Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s not really a good argument and certainly not how Burnes and his agent will see it.

 

It’s a great argument, and all Burnes and his agent will want is to get the best deal they can.  They’re not going to turn down 7/$252 mm if that’s the best deal on the table.  If some team decides he’s worth more than that, he’ll get more, and if they don’t, he won’t, regardless of how Burnes and Boras “see it.”

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s a great argument, and all Burnes and his agent will want is to get the best deal they can.  They’re not going to turn down 7/$252 mm if that’s the best deal on the table.  If some team decides he’s worth more than that, he’ll get more, and if they don’t, he won’t, regardless of how Burnes and Boras “see it.”

lol ok

And of course he won’t turn down his best offer.  But the likely outcome, if he’s healthy and performing at a high level, is a higher AAV but less years and overall money than Cole got.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

lol ok

And of course he won’t turn down his best offer.  But the likely outcome, if he’s healthy and performing at a high level, is a higher AAV but less years and overall money than Cole got.

He will get less years, almost for sure, because he’s two years older than Cole was when he hit free agency.  

I can’t say he won’t get a higher AAV, but for one thing, it depends how many years Burnes gets.  If it’s 6 years or less, he almost certainly gets a higher AAV than Cole.   But if it’s 7 years, I think it’s uncertain.  If it’s 8, I’d say probably not.

Putting aside age, I think Cole had a little better track record than Burnes will have going into FA.  It’s very close though.

Cole: 1195 IP, 127 ERA+, coming off a 20-5, 185 ERA+ season.

Burnes: 828 IP (probably ~910 at end of the year), 132 ERA+, coming off a year where his ERA+ is in the 155 ballpark.  

Of course, there’s always salary inflation to be considered.


 

[Bemorewins]

13 hours ago, Say O! said:

Zack Wheeler got contract extension of 3yr/$126M for $42M AAV.  That’s probably the ceiling for Burnes. 

That’s the comp that I was looking at. The days of pitchers getting 7-10 year deals may be a thing of the past. The market has to correct for the rapidity/frequency/probability of injury. 

Plus there are not going to be as many bidders.

[Malike]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

That’s the comp that I was looking at. The days of pitchers getting 7-10 year deals may be a thing of the past. The market has to correct for the rapidity/frequency/probability of injury. 

Plus there are not going to be as many bidders.

I'd say he'll get 5 years at the very minimum with 6 to 7 quite likely.

[Bemorewins]

12 hours ago, OriolesUpAndDowns said:

Dodgers.  7 years, 250 million

I know the Dodgers are the easy one to say/guess because of the size of their payroll.

But I can’t see it. They already have 3 pitchers (including Ohtani on 100+ million dollar deals). 

Given how smart the Dodgers FO is and given  what is going on with pitching injuries combined with how good they are a developing talent, I don’t think it makes sense for them to go long term with another 30ish starting pitcher.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

That’s the comp that I was looking at. The days of pitchers getting 7-10 year deals may be a thing of the past. The market has to correct for the rapidity/frequency/probability of injury. 

Plus there are not going to be as many bidders.

What you are saying is what should happen. I just doubt it will happen.

 

[Bemorewins]

11 hours ago, baltfan said:

Burnes has been very good, but he has seldom dominated.  He hasn’t pitched 8 innings once.  I know that the days of complete games are over but I would love our true ace to pitch a little deeper occasionally and be a bit more dominant at times.  

He is one of the league leaders in innings pitched and quality starts. His consistency is quite incredible. 

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I know the Dodgers are the easy one to say/guess because of the size of their payroll.

But I can’t see it. They already have 3 pitchers (including Ohtani on 100+ million dollar deals). 

Given how smart the Dodgers FO is and given  what is going on with pitching injuries combined with how good they are a developing talent, I don’t think it makes sense for them to go long term with another 30ish starting pitcher.

I still see them as a player for him. Glasnow breaks every year, Ohtani and Yamamoto are going to need lots of additional rest, they aren't afraid to spend money. I also see the Giants in there as well and the Cubs wouldn't shock me either. I think he'll have enough suitors to get close to what he's looking for.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

That’s the comp that I was looking at. The days of pitchers getting 7-10 year deals may be a thing of the past. The market has to correct for the rapidity/frequency/probability of injury. 

Plus there are not going to be as many bidders.

I think there will be 7-year deals for younger, excellent pitchers with track records of durability, like Burnes.  Wheeler’s 3-year deal doesn’t even begin until next season, when he’s 35 years old.   35-year olds don’t get 7-year deals.   Guys who have brilliant seasons but are inconsistent or injury prone like, say, Blake Snell don’t get 7-year deals.   But guys like Burnes will get them if that’s what they want.  

[Bemorewins]

11 hours ago, RavensNOsGuy said:

He is being saved for the playoffs when we face the Yankees. They were going on and on this morning on the Fan about not pitching him this weekend because we wouldn’t want him to face the Yankees too many times. Had to laugh at that one. He’s your ace. 

Not to sound too disrespectful but the Yankees aren’t that good. I don’t think there is a need to put that much thought into facing them.

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What you are saying is what should happen. I just doubt it will happen.

 

I think that we starting seeing a market correction last offseason with Montgomery/Snell.

[psagawa]

I don't think most of the big spenders will be in the market for a $35-40m/yr starter, even one as good Burnes. Mets need to cut payroll. Yankees will prioritize Soto. Dodgers have a lot of high priced pitching coming back. Phillies are pretty set in their rotation. Red Sox could be players.

[sportsfan8703]

I keep saying it... it's cool that Ruby throws T Shirts out, but we need him to throw some paper out.  

[OriolesMagic83]

My guess is it won't be the O's, even if it's $300 million.