The pitch count era

[Roy Firestone]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

This thread comes from a brief discussion @Philipand I had last night about pitch counts.  

BB-ref doesn’t have any pitch count data from before 1988, so we’ll never know how many pitches Jim Palmer or Mike Cuellar or Dave McNally pitched in a typical game. But looking just at the data from 1988 is pretty interesting.  

That year, the average pitches per start was 96.  There were 597 games where a pitcher met or exceeded 120 pitches, and 140 different pitchers did it.  Mark Langston did it 20 times.  13 pitchers had a game where they topped 150 pitches, topped by Greg Maddux at 167 pitches.  

Last year, the average pitches per start was 85.   There were 4 games where a pitcher met or exceeded 120 pitches, and nobody did it more than once.  Alex Cobb topped the list at 131 pitches.  

We’ve had this same discussion countless times regarding the innings thrown by starters, but I thought it was interesting to look at it from the context of pitches.  The idea of pulling a pitcher from a no-hitter after 103 pitches, like the O’s did with Bradish a few days ago, would have been pretty laughable in 1988.   Now, it’s barely even debatable.  

The general theory is that pitchers today don’t pace themselves, but go max effort on almost every pitch (even if it’s breaking stuff they’re trying to create max spin), whereas back in the day pitchers coasted along at 90% effort unless or until they needed to “reach for something extra.”   The ability of almost any hitter to knock one out of the park means that pitchers can’t coast like they used to.  But sometimes I wonder how so many guys could throw a massive number of pitches compared to today.  I don’t really want to rehash the whole “today’s pitches are soft” debate, but it’s really striking how much the game has changed in the last 36 years, to say nothing of the previous years where pitch count data isn’t available.  

Palmer and I have talked pitch count for years.Lets start with this. Jim COMPLETED 211 games in his career. Last season ALL of baseball had 34 complete games.Thats LESS than 1 complete game per team in a season...Think of that. Palmer would routinely throw between 130-145 pitches..even in the era of specialised relief pitchers(and he benefited from many good ones), Palmer threw at least 25-30 more pitches than most pitchers do now. Palmer is "old school" all the way, and believes many pitchers are baby-ed with the fear of injury. Jim did have arm problems for a season but never had TJ surgery...and got some non invasive treatment and recovered...he won 3 CY Young Awards AFTER his arm trouble.He believed that throwing more pitches condition an arm to longevity.He was pissed off when he heard Burnes was "fatigued" at 85 pitches..he said Earl Weaver would've had a fit hearing that...

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I just remember 120 seeming to be the magic mark for guys like Mussina and McDonald back in the day.  

McDonald was notorious for the number of warmup pitches he took, so functionally, it was probably a little more than that for him.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I always thought it was 130, thinking back to late 90's, early 2000's.  Thinking back to that time, if a starter left in the 6th inning, he was knocked out early.

I mostly remember not even thinking about pitch count.  The pitcher was doing well enough to stay in the game, or he wasn’t.  End of story.  Now I literally watch the pitch count of both teams’ pitchers like a hawk, thinking ahead to when they’ll likely get pulled for a reliever.  You can feel good about a scoreless offensive inning if you made the opposing starter throw 25+ pitches, knowing that he’ll likely be out of the game sooner.  Honestly, I preferred not thinking about it.  

[Conway12]

In combination with everything already mentioned, I think the "times through the order" penalty is also a big driver of lower pitch counts. Not many managers are leaving starters out there to face the 1-4 hitters for a 4th time anymore. Some are lucky to even pitch to those hitters a 3rd time. 

[Frobby]

I got curious about Maddux’s 167-pitch game from 1988.   He threw that many because he pitched 10.2 innings of shutout ball, before yielding 5 straight singles that scored 3 runs before he finally was relieved.  He threw 28 pitches in the 11th before manager Don Zimmer yanked him.  Talk about some old school nonsense.  

[ChosenOne21]

I'm pretty sure most modern starting pitchers could throw 130 86-88 MPH fastballs no problem. The incentives are heavily against it though, and I don't know how you put this particular genie back in the bottle.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I'm pretty sure most modern starting pitchers could throw 130 86-88 MPH fastballs no problem. The incentives are heavily against it though, and I don't know how you put this particular genie back in the bottle.

I don't think they can.

They'll get pulled for ineffectiveness way before they get to 130 pitches.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I remember reading somewhere that Nolan Ryan used to regularly throw over 200 pitches a game because he walked and struck out so many hitters and still threw complete games.  Seems like there would be logs of pitch counts somewhere for at least some of the games.  We're not talking 1910.

I don't think he did that often. I am sure he threw what would be considered a ludicrous number of pitches compared to today. But he was a freak. Had some kind of super UCL that I don't think you can use as an example for anyone else. Although I suppose today we'd never know he had a genetically superior arm because nobody would let him throw 200 pitches in a game, knowing 99.9% of people who try will break.

He also didn't help himself in any way by trying to strike out every single hitter ever, even when he's down 3-0 in the count with the bases loaded and he'd try to get the guy to swing at some unhittable pitch 18" off the plate. Ryan absolutely lapped the field (in a bad way) in walks allowed, steals allowed, errors, etc.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think they can.

They'll get pulled for ineffectiveness way before they get to 130 pitches.

Not if everyone was throwing at 85% because MLB mandated a max of six pitchers on the roster, and a total of three minor league transactions a year.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Not if everyone was throwing at 85% because MLB mandated a max of six pitchers on the roster, and a total of three minor league transactions a year.

I thought they added the pitch clock because they didn't want four hours games?

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I'm pretty sure most modern starting pitchers could throw 130 86-88 MPH fastballs no problem. The incentives are heavily against it though, and I don't know how you put this particular genie back in the bottle.

If Old Hoss Radbourn and Al Spalding could throw 600 innings in a short season I have no doubt whatsoever that someone like Verlander or Scherzer could do that, too. And probably more, since the oldtimers and their teams knew almost nothing of biomechanics or nutrition or orthopedics or any of that.

You just have to set up the right conditions.  For example, this year 21 NCAA womens softball pitchers threw 200+ innings in a 50-60 game schedule. It comes down to how badly you want pitchers to throw a lot.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I thought they added the pitch clock because they didn't want four hours games?

In the 1800s they had less than six pitchers on the roster, the minors barely existed, and a typical game took two hours. 

If you filled the ball with mashed potatoes I bet games would fly along, although many would end up 1-0 with the only run scored on a suicide squeeze of the ghost runner in the 10th.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

In the 1800s they had less than six pitchers on the roster, the minors barely existed, and a typical game took two hours. 

If you filled the ball with mashed potatoes I bet games would fly along, although many would end up 1-0 with the only run scored on a suicide squeeze of the ghost runner in the 10th.

I've been suggesting deadening the ball for years but I don't get a lot of support.

If they keep the current ball and force guys to throw 85 the record book is going to explode.

[ChosenOne21]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think they can.

They'll get pulled for ineffectiveness way before they get to 130 pitches.

Yes, obviously. I'm referring to the capabilities of their arms, not what their managers will let them do.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Roy Firestone said:

Palmer and I have talked pitch count for years.Lets start with this. Jim COMPLETED 211 games in his career. Last season ALL of baseball had 34 complete games.Thats LESS than 1 complete game per team in a season...Think of that. Palmer would routinely throw between 130-145 pitches..even in the era of specialised relief pitchers(and he benefited from many good ones), Palmer threw at least 25-30 more pitches than most pitchers do now. Palmer is "old school" all the way, and believes many pitchers are baby-ed with the fear of injury. Jim did have arm problems for a season but never had TJ surgery...and got some non invasive treatment and recovered...he won 3 CY Young Awards AFTER his arm trouble.He believed that throwing more pitches condition an arm to longevity.He was pissed off when he heard Burnes was "fatigued" at 85 pitches..he said Earl Weaver would've had a fit hearing that...

I certainly respect Palmer and his opinions, but I'd bet he normally sat at a comfortable 90mph, and almost never threw a pitch with the effort Felix Bautista uses on every pitch. It's a very different game today, and if Jim came up today he'd be taught to maximize velocity and spin, not innings.