Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

[Roll Tide]

Quote

The Orioles will have a very good chance of signing Burnes mostly due to the plethora of pitching talent (a potential seven former Cy Young Award winners) that will be available this offseason. Burnes will be one of the more attractive options for teams, but the competition and market should allow the Orioles to compete financially. A four-year $120 million deal should be enough to lure him back to the team that will be a contender for the foreseeable future.

WBALs Blair Young likes our chances

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/do-orioles-have-chance-sign-free-agent-pitcher-corbin-burnes/62512129

[SouthRider]

I think it all depends on whether Arizona can make an offer.  If it's competitive I think he goes there.  Otherwise, it depends on how much the O's are willing to spend vs the other teams.  He might take less to stay here, but I heard his home is in Arizona. 

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, SouthRider said:

I think it all depends on whether Arizona can make an offer.  If it's competitive I think he goes there.  Otherwise, it depends on how much the O's are willing to spend vs the other teams.  He might take less to stay here, but I heard his home is in Arizona. 

The Diamondbacks have 125 million in 10 players. Would they really want to have at $155-$165 million in 11 players of a $199 million payroll (their 2023 amount)?
 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/payroll/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total2

Edited 4 hours ago by Roll Tide

[bpilktree67]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

The Diamondbacks have 125 million in 10 players. Would they really want to have at $155-$165 million in 11 players of a $199 million payroll (their 2023 amount)?
 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/payroll/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total2

They could let Suarez and Pederson walk who have team options to free up money or try and move Montgomery and get part of his salary off there books but I do think they will look at adding a less expensive option.  

[waroriole]

9 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

WBALs Blair Young likes our chances

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/do-orioles-have-chance-sign-free-agent-pitcher-corbin-burnes/62512129

Lol this guy is clearly an idiot. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

11 hours ago, Hallas said:

Am I crazy for thinking Burnes isn't going to sniff Cole's deal?  I'm thinking like 7/260-280.  I don't think he's going to sniff Cole's deal.  For starters i dont think hes as good a pitcher as Cole was at the time of his signing.  Also, the Yankees aren't going to be in the bidding so that leaves the Mets, Giants, Nats, Orioles as teams that can afford him.  The Sox could too, but they're on the fringe of contention and might opt to develop more with the Yankees and Orioles solidly ahead of them in division.  Only the Mets from that list really seem like teams that would go over 300m for a pitcher, but they will be pressed for money because of the luxury tax.

I really appreciate what Burnes did this year. But forgive me, unless pitching to contact is back in vogue, he doesn’t miss bats nearly as well as he used to.

And front offices seem to pay attention to such things.

For me, I think the contact he induces is valuable. But it seems like he’s lost a little bit of the feel for the hook, which was his put away pitch.

That should ding his value a bit and would limit the amount I would spend on him. 

[Just Regular]

48 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

They could let Suarez and Pederson walk who have team options to free up money or try and move Montgomery and get part of his salary off there books but I do think they will look at adding a less expensive option.  

They can use a Ryan to backfill Christian Walker.    I think Suarez and Pederson were both so great helping them score near 900 runs they stay.

I'm enthusiastic once again about Montgomery after the owner's sharp comments.    IRL that is a heavy lift for a GM to put a band-aid on the Club-Player relationship.     It hit me like kind of a Hail Mary to try and shun a guy coming off a bad season who has a high dollar 1-year player option.    I think Montgomery is still good at baseball, and that he had understandable hangover from heroic 2023 work amplified by the Boras awkwardness last winter.

The odd circumstance makes Montgomery a SP on a 1-year contract who is much better than the typical caliber of pitcher on that term.    If that doesn't scream Mike Elias priority for the 2025 Orioles, I don't know what does.     An early look at the 2026 UFA SP on Spotrac - no 2025 stars on their walk year like '24 Burnes.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/_/year/2026/position/sp/type/ufa/sort/contract_value

Elias my guess is will put in an offer that somebody like Brendan Fournie calculates has a low chance of acceptance, and Roch will write about the Orioles making their biggest contract offer in history after Burnes signs for much more with someone else.

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

20 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

The Dodgers are already over the the $241 million cap at $250 million and they have a ton of guys to pay. It’s not impossible but putting them at 305 million with guys like Lux, May, Gonsolin, Graterol, Phillips, Vesia, and Kopech (who they may not keep). The guys mentioned are all arb 2 or 3 that aren’t included in the number. I just don’t see it 

Good point on the cap issues.  

[Hallas]

52 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

I really appreciate what Burnes did this year. But forgive me, unless pitching to contact is back in vogue, he doesn’t miss bats nearly as well as he used to.

And front offices seem to pay attention to such things.

For me, I think the contact he induces is valuable. But it seems like he’s lost a little bit of the feel for the hook, which was his put away pitch.

That should ding his value a bit and would limit the amount I would spend on him. 

His whiff rate improved from 2023 despite his K rate going down.  I wouldn't be super worried about that.  I don't think his 95-97th percentile whiff rate from 2021-2022 is coming back but we can probably count on his current whiff rate going forward.