Rosenthal @ The Athletic: Why top hitting prospects are having a harder transition to the majors than in the past

[MarCakes21]

Anyone also believe they're coming up earlier than ever?  I mean Langford, Holliday, Chourio all really young.  Normally rookies come up at 23-24.  So I also think they're less experienced even if they're dominating a weaker AAA environment.

[Rbiggs2525]

The Nats broadcast said going into last night we hit 205 vs 95mph plus and 205 vs 90 mph and under. So 91-94 is our sweet spot. 

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, now said:

While all of this sounds true, I wonder what the other side of the equation is. The majors also has all the world's best hitters, with their analytics teams breaking down the opposition pitching. So couldn't you argue that AAA pitchers will have an equally steep adjustment to the majors when they first arrive? It doesn't negate the argument made here, but seems it would duplicate when it comes to young pitchers getting called to the Show. Yet what we hear is only, "The jump from AAA to MLB pitching is the biggest jump in sports."

I don't think that the inverse is true. The issue for the hitters is the rapid increase of velo and the ability of the pitchers to command their stuff on the corners (even for your average middle reliever). 

I saw Holliday for one, "eliminating" certain back door breaking balls when he arrived in the Show. Now while he had probably been able to take such an approach because most of the Minor League pitchers that he saw could not execute that pitch with any type of consistency. The average MLB pitcher can command that pitch on the corners (even in hitter's counts). They can back door you 2-0 Then front door you 2-1. Then gas you up in the zone when you are looking breaking ball with 95+ when it's 2-2. 

And that is just the average middle reliever. IMO Major League pitching is more skilled than it's ever been. And what the article was pointing out is that you just don't see that kind of quality with any consistency in the Minors. Because with the rash of injuries (increased probability of almost all pitchers suffering arm injuries) if guys can execute at a high level, they are quickly brought to the Bigs. The way we slow play our position player prospects, you really can't afford to do that with pitchers because they will most likely be injured if you wait too long to call them up. The good pitchers are mostly all in the Majors.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Good post.   Makes sense.

 

In JH's case, I do think the leg kick has something to do with it.   And it goes back to the first quote in the OP about velocity.   In the majors there is just more of it.  You don't have near as much time (baseball speaking) to decide whether to swing or not.  So the timing with the leg kick may work in the minors where velocity is less, but in the majors he may be a tad slow with it compared to the speed of the pitches he is seeing.

Looks like he is back into the swing of things at Norfolk so lets hope he made an adjustment and will be back up at some point. 

I don't know if the leg kick has anything to do with it or not.  I'm willing to accept that it does, I also wouldn't be surprised if it didn't.  

Like I've said before, Ben made that comment and people have taken it and ran with it.  

I agree there's more velocity in the majors, but it's not like he hasn't seen it before.  Whatever the issue is, I'm confident JH will come back and be fine.

[OnlyOneOriole]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't know if the leg kick has anything to do with it or not.  I'm willing to accept that it does, I also wouldn't be surprised if it didn't.  

Like I've said before, Ben made that comment and people have taken it and ran with it.  

I agree there's more velocity in the majors, but it's not like he hasn't seen it before.  Whatever the issue is, I'm confident JH will come back and be fine.

I agree and honestly at least some of this is imo just a result of age.  He is a youngster and as such he lacks the experience dealing with MLB pitching at an elite level.    Only thing that can help that is experience and aging.....like a fine wine.   

Same with an NFL QB or WR when drafted.  Most struggle as rookies but the talented ones learn and get better just through the aging process.

 

Which this is totally OT but take Anthony Richardson this year in your fantasy leagues.  IF, big if, he doesn't get hurt....he is going to have a season that few have ever seen in the NFL imo. 

Edited May 9 by OnlyOneOriole

[Hallas]

One thing the article doesn't mention is that baseball agreed to use MLB baseballs, which are harder and have a lower seams, in AAA.  The season they started using the MLB baseballs (2019) AAA average OPS jumped by like 80 points.  Before 2019 you could more reliably project major league performance from AAA stats for hitters, because it was more plausible for AAA pitchers to be able to produce pitches with an MLB level shape.  The downside was that for pitchers you had a really high failure rate going from the minors to the majors.   For the Orioles in particular, the fact that Norfolk is such a hard place to hit meant that a hitter doing even passably ok meant that he was probably MLB ready.

 

I think that putting them on the same equipment in the high minors makes a lot of sense, and the problems with projecting hitters is almost certainly less than the issues with pitchers having to learn how to pitch with a different baseball.  But it's definitely something to keep in mind when looking at minor league hitting stats, especially those from AAA.

[baltfan]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This goes with the tweet I posted yesterday about the quality of fastball Holliday saw.

People laughed and acted like it was some flippant response but it’s true..you can’t learn to hit ML pitching in the minor leagues. You have to see it and adjust to it.

He was swinging and missing at everything though. It wasn’t just the fastball.  Westburg seems to indicate that more time in the minors might actually help some guys.  He stayed the longest and had the best initial results, other than Gunnar's first September.