.82	1.08	1.31	1.52	1.72	1.92	2.11	2.30	2.48	2.66	2.83	3.01	3.18	3.36	3.53	3.72	3.91
Mullins, Cedric - LHB	2023	0.00	0.54	0.84	1.09	1.32	1.53	1.73	1.93	2.12	2.30	2.48	2.66	2.83	3.00	3.18	3.35	3.52	3.71	3.90

Colton Cowser Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

[emmett16]

So far in 2024 they are both 27.6 ft/sec sprint speed

Colton Cowser Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Cedric Mullins Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Cowser has a very strong arm.  With reps and experience he should be able to defend similarly to Mullins this year.  

Edited April 12 by emmett16

[DenPA2002]

I hope everyone gives him a standing O tonight!

[Malike]

49 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

But what else can he do on the field at the major league level?

It's a bit early to ask that, right? What we don't have to worry about is his defense, so that's half the battle.

[interloper]

22 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

 

Name	Year	0ft	5ft	10ft	15ft	20ft	25ft	30ft	35ft	40ft	45ft	50ft	55ft	60ft	65ft	70ft	75ft	80ft	85ft	90ft
Cowser, Colton - LHB	2023	0.00	0.53	0.82	1.08	1.31	1.52	1.72	1.92	2.11	2.30	2.48	2.66	2.83	3.01	3.18	3.36	3.53	3.72	3.91
Mullins, Cedric - LHB	2023	0.00	0.54	0.84	1.09	1.32	1.53	1.73	1.93	2.12	2.30	2.48	2.66	2.83	3.00	3.18	3.35	3.52	3.71	3.90

Colton Cowser Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Wow, that is pretty surprising. 

[Bemorewins]

26 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

The point is, that if we extend Gunnar for 12 years and $300 million (I just made up a contract with easy math), he isn’t going to make $25 million next season. He’s going to make something like $2 million because it’s a pre-arbitration year. Then he’ll makes something like $7 million in 2026 $12 million in 2027, and $18 million in 2028.

A mid market deal for a player (like 3 years for $45 million or 4 years for $56 million) should not impact the team’s ability to pay those salaries in those years. Extensions are about security. Teams don’t just hand exponentially more to players than they would make in those years when they structure the extension. “The Arb game” has nothing to do with this. It is about how extensions are structured and how a shorter term mid-market deal shouldn’t prevent them from paying those types of salaries in the early years of an extension (i.e., the first 3-4 years of an extension). If you don’t believe me, use the Internet and look up what Fernando Tatis Jr. has been paid in the early years of his extension or what Witt Jr. will make. 

Burnes is a completely different discussion, but again I don’t believe the team has any interest in extending him. The Lunhow/Elias/Mejdal Astros provide a decent blueprint to what I think they’ll do with respect to pitching.

No, I get what you are saying. And you are right that the contract structure shouldn't prevent an extension for a player like Santander. 

As far as the pitching goes and the Astros model, as long as their is a present day Verlander and Cole out there to be had, via trade, that works.

[Malike]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

Wow, that is pretty surprising. 

Sprint speed doesn't equal being good in CF. Mullins has great instincts and gets really good jumps on balls. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

Sprint speed doesn't equal being good in CF. Mullins has great instincts and gets really good jumps on balls. 

For sure. I just didn't think he even would come close to matching Mullins in sprint speed. But yeah, I don't think he has the instincts or reaction speed that Mullins has. 

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

For sure. I just didn't think he even would come close to matching Mullins in sprint speed. But yeah, I don't think he has the instincts or reaction speed that Mullins has. 

Mullins has definitely lost a step and I'm not sure if he's just being cautious so he doesn't hurt his groin again or what, but he's special out there in CF on defense.