Colton Cowser 2024

[86this]

Maybe there will be a MILK promotion at the Yard one day for Cowser.  Then down the road something for Coby and then there will be a MILK and MAYO promo.  Can you taste it now? Mmm...mmm...good.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I forgot that this was the Cowser thread.  Let's get this back on topic.

Predict his final slash line and stats if he gets 550 at bats.

I'm gonna go with .285/.350/.490 for 23 homers, 90 driven in and top 2 in ROY.

I think his K rate is going to keep his average closer to 250.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think his K rate is going to keep his average closer to 250.

Fair.

[emmett16]

11 minutes ago, 86this said:

Maybe there will be a MILK promotion at the Yard one day for Cowser.  Then down the road something for Coby and then there will be a MILK and MAYO promo.  Can you taste it now? Mmm...mmm...good.

Hopefully early in the season and not the middle of summer.  That could be bad. 

[interloper]

53 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Hopefully early in the season and not the middle of summer.  That could be bad. 

"Milk was a bad choice"

[Explosivo]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Hays is now the new McKenna. He's the 4th outfielder who will fill in for each guy against lefties and late in games against lefties. 

If he can get his bat going, he'll be really good in that role. He's a much better bat sitting on the bench than McKenna IF, and this is a big IF because we don't know this yet. If he's  able to hit when only starting 1-2 a week? Not every player is able to be effective in that role.

I agree and as we know from Hays he is a Jekyll and Hyde player. He will have a great first half but a terrible second half and vice versa. Let’s hope that plays into a killer second half. That being said, he has an option and he has also earned some leeway to figure it out, but if I’m Hyde, I’ve got a mental timer on him figuring it out by May. If that doesn’t happen, it’s an easy sell to him to send him down to AAA so he can get his mind right.
 

When he does, he can come back and mash and all will be well. In the long run, it’ll be good for him, truly.

[Explosivo]

Here’s the promo tag line:

”The Milkman Cometh”

(which coincidentally could be a 70s porno title)

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

All those guys played during "the shift" era. In a post shift era where speed, athleticism, and base stealing are more valued, a skill set like Bradfield's can be very valuable.

Are they? 2023 saw the 5th-most home runs per game in history. While steals were up from recent seasons, they're only about as frequent as they were in the 1990s.

I guess we'll see, but I didn't notice a spike in Juan Pierre and Willie McGee types in the last year+.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

It's funny how some of you trust Elias completely and have what amounts to total faith in him. But when it comes to Bradfield, you don't trust his evaluation and the org's development prowess for position players.

I don't see why being skeptical about the future value of Bradfield has anything to do with my evaluation of or trust in Elias. He took the player he thought was most valuable when the O's pick came up. That doesn't mean that the guy is automatically going to have a 30-win career.

Bradfield was a #17 overall pick. If you look at all #17 picks the median value for their entire career is something like 2 rWAR. The draft has been going on since 1964 and just 10 #17 picks have had a 10-WAR career. While 17 of them who were drafted in 2016 or earlier never played in the majors. Jerry Don Gleaton and Eduardo Perez are typical #17s. Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels were drafted #17, but so were Josh Sale, Rick Asadoorian, Ricky Barlow, and Ken Plesha. The Orioles' only #17 pick prior to Bradfield was the immortal Don Hood.

If Bradfield has a 5 or 10-win career Elias and his development team have done better than expected.

[Filmstudy]

8 hours ago, Explosivo said:

I agree and as we know from Hays he is a Jekyll and Hyde player. He will have a great first half but a terrible second half and vice versa. Let’s hope that plays into a killer second half. That being said, he has an option and he has also earned some leeway to figure it out, but if I’m Hyde, I’ve got a mental timer on him figuring it out by May. If that doesn’t happen, it’s an easy sell to him to send him down to AAA so he can get his mind right.
 

When he does, he can come back and mash and all will be well. In the long run, it’ll be good for him, truly.

I think May 1 is a reasonable deadline for Hays to start hitting or be sent to AAA.  If he turns in an OPS of .550 or less for the rest of the month, I think it will be entirely reasonable to pull the trigger.

He hit a ball really well tonight, which is a good sign, but his relatively limited number of hard-hit balls also need to start turning into production. 

One other benefit of such a move is that it sends an encouraging message to the guys at AAA who are rotting on the vine with lots of AAA experience (Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, but not yet Mayo).  Sending Hays down and bringing Norby up as the 4th outfielder/extra infielder for 2-4 weeks could give Hays time to get back in the groove and the Orioles a chance to see Norby in a shot vs ML pitching.  It would also show the minor leaguers that they are not all in a dead-end situation and the Orioles will make timely changes in a potential championship season.

If Norby does hit at the big league level and Hays finds his way at AAA, then you can recall Hays and DFA either Urias or Mateo.

[baltfan]

8 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

I think May 1 is a reasonable deadline for Hays to start hitting or be sent to AAA.  If he turns in an OPS of .550 or less for the rest of the month, I think it will be entirely reasonable to pull the trigger.

He hit a ball really well tonight, which is a good sign, but his relatively limited number of hard-hit balls also need to start turning into production. 

One other benefit of such a move is that it sends an encouraging message to the guys at AAA who are rotting on the vine with lots of AAA experience (Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, but not yet Mayo).  Sending Hays down and bringing Norby up as the 4th outfielder/extra infielder for 2-4 weeks could give Hays time to get back in the groove and the Orioles a chance to see Norby in a shot vs ML pitching.  It would also show the minor leaguers that they are not all in a dead-end situation and the Orioles will make timely changes in a potential championship season.

If Norby does hit at the big league level and Hays finds his way at AAA, then you can recall Hays and DFA either Urias or Mateo.

He ain’t going to AAA.  The club would never do that to a veteran like Hays.  

[Filmstudy]

4 minutes ago, baltfan said:

He ain’t going to AAA.  The club would never do that to a veteran like Hays.  

There is a line that was ascribed to Gollum, but I'm not sure if it was part of the Books, Movies, or a BBC radio reenactment I've heard which is one of my favorite of his:

"Silly Hobbits don't know how long 'never' is."

I think probabilistically, so please handicap it for me from your perspective.  Does never in this case mean 0%?  Or does it mean more like I think that it's between a 5% and 15% chance to occur that requires multiple overlapping circumstances but is still a meaningful possibility?

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, baltfan said:

He ain’t going to AAA.  The club would never do that to a veteran like Hays.  

They might, but not by May 1.  

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I forgot that this was the Cowser thread.  Let's get this back on topic.

Predict his final slash line and stats if he gets 550 at bats.

I'm gonna go with .285/.350/.490 for 23 homers, 90 driven in and top 2 in ROY.

He’s on pace for .481/.500/1.037 with 37 homers and 150 RBI, so I’m going with that.   But of course, now that he’s getting regular playing time instead of coming off the bench, his numbers could go higher.   

More seriously, it’s hard to get a read when a guy is this hot.  His walk rate is incredibly low compared to his norms, and all his other numbers are unsustainably high.  As a minor leaguer he usually had about a 125 point gap between his BA and his OBP, but right now it’s under 20 points.  

I’ll go with .275/.365/.475, 25 homers 85 RBI.   Plus or minus 75 percent in every category.   

 

[baltfan]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He’s on pace for .481/.500/1.037 with 37 homers and 150 RBI, so I’m going with that.   But of course, now that he’s getting regular playing time instead of coming off the bench, his numbers could go higher.   

More seriously, it’s hard to get a read when a guy is this hot.  His walk rate is incredibly low compared to his norms, and all his other numbers are unsustainably high.  As a minor leaguer he usually had about a 125 point gap between his BA and his OBP, but right now it’s under 20 points.  

I’ll go with .275/.365/.475, 25 homers 85 RBI.   Plus or minus 75 percent in every category.   

 

Yes, people tend to forget that Austin Hays was this hot for a fair amount of the first part of last season. We also have many times seen Mountcastle or Santander it similarly hot and then get cold.

Edited April 13 by baltfan