The 2024 Trade Deadline

[CaptainRedbeard]

If they want a righty corner OF, does that mean that they either don’t think Norby’s defense there is good enough, or they only want to add one if they trade Norby?

This long-standing interest in a righty OF that’s been rumored for a while now made sense when they needed a righty CF, since they never played Hays or Mateo in CF. But now with Pache and no Hays, they could just play Norby in LF - and his bat vs LHP is plenty good enough. 

[interloper]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

It’s the least risky thing you can do.

What bold moves have we made that reflected a pivot from past preferences of hedging? That would be a risk to change and deviate from would you’ve always done.

The risk is that by not picking a lane you weaken the team. Some guys get buried in AAA, some vets get benched. You have two groups of players who are unhappy with their nebulously defined roles. 

I understand what you're saying though and agree Elias is acting well within his prior M.O.

[sportsfan8703]

If we get one of Anderson/Fedde then that plugs a hole for next year’s team too. 

Skubal is a “go for it” move that had we had not had this collapse maybe you do. Not now. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Outside of the big 3, there isn’t too much to trade right now. 

Povich, McDermott, Fabian, Stowers, Norby, Beavers, Nunez, Bradfield, de Leon, Liranzo, Arias, Almeyda, Bright, etc.

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

The risk is that by not picking a lane you weaken the team. Some guys get buried in AAA, some vets get benched. You have two groups of players who are unhappy with their nebulously defined roles. 

I understand what you're saying though and agree Elias is acting well within his prior M.O.

Exactly. Eventually you gotta pick which girl you wanna date. You can try to lead them all on, but then they all get unhappy. That’s what happened here. Gotta choose. 

Edited July 28 by sportsfan8703

[interloper]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

If we get one of Anderson/Fedde then that plugs a hole for next year’s team too. 

Skubal is a “go for it” move that had we had not had this collapse maybe you do. Not now. 

At this point, I would love Anderson or Fedde in lieu of someone like Skubal who seems like he's staying put. It would likely push Irvin off this roster which would be an easy addition by subtraction, and push Suarez to the pen where he will be a much better Irvin.

[Aristotelian]

12 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The Giants aren't going to agree to pay a single penny of his possible 2025 salary unless they get a good return. That defeats one of the main points of trading him, to shed the risk posed by his 2025 player option, and it also defeats one of the main points of trading for him, to get a potential ace for pennies on the dollar by assuming the risk posed by his 2025 player option.

They insure pro wrestlers who get dropped on their heads for a living, so probably. 

Definitely probably.

Alternatively, Elias could place a large hedging prop bet on Draft Kings

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Povich, McDermott, Fabian, Stowers, Norby, Beavers, Nunez, Bradfield, de Leon, Liranzo, Arias, Almeyda, Bright, etc.

Which of those players will ever be a starting position player for us or a starting pitcher?

They’re not chopped liver, but that’s how it’s looking. I’m not dismissing any of them either. Just being a realist outside of EBJ. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Which of those players will ever be a starting position player for us or a starting pitcher?

What does that have to do with...

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Outside of the big 3, there isn’t too much to trade right now. 

...which is what I was specifically refuting?

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

At this point, I would love Anderson or Fedde in lieu of someone like Skubal who seems like he's staying put. It would likely push Irvin off this roster which would be an easy addition by subtraction, and push Suarez to the pen where he will be a much better Irvin.

Exactly. Suarez and McDermott could give some life the the pen. 

Post Deadline 

Burnes #1

Grayson #3

Eflin #3

Fedde/Anderson #3

Kremer #4.5( he’s better than a #5, but not a guy you want starting Game 4. 

Bullpen - Kimbrel, Webb, Cano, Dominguez, Suarez, McDermott, Perez, Akin

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I agree that it isn't impossible, but going from a bottom 5 payroll straight to $150 million seems a bit overzealous. I would expect a more gradual escalation, but then again, Snell would only be a 1 year commitment if he opts in, so maybe that would be acceptable to ownership for 1 "WS or bust" year.

 

They may not go to $150M in one year, but that’s not unheard of. And they are at $105M for this year and the bullpen is also dirt cheap next year if they don’t pick up Kimbrel’s option, so they could in theory spend $80M on starting pitching without hardly raising the payroll at all. 

In practice I expect they will be looking to spend to add one SP this offseason in addition to Grayson, Eflin and Kremer, with Povich/McDermott/Suarez/Irvin as the 5th starter candidates and Bradish coming back before the end of the year. That could be Burnes but more likely will be somebody cheaper. Getting stuck with a $31M tab for an injured Snell would be a huge anchor, but I don’t think it would necessarily make it impossible to keep Burnes to add some other cheaper SP. 

Since Snell’s contract will make him much more affordable in trade, it’s not a bad roll of the dice - the Orioles are positioned better than most other teams to have to swallow that $31M poison pill and shift gears if they get unlucky.

[sportsfan8703]

A guy like Pache. He’s used to be a role player. Just like Urias. They’re happy with that. 

Guys like Hays, Mullins, and Mountcastle, aren’t used to being part time players. They haven’t gotten that FA deal yet. They want to start somewhere. 

See how this happened?

[ScGO's]

18 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Povich, McDermott, Fabian, Stowers, Norby, Beavers, Nunez, Bradfield, de Leon, Liranzo, Arias, Almeyda, Bright, etc.

This is most other teams top 10+

[Just Regular]

Year over year, Eflin inherits Burnes' top tier spot, and the Santander-Kimbrel items roll back to minimum salaried players, though I imagine Roch will highlight the org's generosity guaranteeing injured Felix Bautista ~150% of the league minimum.

By Opening Day, can the Orioles acquire rights to Adley's 2028 to assure a 5th aimed shot from here with the entire group?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, ScGO's said:

This is most other teams top 10+

Yup.

Saying that "we have nothing to trade outside of Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo" is ridiculous, and laughably so.