Outfield PA the rest of the way

[Malike]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

As he causes more damage, the walks will increase. He has a good approach and is a pretty disciplined hitter.

He needs to start showing he can spit on off-speed out of the zone, if he can do that he'd probably walk a ton and strike out much less. He's easy to fool right now, but he's young. It looks to me like he's in a mode now where he's just sitting on off-speed and he's not driving fastballs down the middle because he's protecting against off-speed pitches. He's been fouling a lot of hittable fastballs away.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I disagree with that thought…well, sort of at least.

The whiff rate and K rate will likely keep him from being high average hitter (if he doesn’t fix that aspect of his game).

however, I think he will still walk a lot and cause a lot of damage..in other words, he may hit 240 but I think a 340-360 OBP with a 450-500 slugging is very possible.

I know my position on playing time in this thread may make it seem like I'm down on Cowser, but I am not down on him long term.   I feel like his can improve his whiff rate over time, and learn to pull the ball a bit more on the right pitches, which will help close the wOBA - xwOBA gap.   

Right now he has a .221/.309/.430 slash line.   I think the lower end of your OBP and SLG ranges are certainly possible if he settles in as a .240 hitter (so, .240/.340/.450) but the upper end (.240/.360/.500) is a pretty big stretch.  

For the time being, I just want the free fall to stop (.185/.283/.335 over the team's last 63 games) and to see him come up with an approach that works better in RISP-type situations.   By the way, he actually has struck out a little less during his cold period (54/198) than he did when he was hot (27/80).   So, it doesn't seem like it's just whiffs that are the problem.

[Sports Guy]

Bad luck is still his main problem. If he had a 235/320/460 line, which he easily could have, we wouldn’t talk about a lot of these other things that much.

He has been unlucky and that is compounded by the whiff rate and Ks.

[Pickles]

I object to the idea that Cowser is our best defensive outfielder, regardless of what defensive stats say.

The Orioles certainly don't think he's a better CF than Cedric Mullins.

And I don't either.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Bad luck is still his main problem. If he had a 235/320/460 line, which he easily could have, we wouldn’t talk about a lot of these other things that much.

He has been unlucky and that is compounded by the whiff rate and Ks.

Well, we just differ on the idea that the main driver of wOBA and xwOBA discrepancies is luck.   

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I object to the idea that Cowser is our best defensive outfielder, regardless of what defensive stats say.

The Orioles certainly don't think he's a better CF than Cedric Mullins.

And I don't either.

Huh?  So because Mullins is a better CFer, that makes him a better defensive OFer overall?

I would bet on Cowser being better in CF than Mullins would be at the corners, especially once you factor into his arm.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Huh?  So because Mullins is a better CFer, that makes him a better defensive OFer overall?

I would bet on Cowser being better in CF than Mullins would be at the corners, especially once you factor into his arm.

I mean , CF is the harder position so yeah.  The better CF is the better OF.  This is basic defensive spectrum stuff.

 

[Just Regular]

We hope he'll hit more, but it is interesting to look at Cowser as a Kiermaier, Siri or Rojas good glove, no hit type for CF.

His bat now certainly isn't carrying LF against the hot Hays-Kjerstad platoon.

The overall ~110 wRC+ would be near Bleday and Bellinger at the back of the Top 10 among 2024's CF bats.

fWAR loves his defense so well that it gives him double Wyatt Langford's fWAR today with the offense of both guys at basically a tie with ~275 PA's of ~110 wRC+.

It will be tough for him to get going if the primary offensive role becomes that he's "less bad" than Mullins v. LHP.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I mean , CF is the harder position so yeah.  The better CF is the better OF.  This is basic defensive spectrum stuff.

 

Except it’s not. Just because you can handle CF well doesn’t mean you would be as good in other spots.  Again, Mullins arm alone would hold him back.

It’s like saying if you can be a great left tackle, you can be a great right tackle because the left side is harder. That’s not true. Different footwork, different angles, etc…

You have zero idea how well Mullins would do with those things. 
 

I think it’s fair to say he’s the better CFer but he’s not better by a lot and Cowsers arm makes up for some of that.

Cowser excels on the corners, something we don’t know if Mullins can do.

So yea, it’s fair to say, especially without evidence to the contrary and factoring in Mullins’ poor arm, that Cowser is the best all around defensive OFer on the team.

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Except it’s not. Just because you can handle CF well doesn’t mean you would be as good in other spots.  Again, Mullins arm alone would hold him back.

It’s like saying if you can be a great left tackle, you can be a great right tackle because the left side is harder. That’s not true. Different footwork, different angles, etc…

You have zero idea how well Mullins would do with those things. 
 

I think it’s fair to say he’s the better CFer but he’s not better by a lot and Cowsers arm makes up for some of that.

Cowser excels on the corners, something we don’t know if Mullins can do.

So yea, it’s fair to say, especially without evidence to the contrary and factoring in Mullins’ poor arm, that Cowser is the best all around defensive OFer on the team.

This is just silly.

Cedric Mullins can handle LF.  LOL.  It would be an adjustment period of about a day.

As far as the arm goes, Cowser certainly has a strong arm.  He also has a slow/bad transfer and is wildly inaccurate.

[Frobby]

In CF: 

Mullins (624.1 innings): -1 Rtot, -1 Rdrs, +3 OAA, +0.1 UZR

Cowser (152.0 innings): +3 Rtot, +1 Rdrs, +1 OAA, +0.5 UZR

Cowser tops Mullins in 3 of the 4 metrics, and also in the fourth one if you pro-rate it by innings played.  

So, I’m not going to say Cowser is as good or better than Mullins in CF, but where’s the evidence that he isn’t?   The only real evidence is that when they’re both in the field at the same time, Hyde plays Mullins in CF.   But that may be more of a veteran deference thing, or it may reflect, as @Sports Guysaid, that Cowser’s skill set works better than Mullins’ in a corner spot.  Honestly, I couldn’t see Mullins making the throw from the LF wall at all.   And, throwing left-handed is disadvantageous for a LF on a lot of plays Cowser throws right-handed).  
 

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In CF: 

Mullins (624.1 innings): -1 Rtot, -1 Rdrs, +3 OAA, +0.1 UZR

Cowser (152.0 innings): +3 Rtot, +1 Rdrs, +1 OAA, +0.5 UZR

Cowser tops Mullins in 3 of the 4 metrics, and also in the fourth one if you pro-rate it by innings played.  

So, I’m not going to say Cowser is as good or better than Mullins in CF, but where’s the evidence that he isn’t?   The only real evidence is that when they’re both in the field at the same time, Hyde plays Mullins in CF.   But that may be more of a veteran deference thing, or it may reflect, as @Sports Guysaid, that Cowser’s skill set works better than Mullins’ in a corner spot.  Honestly, I couldn’t see Mullins making the throw from the LF wall at all.   And, throwing left-handed is disadvantageous for a LF on a lot of plays Cowser throws right-handed).  
 

I'd like to see what those numbers would look like for Cowser in 624 innings. Not saying he's not good out there, but he's still barely played ML CF. He's played the equivalent of 17 games out there, which is nothing. 

Edited July 9 by interloper

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'd like to see what those numbers would look like for Cowser in 624 innings. Not saying he's not good out there, but he's still barely played ML CF. He's played the equivalent of 17 games out there, which is nothing. 

He’s only played there a small amount in the majors.  In the minors, he played CF about 75% of the time.   So, it’s not like he’s inexperienced as a CF.   

[Sports Guy]

 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Easier said than done, but if O'Hearn can improve chase rate at 30, it's possible.