All of the sudden...

[NewMarketSean]

We go from about a dozen candidates for the starting rotation and as of 3/12, we're down to only Guthrie, Uehara and Penn as sure things for the rotation. Meanwhile, Guthrie was ripped last night in the WBC, Uehara is aching and Penn always a split-second away from being struck by lightning. Not exactly a soothing feeling.

That leaves Bergesen, Baez, Eaton, Bass and Pauley as the next-in-line starter candidates. None of them, save for Bergesen, have performed well at ST so far if they've performed at all. And it's likely that Bergesen will be sent to AAA to start the season.

So I don't blame MacPhail for wanting to sign another veteran pitcher (according to bigbird) who will pretty much be guaranteed a starting job.

[Three Run Homer]

We go from about a dozen candidates for the starting rotation and as of 3/12, we're down to only Guthrie, Uehara and Penn as sure things for the rotation. Meanwhile, Guthrie was ripped last night in the WBC, Uehara is aching and Penn always a split-second away from being struck by lightning. Not exactly a soothing feeling.

That leaves Bergesen, Baez, Eaton, Bass and Pauley as the next-in-line starter candidates. None of them, save for Bergesen, have performed well at ST so far if they've performed at all. And it's likely that Bergesen will be sent to AAA to start the season.

So I don't blame MacPhail for wanting to sign another veteran pitcher (according to bigbird) who will pretty much be guaranteed a starting job.

Pedro is the only guy still out there who is really an upgrade on Eaton and the other old farts. I don't see the point of signing someone like Odalis Perez, for instance...he was better than replacement level last year, but he was garbage the two previous seasons and is more than likely to be garbage again this year.

[NewMarketSean]

I agree, but at this point, I think AM could be more concerned with innings than actual performance.

I hope they are seriously making a pitch to Pedro as we speak.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree, but at this point, I think AM could be more concerned with innings than actual performance.

I hope they are seriously making a pitch to Pedro as we speak.

That's an odd combination of things, since Pedro hasn't thrown 150 innings since 2005, and has averaged 90 innings over the last three years. The one thing Pedro doesn't bring to the table is innings.

[SilentJames]

Well to me it looks like this:

Guthrie

Uehara

Penn

Bergensen

(Hill after brief stint on DL/ minor rehab)

Hill should be DL'ed retroactive to a couple weeks ago and get a minor-leage rehab assignment for the first two weeks of the season.

We don't really need the 5th starter until the 15th. And even then, if we can get by with a swingman that day the 16th is a day off, we could get by without a 5th starter until April 21.

The timing of Hill's injury is bad, but I like that they are taking it slow with him and not trying to rush him back.

We also have guys like Hernandez and Pauley, even after his bad start, that can be a temp number 5 guy until Hill is ready.

[paulcoates]

We go from about a dozen candidates for the starting rotation and as of 3/12, we're down to only Guthrie, Uehara and Penn as sure things for the rotation. Meanwhile, Guthrie was ripped last night in the WBC, Uehara is aching and Penn always a split-second away from being struck by lightning. Not exactly a soothing feeling.

That leaves Bergesen, Baez, Eaton, Bass and Pauley as the next-in-line starter candidates. None of them, save for Bergesen, have performed well at ST so far if they've performed at all. And it's likely that Bergesen will be sent to AAA to start the season.

So I don't blame MacPhail for wanting to sign another veteran pitcher (according to bigbird) who will pretty much be guaranteed a starting job.

I thought Iread somewhere that Pauley was removed from that list as well.

My guess

Guthrie

Uehara

Eaton

Baez

Bergesen or Penn

But, at the same time, something tells me that some names will reenter the equation that were formerly removed.

[bluedog]

I think a lot of people are ignoring Liz. He's pitched well so far this spring (arguably better than anyone except Brian Matusz) and he's an incumbent as a starter. The big thing going against him is the fact he has options left.

Right now I'd say the rotation would be:

Guthrie

Uehara

Penn

Liz

Hill (after rehab stint)

The O's don't need their 5th starter until the 12th of April. If they use someone like Baez or Hendrickson (whichever one makes the pen) as a spot starter for that starter, they don't need their 5th guy until the 21st of April. That means that Hill has 30 - 40 days from today to get back in shape to make either the April 12th or the April 21st starts. Assuming he doesn't have a setback, he should make one of those dates.

Also, if the O's DL Hill at the start of the season they can head north with 12 pitchers and 13 positional players and activate Hill on either the 12th or the 21st for his first start. It doesn't solve the 13 pitcher vs. 4 man bench problem, but it's a way to temporarily avoid making that decision because you'd be able to carry an 8 man pen and a 4 man bench until Hill is activated.

[Frobby]

This was a calculated risk MacPhail took, and it certainly appears now that he could get burned. However, it's too soon to hit the panic button. The first 2-3 weeks of the season could be rough but eventually there are enough arms here where something can be patched together. I'm not in favor of signing the kind of trash that remains out there now. The time to think about this was when solid innings eaters like Garland and Looper were available. At this point, I'd prefer to stick with what we have.

[Frobby]

I think a lot of people are ignoring Liz. He's pitched well so far this spring (arguably better than anyone except Brian Matusz) and he's an incumbent as a starter. The big thing going against him is the fact he has options left.

Right now I'd say the rotation would be:

Guthrie

Uehara

Penn

Liz

Hill (after rehab stint)

The O's don't need their 5th starter until the 12th of April. If they use someone like Baez or Hendrickson (whichever one makes the pen) as a spot starter for that starter, they don't need their 5th guy until the 21st of April. That means that Hill has 30 - 40 days from today to get back in shape to make either the April 12th or the April 21st starts. Assuming he doesn't have a setback, he should make one of those dates.

Also, if the O's DL Hill at the start of the season they can head north with 12 pitchers and 13 positional players and activate Hill on either the 12th or the 21st for his first start. It doesn't solve the 13 pitcher vs. 4 man bench problem, but it's a way to temporarily avoid making that decision because you'd be able to carry an 8 man pen and a 4 man bench until Hill is activated.

Good post. Let's not waste time with another garbage veteran.

[mikezpen]

I think everybody's being awful optimistic about Hill; you're all penciling him into the rotation but I'm not seeing that right now.

If he indeed has fluid on the elbow, that's more than a little strain to me.

[clapdiddy]

I think everybody's being awful optimistic about Hill; you're all penciling him into the rotation but I'm not seeing that right now.

If he indeed has fluid on the elbow, that's more than a little strain to me.

Yup...I see Hill with a trip to the DL and a lengthy rehab in the minors.

[vab]

Yeah, it's looking more and more like they're going to have to pick somebody up even after bringing all these guys in. Forget Pedro, he's not going to be making a comeback by facing the Yankees and Red Sox 5 or 6 times. The bottom line should be no rushing of the youngsters, though. If 2009 has to be sacrificed so be it. And, unless there's a Matt Wieters clone available, I don't want to see anything but pitchers drafted in the 1st round.

[mikezpen]

I hope that's the worst that will happen.

[TheOtherRipken]

I think at this point Baez is almost 100% going to get a shot at the rotation.

Meanwhile, McPhail isn't stupid, Pauley right now is seriously shooting himself in the foot. Don't think he's guaranteed a rotation spot because he's out of options. There's a solid shot he could be sent to AAA and not be claimed by any other team.

[McLovin]

We don't really need the 5th starter until the 15th. And even then, if we can get by with a swingman that day the 16th is a day off, we could get by without a 5th starter until April 21.

People need to understand this.

They will find 4 starters to throw out there. Hennesey, Hill, and Parrish will hopefully be there as reinforcements. The crop at AAA will be open for discussion as well in a few months.

We might be stuck with Eaton in the rotation to open the season.

At any rate, whether they sign the five best remaining starters or not, they will still probably lose more than they win. It doesn't matter. Just run the 5 healthiest bodies out there, give them a month, and move on to the next group.