I sort of don't get Elias's plan

[gtman55]

First of all, I'm talking about his plan for the Orioles moving forward. I get what the front office was doing early on. Turning around a very bad team by drafting high, picking high upside college hitters the might quickly improve the club. And he's done a helluva job drafting positional talent. But I never understood his reluctance to draft top end college pitching talent.

So what we have is a minor league system system of super talented hitters who are blocked from making the bigs because there's literally too many of them. On the flip side there's little to no major league quality pitching talent at all.

Fast forward to this off-season. Elias knew damn well the odds of Means and Bradish missing significant time was pretty much 100%. We already had lost Felix for the upcoming season and Wells has a long injury history.  He also had to know Cano wasn't the heir apparent at closer or even a high leverage guy.

So what does he do? He brings in an aging Kimbrel to close. And we get Burnes. And believe me, I like Burnes but that wasn't nearly enough for a team with World Series aspirations.

And now in late June, it's coming unglued. The pitching injuries are mounting. Guys like Irvin and Suarez are showing they just don't have what it takes. We choose our best minor league arm and it's Cade Povich. I like the kid but he's a fifth starter at best.

I guess my main question in this is whether or not Elias realizes how mediocre the pitching staff currently is. And he needs to make moves ASAP because I can see things unraveling. We have the biggest surplus of trade bait in the MLB. At a minimum we need a top end starter and a top notch reliever. Time is ticking 

 

 

 

[Chromehill]

The good thing about the current playoff setup is that you do not have to panic.  Back when only the division winners made the playoffs, you could not fall too far behind.  After losing 5 games in a row, the O's are still only 2 games out of first for the division and are 7 games up in the wildcard.  

Elias has to wait over the next month to see exactly what the team needs.  If you try to make a trade at this time, you are going to overpay because the other teams are waiting for the deadline to hope a team becomes desperate.  You also have the issue of a most of the NL teams being in contention for the wildcard, not many sellers out there.  In another month, hopefully a few more NL teams realize they need to sell and that widens the trade market hopefully driving the price down for what has to be given up.  

[owknows]

22 minutes ago, gtman55 said:

First of all, I'm talking about his plan for the Orioles moving forward. I get what the front office was doing early on. Turning around a very bad team by drafting high, picking high upside college hitters the might quickly improve the club. And he's done a helluva job drafting positional talent. But I never understood his reluctance to draft top end college pitching talent.

So what we have is a minor league system system of super talented hitters who are blocked from making the bigs because there's literally too many of them. On the flip side there's little to no major league quality pitching talent at all.

Fast forward to this off-season. Elias knew damn well the odds of Means and Bradish missing significant time was pretty much 100%. We already had lost Felix for the upcoming season and Wells has a long injury history.  He also had to know Cano wasn't the heir apparent at closer or even a high leverage guy.

So what does he do? He brings in an aging Kimbrel to close. And we get Burnes. And believe me, I like Burnes but that wasn't nearly enough for a team with World Series aspirations.

And now in late June, it's coming unglued. The pitching injuries are mounting. Guys like Irvin and Suarez are showing they just don't have what it takes. We choose our best minor league arm and it's Cade Povich. I like the kid but he's a fifth starter at best.

I guess my main question in this is whether or not Elias realizes how mediocre the pitching staff currently is. And he needs to make moves ASAP because I can see things unraveling. We have the biggest surplus of trade bait in the MLB. At a minimum we need a top end starter and a top notch reliever. Time is ticking 

 

 

 

By no small margin, the chances of a drafted player making the majors for more than a cup of coffee are significantly better with a position player (and particularly a skill position player) than with a pitcher. And the higher the draft position, the greater the differential. So if one were to craft a strategy around this observation, it might be to load up on skill position players that seem to have big bat potential, and use them not only to stock your own club, but to acquire pitching later via trade (after other teams have assumed the risk of vetting the pitching for you). This startegy also affords you the ability of "selling high" on the better seasons of your MLB position players, in later arb.

To some extent this appears to be what Elias is doing (although he doesn't seem to have mastered the "selling high" part..

 I would also suggest that he would be better served by attempting to acquire a larger portion of promising AAA arms for his stockpile of position players, than trying to acquire MLB arms.

That said,  the strategy only works if you actually TRADE the talent proactively, rather than waiting for logjams to occur, and for your MLB talent to reach FA

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

By no small margin, the chances of a drafted player making the majors for more than a cup of coffee are significantly better with a position player (and particularly a skill position player) than with a pitcher. And the higher the draft position, the greater the differential. So if one were to craft a strategy around this observation, it might be to load up on skill position players that seem to have big bat potential, and use them not only to stock your own club, but to acquire pitching later via trade (after other teams have assumed the risk of vetting the pitching for you). This startegy also affords you the ability of "selling high" on the better seasons of your MLB position players, in later arb.

To some extent this appears to be what Elias is doing (although he doesn't seem to have mastered the "selling high" part..

 I would also suggest that he would be better served by attempting to acquire a larger portion of promising AAA arms for his stockpile of position players, than trying to acquire MLB arms.

That said,  the strategy only works if you actually TRADE the talent proactively, rather than waiting for logjams to occur, and for your MLB talent to reach FA

From what I've been reading those are rare as hen's teeth right now.

[owknows]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

From what I've been reading those are rare as hen's teeth right now.

Promising AAA arms?

[gtman55]

6 minutes ago, owknows said:

 

I would also suggest that he would be better served by attempting to acquire a larger portion of promising AAA arms for his stockpile of position players, than trying to acquire MLB arms.

That said,  the strategy only works if you actually TRADE the talent proactively, rather than waiting for logjams to occur, and for your MLB talent to reach FA

That's kind of what I was trying to convey but you stated it more eloquently.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

Promising AAA arms?

Yes, I bolded that part to indicate that was to what I was referring.

[Sports Guy]

It’s becoming unglued?  Because of losing streak that almost every team goes through in any given season?  Really? 
 

 

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s becoming unglued?  Because of losing streak that almost every team goes through in any given season?  Really? 
 

 

Lots of panic around here right now. Guys forget the Rangers were third in their division and only had 88 wins last season.

Edited June 26 by Roll Tide

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes, I bolded that part to indicate that was to what I was referring.

Ah... sorry... your bolded was buried in the hidden part of the quote window in my browser, so I missed it.

And yeah, I would agree. There doesn't seem to be a monster surplus of promising AAA arms. I'd suggest maybe two reasons for this.

1) It serves to reinforce the idea of quality pitchers being harder to judge than quality position players.

2) It is somewhat indicative of the toll that bio-mechanics imposes on pitchers being coached into the high 90's

That said, the smaller selection pool of pitchers should be somewhat offset by the larger pool of position players you've hoarded, if you've employed the strategy well. Making you the queen of the trade deadline dance.  I think our bigger problem has been holding on to our journeymen MLB players after they've had a good year, instead of trading them at peak (rather than a true lack of AAA or even AA arms).

To be successful at this you have to have to courage to be a seller at the deadline even when you have a winning record and are a contender.

[owknows]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s becoming unglued?  Because of losing streak that almost every team goes through in any given season?  Really? 
 

 

FWIW... I don't see anything coming unglued at all.

I am talking about strategic rather than tactical observations.

(I suspect you weren't including me in the admonition, but I thought I'd clarify)

[gtman55]

You have to admit this is kind of nuts. These are the top pitching prospects in baseball. How many Orioles do you see?

1   Paul Skenes    RHP    PIT  
9    Yoshinobu Yamamoto    RHP    LAD  
21    Cade Horton    RHP    CHC   
23    Andrew Painter    RHP    PHI 
31    Jackson Jobe    RHP    DET   
39    Jacob Misiorowski    RHP    MIL   
55    Chase Hampton    RHP    NYY   
56    Mason Miller    RHP    OAK  
59    AJ Smith-Shawver    RHP   ATL
60    Drew Thorpe    RHP    SD  
64    Hurston Waldrep    RHP    ATL
65    Tink Hence    RHP    STL   
67    Dylan Lesko    RHP    SD    
68    Brock Porter    RHP    TEX   
70    Rhett Lowder    RHP    CIN   
75    Mick Abel    RHP    PHI  
83    Noble Meyer    RHP    MIA
84    Jared Jones    RHP    PIT    
87    Chase Petty    RHP    CIN   
94    Cade Cavalli    RHP    WAS    
103    Jack Leiter    RHP    TEX    
113    Daniel Espino    RHP    CLE   
123    Ben Joyce    RHP    LAA   
129    Gavin Stone    RHP    LAD    
132    Connor Phillips    RHP    CIN   
133    River Ryan    RHP    LAD    
136    Christian Scott    RHP    NYM  
141    Tekoah Roby    RHP    STL   
145    Blade Tidwell    RHP    NYM  
147    Wilmer Flores    RHP    DET  
148    Orion Kerkering    RHP    PHI   
150    Nick Frasso    RHP    LAD 
152    Bubba Chandler    RHP    PIT  
161    Chase Dollander    RHP    COL   
164    Landen Maroudis    RHP    TOR    
165    Ty Madden    RHP    DET    
166    Ben Brown    RHP    CHC   
172    Emerson Hancock    RHP    SEA    
176    Will Warren    RHP    NYY  
177    Owen Murphy    RHP    ATL    
181    Carlos F. Rodriguez    RHP    MIL  
183    Nick Nastrini    RHP    CHW  
186    Spencer Arrighetti    RHP    HOU   
189    Luis Morales    RHP    OAK    

To me, champions have great pitching and defense. Our pitching is a mess right now.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, owknows said:

Ah... sorry... your bolded was buried in the hidden part of the quote window in my browser, so I missed it.

And yeah, I would agree. There doesn't seem to be a monster surplus of promising AAA arms. I'd suggest maybe two reasons for this.

1) It serves to reinforce the idea of quality pitchers being harder to judge than quality position players.

2) It is somewhat indicative of the toll that bio-mechanics imposes on pitchers being coached into the high 90's

That said, the smaller selection pool of pitchers should be somewhat offset by the larger pool of position players you've hoarded, if you've employed the strategy well. Making you the queen of the trade deadline dance.  I think our bigger problem has been holding on to our journeymen MLB players after they've had a good year, instead of trading them at peak (rather than a true lack of AAA or even AA arms).

To be successful at this you have to have to courage to be a seller at the deadline even when you have a winning record and are a contender.

I think the main reason for this is the number of ML players who have had serious injuries in the last two seasons.  Anyone close to major league ready has been called up.

[gtman55]

I never said it's becoming unglued. Reading is fundamental.

I said if we don't make moves I could see things unraveling.

[owknows]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think the main reason for this is the number of ML players who have had serious injuries in the last two seasons.  Anyone close to major league ready has been called up.

For the same reason I mentioned.

The biomechanical toll that pitching in the high 90's takes on the elbow.

Whether it happens in AAA or early MLB... it has the same impact on the pool of talent. Slides it all up.