Skubal trade..Kjerstad, Mountcastle, McDermott and Bradfield?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

I mean, of course, SG if we're playing pretend you make that trade 100% of the time. I thought you were suggesting that those players get it done so I voted no based on that.

I said in the first post I didn’t think they would make this trade and that I’m throwing this out there for discussion purposes. I couldn’t have been more clear about that and have since said it other times in this thread.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The problem with Skubal is the injury history and lack of IP.

The “penalty” for going after him is that I wouldn’t offer any of our top 3 because of that.

I would trade more for him than Crochet because Skubal should be in the rotation this entire season and I feel a lot better about him being healthy and a top starter in 2025…but the threat of injury is real, so I’m not trading the top 3.

The problem with pitching is the threat of injury for everyone is real. You just have to accept that fact and hope while they're here it doesn't happen. Of course, the more years you have a guy the better the chance you get a ROI on your prospect capital. If you get a guy for 5 years and he goes down for 18 months, you still have a shot at getting value from them.

[Bemorewins]

27 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

SG , I concur with your statement on Skubal . However, have the Tigers announced his availability for trade ( publicly or privately) yet  ?   If Tigers won’t trade him , it wouldn’t make sense for Elias to keep pestering them . He needs to focus on available players 

How do we know if he is available or not? And how do we conclude that Elias is “pestering” the Tigers?

Have the Orioles come out and declared who is available or who they would be willing to trade? From my limited knowledge, that’s not how it often works. 

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

How do we know if he is available or not? And how do we conclude that Elias is “pestering” the Tigers?

Have the Orioles come out and declared who is available or who they would be willing to trade? From my limited knowledge, that’s not how it often works. 

I'd be willing to bet that nearly anyone they want is available. They just have to say the right names, and therein lies the problem, they aren't going to say those names.

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I agree they wouldn’t make it. I was asking the question for a reason and my suspicion was realized by this thread and the same poll question I asked on twitter.

Im surprised at how many said no but I also thought I would get more nos than I think should be.

Sometimes it’s good to get a pulse for what others think. I think we’re pretty demanding on what we want versus what we want to trade. Plus, we overrate Mounty and Cowser here. 

[Malike]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Sometimes it’s good to get a pulse for what others think. I think we’re pretty demanding on what we want versus what we want to trade. Plus, we overrate Mounty and Cowser here. 

I hope Cowser gets 500 ABs this year against both side pitching. He's starting to look like a platoon player and a near-full season of ABs would be helpful in the information gathering process on that.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Sometimes it’s good to get a pulse for what others think. I think we’re pretty demanding on what we want versus what we want to trade. Plus, we overrate Mounty and Cowser here. 

Look who’s talking.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

The problem with pitching is the threat of injury for everyone is real. You just have to accept that fact and hope while they're here it doesn't happen. Of course, the more years you have a guy the better the chance you get a ROI on your prospect capital. If you get a guy for 5 years and he goes down for 18 months, you still have a shot at getting value from them.

Of course it’s always a threat but some are just bigger threats. Some have better track records. Some are more reliable and more available. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

I hope Cowser gets 500 ABs this year against both side pitching. He's starting to look like a platoon player and a near-full season of ABs would be helpful in the information gathering process on that.

Look at Hays, Mullins, and Santander.   Those guys didn’t develop into regulars for 2-3 years.   Cowser might never develop but I’d bet on it.

[Allan Bryant]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

How do we know if he is available or not? And how do we conclude that Elias is “pestering” the Tigers?

Have the Orioles come out and declared who is available or who they would be willing to trade? From my limited knowledge, that’s not how it often works. 

My knowledge of Skubal’s availability is based upon reading others comments on this forum . I’m just assuming he’s not and Tigers are not listing him . 
My other comment about Elias pestering the Tigers is assuming he knows Skubal is not available but he’s being persistent on him . 
I hope I’m wrong on both counts , if so and we end getting Skubal here , it would be game changing bold move 

[foxfield]

23 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I recognize that we would be surrendering value (especially in Kjerstad who seems like a natural replacement for Santander at season's end). And I also recognize that some persons/posters will be unhappy if we have to trade any prospects of value (especially a bat who could be as good as Kjerstad).

However, what we are exchanging it for is Tarik Skubal who is one of the very best starting pitchers in the sport. Having a threesome of Burnes, Rodriguez, and Skubal puts us in a position to be prohibitive favorites this season AND it protects us in case we lose Burnes in the offseason.

While I am sure all O's fans (save for one) appreciate what Burnes has given us this season. He has been the best starter that we have had in decades and may even win the Cy Young. That is not something that should not be discounted when considering what his loss will mean to next year's team. Especially given the injury to Bradish. Burnes post every 5th day and gives you consistent length and quality. That is not easy to find or replace!

It may not be the wisest thing to retain him (after the season) at his age and at the projected cost. But it won't be a matter of signing a lesser or older pitcher (like Scherzer) to take his place. 

Now back to Skubal, it must be acknowledged that it is a risk to acquire ANY starting pitcher, given the frequency of injuries in the sport currently. But one must also ask, how many opportunities like this are we going to get going forward? We will most probably NEVER have a starting rotation with pitchers who are as good as Burnes AND Skubal AND Grayson TOGETHER!

IMO it has to be something that you seriously consider and don't outright dismiss. Gunnar is healthy and having an amazing season THIS YEAR. Santander is having a career year THIS YEAR. Adley is healthy and putting up his best numbers THIS YEAR. Westburg is healthy and will probably be an all-star THIS YEAR. Those things may not be true next year or in an undetermined future season.

As I have been reminded regularly the Braves and Dodgers (with all of their talent) have only one the big prize once (so far). This may be our year and Skubal may be the piece to put us over the top? 

Lastly, I think we have so much talent right now that even if we have to lose a promising bat like Heston Kjerstad, it will in no way mortgage or jeopardize our chances this season or next (and maybe going into the unknown projectable future). We have the #1 offense in the game as things stand now.

I continue to think you are blowing hot air, but I believe that if Silent J could lead a package for Skubal, Elias would pull that trigger. 

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Look at Hays, Mullins, and Santander.   Those guys didn’t develop into regulars for 2-3 years.   Cowser might never develop but I’d bet on it.

You could argue that Mullins should have been a platoon player with a low .600's OPS against LHP in his career, but he doesn't strike out more than a third of the time against them and they let him play every day on terrible teams. Santander only got a few ABs in 2017 and 2018, in 2019, his first season of getting over 400 PAs he OPS'd .753 and .810 against RHP/LHP.  He's always had about equal splits over the course of his career. Hays didn't get near a full season of ABs until his age 24 season. He got 60 at age 21 in 2017 and 68 in 2019 as a 23 year old. Like Mullins, he got a lot of time on a terrible team in 2021 and OPS'd .683 and .897 vs RHP/LHP.

Cowser at 24 is getting his first season where he's going to get 500 PAs currently at 278 he's OPS'ing .763 and .674 against RHP/LHP. The bigger problem is LHP is striking him out more than 30% of the time. He's a guy you pull for a RHB late in a game. Hopefully, that's not always the case but it's who he is right now. In 2022 in the MiL they gave him 158 PAs against LHP and he OPS'd .616, in 2023 they only gave him 99 PA's against LHP. I'm not saying that anything is written in stone, but he's certainly looked like he might be a platoon bat. Time will tell and hopefully, they give him a chance to prove it one way or the other.

[EddeeEddee]

Yes, you do that trade, but I'm not sure Detroit will.  They may demand more than one arm back in a trade, and they may demand Cowser over Kjerstad.  

Offense is not a real issue for the Orioles.  Pitching has suddenly become a major issue for the Orioles.  You make a deal to get one of the top arms in the league who is more than a year and a half under control.

But the bullpen is an even bigger problem.  Who do the O's then trade to get some relief help?  There is no one ready in the minors.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

You could argue that Mullins should have been a platoon player with a low .600's OPS against LHP in his career, but he doesn't strike out more than a third of the time against them and they let him play every day on terrible teams. Santander only got a few ABs in 2017 and 2018, in 2019, his first season of getting over 400 PAs he OPS'd .753 and .810 against RHP/LHP.  He's always had about equal splits over the course of his career. Hays didn't get near a full season of ABs until his age 24 season. He got 60 at age 21 in 2017 and 68 in 2019 as a 23 year old. Like Mullins, he got a lot of time on a terrible team in 2021 and OPS'd .683 and .897 vs RHP/LHP.

Cowser at 24 is getting his first season where he's going to get 500 PAs currently at 278 he's OPS'ing .763 and .674 against RHP/LHP. The bigger problem is LHP is striking him out more than 30% of the time. He's a guy you pull for a RHB late in a game. Hopefully, that's not always the case but it's who he is right now. In 2022 in the MiL they gave him 158 PAs against LHP and he OPS'd .616, in 2023 they only gave him 99 PA's against LHP. I'm not saying that anything is written in stone, but he's certainly looked like he might be a platoon bat. Time will tell and hopefully, they give him a chance to prove it one way or the other.

I bet a huge majority of ML players should be platoon guys, it’s just that most aren’t treated that way.

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I bet a huge majority of ML players should be platoon guys, it’s just that most aren’t treated that way.

If you are looking at just OPS, probably. There are obviously other things to consider.