Colton Cowser 2024

[Big Mac]

50 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Sometimes I think many of you guys never played a sport in your life and are just computer nerds on reddit looking at raw stats.

 

If you can't see that CC has talent and could be a VERY good player for years to come than keep playing your video games in your parents basement. 

Sometimes I think you haven't had many conversations with actual human beings in your life that didn't result in you getting punched while we're blindly speculating about people. 

[justD]

On 6/13/2024 at 8:09 AM, Frobby said:

SG would tell you so. I don’t think either one is perfect, but when they’re out of line I generally assume the truth is in between.  The biggest difference between them is the fielding metrics they use.  Not the only difference. 

Saw an episode of The Compound today where Ian Happ was talking about how many players will play for the stats - in particular, defensive metrics or even just the way WAR is calculated based on positioning. He said some infielders know they have better range to their glove side, for instance, so they'll shade the other way. But the metric dings them because they position themselves in the "wrong" spot. And yet, they're going to be paid based on WAR, so then they might instead choose to go into the "right" position even though they know they'd be able to do better where they're more comfortable. 

That was kinda stunning to me. 

Another thing he mentioned was how a left fielder, like he is, will let a ball drop for a single for better WAR points. I will have to go back and listen again, but I'm pretty sure he was saying that he will be rated higher if he lets it drop than if he positioned himself so he could get there sooner to catch it. 

Like, getting outs wasn't as important as getting credit for positioning in order to be paid more, since WAR is what's used to determine pay, and positioning is rated above catching the damn ball. 

It was ludicrous.  

The reason I'm adding this to this thread is talking about Cowser and how he is defensively.  I often wonder why he seems so reluctant to dive for a ball that you'd see Hays or Mullins dive for in a heartbeat.  Maybe this is part of it? 

[Explosivo]

7 hours ago, justD said:

Saw an episode of The Compound today where Ian Happ was talking about how many players will play for the stats - in particular, defensive metrics or even just the way WAR is calculated based on positioning. He said some infielders know they have better range to their glove side, for instance, so they'll shade the other way. But the metric dings them because they position themselves in the "wrong" spot. And yet, they're going to be paid based on WAR, so then they might instead choose to go into the "right" position even though they know they'd be able to do better where they're more comfortable. 

That was kinda stunning to me. 

Another thing he mentioned was how a left fielder, like he is, will let a ball drop for a single for better WAR points. I will have to go back and listen again, but I'm pretty sure he was saying that he will be rated higher if he lets it drop than if he positioned himself so he could get there sooner to catch it. 

Like, getting outs wasn't as important as getting credit for positioning in order to be paid more, since WAR is what's used to determine pay, and positioning is rated above catching the damn ball. 

It was ludicrous.  

The reason I'm adding this to this thread is talking about Cowser and how he is defensively.  I often wonder why he seems so reluctant to dive for a ball that you'd see Hays or Mullins dive for in a heartbeat.  Maybe this is part of it? 

Or maybe he just is hesitant because he knows it’s best to give up a single than letting it get by you for a triple or inside the park homerun. I highly doubt Cowser gives a crap about WAR. There is nothing in the guy’s demeanor, personality, or anything that suggests he chases stats and places himself above the team. To say otherwise is quite ridiculous at best, and malicious at worst. He is a rookie and he will get more comfortable as he plays. With that comfortability will come trusting his ability more and more. Why even suggest a thing like you are suggesting? Just pathetic quite frankly on your part.

[Say O!]

9 hours ago, justD said:

Saw an episode of The Compound today where Ian Happ was talking about how many players will play for the stats - in particular, defensive metrics or even just the way WAR is calculated based on positioning. He said some infielders know they have better range to their glove side, for instance, so they'll shade the other way. But the metric dings them because they position themselves in the "wrong" spot. And yet, they're going to be paid based on WAR, so then they might instead choose to go into the "right" position even though they know they'd be able to do better where they're more comfortable. 

That was kinda stunning to me. 

Another thing he mentioned was how a left fielder, like he is, will let a ball drop for a single for better WAR points. I will have to go back and listen again, but I'm pretty sure he was saying that he will be rated higher if he lets it drop than if he positioned himself so he could get there sooner to catch it. 

Like, getting outs wasn't as important as getting credit for positioning in order to be paid more, since WAR is what's used to determine pay, and positioning is rated above catching the damn ball. 

It was ludicrous.  

The reason I'm adding this to this thread is talking about Cowser and how he is defensively.  I often wonder why he seems so reluctant to dive for a ball that you'd see Hays or Mullins dive for in a heartbeat.  Maybe this is part of it? 

The Ian Happ comments are misguided as teams have their own non public defensive metrics.

Re Cowser — where have you noticed any reluctance to dive?  There was play the other day (IIRC vs TBR or TBJ?) where he dove and laid out for a ball at LF line that he just missed getting to which would have ended the game.  

[SemperFi]

1 hour ago, Say O! said:

The Ian Happ comments are misguided as teams have their own non public defensive metrics.

Re Cowser — where have you noticed any reluctance to dive?  There was play the other day (IIRC vs TBR or TBJ?) where he dove and laid out for a ball at LF line that he just missed getting to which would have ended the game.  

I think game situation or context is also important.  HK was recently criticized for not diving for a ball in Norfolk-yet it was a one run game/8 or 9th inning no one on.  The play is to keep the ball in front of you, not allowing the runner to get into scoring position.  CC was tentative in the field last year but I don't see it now at all.

 

 

[justD]

4 hours ago, Explosivo said:

Or maybe he just is hesitant because he knows it’s best to give up a single than letting it get by you for a triple or inside the park homerun. I highly doubt Cowser gives a crap about WAR. There is nothing in the guy’s demeanor, personality, or anything that suggests he chases stats and places himself above the team. To say otherwise is quite ridiculous at best, and malicious at worst. He is a rookie and he will get more comfortable as he plays. With that comfortability will come trusting his ability more and more. Why even suggest a thing like you are suggesting? Just pathetic quite frankly on your part.

Oof.

Thanks for the thoughtful response, what you say makes sense.  I’d much rather think he’s better than that.

[SemperFi]

In continuance of the discussion in the Bradisch thread re: Cowser as an "elite" OF:

I think as the game slows for him he will be an plus defender in LF, hopefully with the Orioles. 

However I argued his arm is not yet reliable and while there are little or no stats available that measure accuracy (as opposed to velocity) Savant places him 107 out of 125 OF's for the most important stat-advance attempts-far behind Hays whose arm is much more respected at #10, Tony and even Mullins "noodle arm" rate much higher.  EG: Runners advance at a rate 25% higher on Cowser than Hays.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/baserunning?type=Fld&sortColumn=rate_safe&sortDirection=asc 

In each of the measurable arm metrics (other than velocity) he is far from "elite".  For advances/attempts to advance above average/succesful advances he is around ~90th in MLB and last among Orioles OF.

When you juxtapose Hays's numbers onto CC one thing is evident-Hays has a well earned rep and guys generally don't run on him-guys at this point don't respect CC's arm.

Edited June 16 by SemperFi

[Jim'sKid26]

5 hours ago, Explosivo said:

Or maybe he just is hesitant because he knows it’s best to give up a single than letting it get by you for a triple or inside the park homerun. I highly doubt Cowser gives a crap about WAR. There is nothing in the guy’s demeanor, personality, or anything that suggests he chases stats and places himself above the team. To say otherwise is quite ridiculous at best, and malicious at worst. He is a rookie and he will get more comfortable as he plays. With that comfortability will come trusting his ability more and more. Why even suggest a thing like you are suggesting? Just pathetic quite frankly on your part.

That's an incredibly harsh response to a remarkably thoughtful poster who was quoting a rather reputable pod cast that was asserting an extremely controversial subject. You have definitely lived up to your moniker.

You could have just disagreed without taking a personal shot. 

[Malike]

To think these guys don't know about the important baseball stats or care about them is silly. This jibbing didn't come from the aether, I'm sure these guys discuss this stuff a lot all living together and they know how it works.

[justD]

Here's the clip.  First, Ian gives some funny quips about how to raise or lower your WAR, but then talks about thinking about his defensive metrics and how he could improve the values. The producer, Tom, also brings up Trevor Plouffe altering his positioning later in his career to grade better. Later, at about 31:00, starts talking about players choosing positioning to improve their WAR pre-arbitration. 

When I re-listen to it, I hear Ian saying that playing back further to prevent XBH might let singles drop, not being reluctant to dive. And this isn't really too far off from what some of us would consider good/better outfield defense. 

But the whole discussion from where I've got it starting here through about 34:00 I found really fascinating. 

 

[SilverRocket]

I vaguely recall early in the year, Cowser going hard for a couple of balls (maybe not diving) and getting punished with a rough bounce off the wall leading to an extra base. Also in 2024 with OOA, I have to imagine making the catch is most rewarding, which incentivizes diving because the extra bases on failure don't count.

[OnlyOneOriole]

On 6/13/2024 at 5:51 PM, Big Mac said:

Sometimes I think you haven't had many conversations with actual human beings in your life that didn't result in you getting punched while we're blindly speculating about people. 

Another home run.  Thanks for making my point.  

Mooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

[emmett16]

16 hours ago, justD said:

Saw an episode of The Compound today where Ian Happ was talking about how many players will play for the stats - in particular, defensive metrics or even just the way WAR is calculated based on positioning. He said some infielders know they have better range to their glove side, for instance, so they'll shade the other way. But the metric dings them because they position themselves in the "wrong" spot. And yet, they're going to be paid based on WAR, so then they might instead choose to go into the "right" position even though they know they'd be able to do better where they're more comfortable. 

That was kinda stunning to me. 

Another thing he mentioned was how a left fielder, like he is, will let a ball drop for a single for better WAR points. I will have to go back and listen again, but I'm pretty sure he was saying that he will be rated higher if he lets it drop than if he positioned himself so he could get there sooner to catch it. 

Like, getting outs wasn't as important as getting credit for positioning in order to be paid more, since WAR is what's used to determine pay, and positioning is rated above catching the damn ball. 

It was ludicrous.  

The reason I'm adding this to this thread is talking about Cowser and how he is defensively.  I often wonder why he seems so reluctant to dive for a ball that you'd see Hays or Mullins dive for in a heartbeat.  Maybe this is part of it? 

Interesting.  They also know they are only going to accumulate stats and get paid if they are on the field.  Diving all over the place is a good recipe for getting injured. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

As I have said a couple of times in this thread....CC will be fine.  Better than fine.  IMO he will be an All Star for many years to come.

 

Those judging a rookie to such high standards, when he has been playing very well?  As I said kinda blows my mind.

 

OT:  Cashed out my Bryson D bet for $2000 for a profit of $1800.    Could have won $4200 if he wins but man Pinehurst #2 is tough.  One bad hole and its all over.  Hope he wins though. 

[Explosivo]

5 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

That's an incredibly harsh response to a remarkably thoughtful poster who was quoting a rather reputable pod cast that was asserting an extremely controversial subject. You have definitely lived up to your moniker.

You could have just disagreed without taking a personal shot. 

I don’t like or take kindly to podcasts or fans disparaging Orioles players by suggesting they place themselves above the team. You shouldn’t either. The amount of vitriolic comments posed by orioles fans, particularly ones marinated in the years of woe from previous managers/owners seems to have warped their brains into the hopeful shoe drop. I respond in kind like killing a fly with a swatter.