The 2024 Trade Deadline

[LGOrioles]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Hopefully Puk and Cowser/Kjerstad can settle it in the World Series!

Many of us lived through Andrew Miller, who AJ Puk's last couple months breakout reminds me some of.     It is easier to accept it as real when scouting wise it is a Miller-Puk level pedigree.    That said - Miller had 2.5 good seasons, not 2.5 good months.     Trade off is 3 Octobers of Puk vs. 1 of Miller.

If the deal tonight were Kjerstad for Puk, I'd have some churning in the pit of my stomach like you probably ought to after a high value trade, but hypothetically I think I might also be proud of Elias for taking a kind of risk on a few Adley Octobers he hasn't yet.

Miller was unbelievable. Complete beast. I like Puk a lot and he looked filthy the other night but I wouldn’t be too happy giving up Kierstad for him. Probably could stomach anyone else below him on the prospect list though. 

[RVAOsFan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Snell can only be looked at as a rental, so the return is only going to be so much.

Perfect. That’s what we need to be looking at IMO. Anyone who is available with multiple years of control and the quality we should be looking for will cost too much in prospect capital. Get a couple rentals, hold on to the big 3-4, sign Burnes in the offseason if Snell options out. 

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Snell can only be looked at as a rental, so the return is only going to be so much.

Snell has an opt out doesnt he?  That sort of scary, as if he gets hurt, O's on the hook for the whole deal.  If he's lights out, he opts out. The worst of both worlds.

[RVAOsFan]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Kjerstad for Puk would be a mistake.   I wouldn’t be proud of that.   He needs to get some relievers and they shouldn’t cost someone like Kjerstad.    I am a little worried that he won’t pay up for guys like Scott and Estevez who will be cheaper because of the service time.

I am getting caught up a little late here. Is Kjerstad really the equivalent Miami received for Puk? Wow. 

[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, RVAOsFan said:

I am getting caught up a little late here. Is Kjerstad really the equivalent Miami received for Puk? Wow. 

No, but I think Kjerstad is the lowest valued individual Oriole that would have beaten Mike Hazen's bid.

The risk and if you would take it for Deyvison or anybody is how to weigh Puk's last couple months.     Giant left handed pitchers I believe can take a long time to figure stuff out.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, RVAOsFan said:

I am getting caught up a little late here. Is Kjerstad really the equivalent Miami received for Puk? Wow. 

I don’t thinks so.  I read something that said this guy was currently the D-Backs #8 prospect.  They also left him unprotected this past winter which tells me something too.    I mean, his numbers are great and he’s very young so I guess there’s potential.  I’ll check BA updated mid season top 100.

[Sydnor]

5 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I am getting caught up a little late here. Is Kjerstad really the equivalent Miami received for Puk? Wow. 

De Los Santos plus is not equivalent to Kjerstad. Kjerstad is significantly more valuable. De Los Santos’ numbers are inflated and the chase rate is a real problem. From Keith Law:

De los Santos has had about as good a year on the surface as any hitter in the minors, hitting .372/.426/.696 in 38 games for Double-A Amarillo and then hitting .289/.338/.588 for Triple-A Reno, with a minor league-leading 28 homers … but it’s smoke and mirrors. He does have power, but Amarillo and Reno are two of the best hitters’ parks in all of professional baseball, with Reno at 4,505 feet above sea level, meaning pitches don’t move the same way as they do at sea level. Just since getting to triple A, he’s swung at pitches out of the strike zone 43 percent of the time, and he’s whiffed on 36 percent of breaking balls regardless of location. He is “power over hit” incarnate, and he’s already moved to first base, so he has to produce on offense to have any value. The silver lining for Marlins fans is that he absolutely has the power you need at that position, and he’s only 21, so he has time to improve the approach. The Diamondbacks were obviously skeptical of his ability to do so, as they omitted him from their 40-man roster in November, losing him to Cleveland in the Rule 5 draft but getting him back in spring training. He’s a high-risk, high-reward prospect.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5659879/2024/07/25/miami-marlins-aj-puk-arizona-diamondbacks/?source=user_shared_article

 

[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t thinks so.  I read something that said this guy was currently the D-Backs #8 prospect.  They also left him unprotected this past winter which tells me something too.    I mean, his numbers are great and he’s very young so I guess there’s potential.  I’ll check BA updated mid season top 100.

Unprotected says something, and of course the last bunch of years with Anthony Santander makes very familiar for us the kind of talent a team accessing the international talent pipeline long term might once in a while have to take a risk on.

[RZNJ]

It’s not the be all, end all but Baseball America just updated their top 100 on July 23 to include the 2024 draft.  
 

Kjerstad is #26.  De Los Santos is not ranked.

[RZNJ]

MLB pipeline doesn’t have De Los Santos in its top 100 either.  Just saying.

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

MLB pipeline doesn’t have De Los Santos in its top 100 either.  Just saying.

Fair enough.

Bendix already went young with Dillon Head as the Luis Arraez trade so he might like Thomas Sosa more than Kjerstad as a player profile for when his top pitchers regain full strength down the line.

I do think it is worth noting Puk went before Scott - I generally feel like that is the market identifying Puk as the top guy, though the years of control factor into that.

1 down, 1 to go on Miami having maybe the 2 best relief options for the next 3 months.

[Malike]

16 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Fair enough.

Bendix already went young with Dillon Head as the Luis Arraez trade so he might like Thomas Sosa more than Kjerstad as a player profile for when his top pitchers regain full strength down the line.

I do think it is worth noting Puk went before Scott - I generally feel like that is the market identifying Puk as the top guy, though the years of control factor into that.

1 down, 1 to go on Miami having maybe the 2 best relief options for the next 3 months.

Miami did say they want young, younger and youngest prospects back in trades they are making. I doubt they want a mid 20's guy like Kjerstad, they'd probably flip him for more youth.

[OriolesMagic83]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/mariners-to-acquire-randy-arozarena.html

Mariners acquiring Randy Arozarena. 

No details as of yet.

 

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Fair enough.

Bendix already went young with Dillon Head as the Luis Arraez trade so he might like Thomas Sosa more than Kjerstad as a player profile for when his top pitchers regain full strength down the line.

I do think it is worth noting Puk went before Scott - I generally feel like that is the market identifying Puk as the top guy, though the years of control factor into that.

1 down, 1 to go on Miami having maybe the 2 best relief options for the next 3 months.

I think players like Aron Estrada, Thomas Sosa, and Luis De Leon definitely could be of interest to Bendix if we go for Scott.   As you mentioned, Scott as a rental should be cheaper than Puk.   

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/mariners-to-acquire-randy-arozarena.html

Mariners acquiring Randy Arozarena. 

No details as of yet.

 

Wow.  This is starting to get interesting.