Trading for Tarik Skubal

[Bemorewins]

33 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

No, I want him but I’m not going to be naive and send a package not including his next pitch could be his last. His value is basically Bradish with one more elbow reconstruction. 

But that's just it. He is a replacement for Bradish. If we had Bradish we wouldn't need him. But now (and for most of next year) we don't.

Btw, I'm not sure how close you have looked at Skubal. Skubal is actually better than Bradish (not taking anything away from Bradish). Look at Skubal's Ks per 9, his WHIP, and the fact that he is left handed. Forget the sub 2.50 ERA in the first half. Skubal is as good and could be argued even a little better than Burnes.

I like our odds against any opponent (including the Phillies), with the offense that we have (minus the last week), if we can pair Skubal with Burnes sliding Grayson to #3 this season. And next season, in the event of a Burnes departure, Skubal slots into the #1 spot in our rotation while we get to keep the same/similar offense.

[LGOrioles]

Skubal’s clearly better than Fedde but I would still be 100% happy with Fedde. His ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, and pitch bot ERA are all under 4. He’s been really good this year and it hasn’t been a fluke whatsoever in the sense of every metric pointing to him being a good pitcher. He’s also signed pretty cheap next year. 

He’s a big upgrade on Kremer as the number 3 and has been objectively better this year than any of the Orioles current SP other than Burnes. Skubal or Crochet would be the dream acquisitions but other than that, I would happily take Fedde/Kikuchi/Scherzer in that second tier. 

Edited July 17 by LGOrioles

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Skubal’s clearly better than Fedde but I would still be 100% happy with Fedde. His ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, and pitch bot ERA are all under 4. He’s been really good this year and it hasn’t been a fluke whatsoever in the sense of every metric pointing to him being a good pitcher. He’s also signed pretty cheap next year. 

He’s a big upgrade on Kremer as the number 3 and has been objectively better this year than any of the Orioles current SP other than Burnes. Skubal or Crochet would be the dream acquisitions but other than that, I would happily take Fedde/Kikuchi/Scherzer in that second tier. 

I’m guessing that you could get Fedde and 2 other relievers for less than it will cost to get Skubal.

[Just Regular]

15 hours ago, HowAboutThat said:

Poor Kyle Stowers, he goes to sleep every night not knowing what uniform he’ll wear tomorrow.

I imagine it might be like he goes to sleep every night praying he'll wear some other uniform tomorrow so he can start pulling the ~$700k minimum wage every week, and get on with his career before his best years get entirely siloed to pre-Arb.    It might already be too late.

[CaptainRedbeard]

If the Orioles can get Skubal without trading one of Holliday, Mayo or Basallo, they should be all over that. But even if the offer to the Tigers is Kjerstad or Cowser + whatever 4 prospects the Tigers think are #5, 6, 7, 8 in the system, I think the Tigers turn that down.

And in any case, Kjerstad (or Cowser) may be better than the headliner Dodgers’ top prospect they can offer, but the Dodgers have many more 50 FV guys that are better than those right behind Kjerstad in the Orioles’ system and they could probably overall beat the Orioles’ package. 

It is going to require Holliday, Mayo or Basallo. I’d rather trade keep them, trade from the middle of the farm system for 1-2 rental or 1.5yr SPs, and spend some money this offseason to keep Burnes and/or add other FA SPs. But if the Orioles are entertaining trading one of the top 3, I think this is the rationale:

Holliday - To trade him, they would have to really believe in Mayo’s defense at 3B (and Westburg’s defense at 2B). I don’t buy that they would overreact to his rough 2 week MLB stint, but I do think that could have raised concerns about his contact rate, which was previously a bit glossed over by national prospect evaluations. Still, I think the Orioles would have to be much lower on him than he’s generally viewed outside the organization to trade him.

Mayo - Hard to see any flaws in Mayo as a hitter. But if he is strictly a 1B/DH with the Orioles, then he’s still going to be very valuable, but probably not so valuable that he’s worth more than 2.5 years of Skubal. You’re still giving a lot, but you’re getting a lot back. And even if the Orioles believe in him at 3B, they still have Gunnar, Westburg, Holliday. So while I think Mayo will have opportunity to contribute as a part time 3B as the 4th infielder (if the Orioles consider his defense good enough there), the only way Mayo could be a full time 3B is if Holliday moves to CF, which is a question mark. And the fact they haven’t tried Mayo at all in RF may indicate that they don’t think he’ll have the speed to play it, despite his arm. All things considered, I think Mayo is the guy on the table. 

Basallo - Similar to Mayo, if you think he’s only going to be a 1B/DH with the Orioles, then he could still be very valuable but worth giving up for Skubal. But his defensive upside with the Orioles is much higher than Mayo’s. At a minimum, he could be a part time catcher co-existing with Adley. And Adley is only under control for 3 more years after this one. Plus, with his great arm and the automated ball/strike system coming to MLB in some capacity, I’m bullish on his athleticism translating into being able to improve enough on blocking balls to stick at C, moreso than I am bullish on Mayo at 3B (and I’m not down on Mayo at 3B either). It comes down to Basallo as a C being worth more than Mayo as a 3B, particularly given how the Orioles are constructed with Gunnar/Westburg/Holliday. 

[LGOrioles]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m guessing that you could get Fedde and 2 other relievers for less than it will cost to get Skubal.

I think I would take both Fedde and Kikuchi over Skubal, considering both the prospect cost and the fact they really could use 2 starters. Suarez has been great overall but he’s averaging 5 IP/start and his peripherals have been rapidly trending in the wrong direction. 

[Just Regular]

I think Holliday, Mayo and Basallo are all far enough ahead of other Orioles bats options it would be a big downgrade to move one.

The Bedard trade is familiar, and I generally agree with the then take Adam Jones alone would have been a bad deal.

BP's midseason update today did put Dodgers #30 and #32 in their overall rankings, with Kjerstad and Cowser now graduated so off the radar for compare/contrast purposes.     Big 3 Orioles all top 15, and of course the talent curve steepens the closer to the top you get.

Fisher's job if he loves one is the same as Getz's - would he add to the Skubal or Crochet principal?    I do think with secondary rentals those GM's could put Elias to a tougher decision whether to move one, if they prioritized talent.

My gut guess is Skubal's value if he moves gets allocated in large part to the Javier Baez poison pill.     Skubal and Baez for a PTBNL...who says no?

[toughbuff1]

Basallo, Stowers, Norby, Bradfield, McDermott

[Ripken]

I'd give up JH+ but not Mayo or Basallo.  I'm not worried about 30-something plate appearances but I do wonder about his defensive value and power output going forward.  He could be an on-base machine, which we really need, but we gotta give up something.  The extra 2 years of Skubal is enough for me to do this.  That, with another good pen arm, gives us a shot in the playoffs and, if we sign a good FA starter this offseason, has us ready for 2025, too.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

No, I want him but I’m not going to be naive and send a package not including his next pitch could be his last. His value is basically Bradish with one more elbow reconstruction. 

No …. You are saying you’re not interested. You’d love to have him but aren’t wiling to give up what it will it take to get him. So you’d be happy with this years version of Flaherty and Fujinami? So let’s what our leftovers are going to net.

 

If you are talking Skubal or Skenes you’re not getting them without one of Holliday, Basallo, or Mayo. Crochet probably starts with one of the #4 guys…  Risk yet …but taking for granted a window is a bad idea. We have a real shot this year … Burnes, Skubal/Skenes/Crochet, and Grayson is a tough 1-3 to beat. You need one and a reliever that is shitdown maybe 2 and you’re a serious WS contender. It’s time to act IMO. 
 

Plus we need to clear some of the pending Rule 5 issues. 

 

 

 

 

[bpilktree67]

5 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

IMO - The Rangers and Diamondbacks were “lucky” underdogs who overcame the odds last season.

When you amass this much talent and undertake the steps it took to get here (extreme tanking which is now not allowed in baseball), the goal shouldn’t be to overcome the odds as an underdog in one October. IMO the goal should be a lot higher than that.

Another Skubal type pitcher keeps the odds in our favor regardless of opponent. The Yankees will make a move. And right now (when healthy) the Phillies are better/more talented.

To be honest I struggle to find an opponent where we will go into a series with the better pitching matchups (beyond Burnes). 

Again, when you have the type of Major League talent and Minor League assets that we posses, the goal shouldn’t be to overcome the odds as an underdog. We should be trying to do what we can to tilt the odds in our favor. This may be our only season with Burnes, this this may be our best team.

It’s not a sustainable strategy to acquire one year rentals (even as good as Burnes) most seasons. IMO you can’t continue to thrive doing 6 (years) for a (year) swaps.

You surely can’t survive giving up all the capital in the farm for 1 pitcher with arm issues in the past as well and has never thrown more then 150 innings.  If he gets injured again then you can just start the rebuild if you traded all your capital to get him.   
 

If you trade for someone like Zach Efflin who I think gets dealt as his contract was backloaded and don’t see the Rays paying him 18 million next season.  You have a rotation of Burnes, GRod, Efflin, and Kremer which is as good as any other team in AL except the Mariners but they can’t score to help there great pitching.  We will make a move it just doesn’t have to be a home run just a solid number 3 starter.  Then you look for a starter in off season once you figure out what you want to spend.  

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

You surely can’t survive giving up all the capital in the farm for 1 pitcher with arm issues in the past as well and has never thrown more then 150 innings.  If he gets injured again then you can just start the rebuild if you traded all your capital to get him.   
 

If you trade for someone like Zach Efflin who I think gets dealt as his contract was backloaded and don’t see the Rays paying him 18 million next season.  You have a rotation of Burnes, GRod, Efflin, and Kremer which is as good as any other team in AL except the Mariners but they can’t score to help there great pitching.  We will make a move it just doesn’t have to be a home run just a solid number 3 starter.  Then you look for a starter in off season once you figure out what you want to spend.  

This is exactly where I’ve been at, but as we get closer the deadline I want a WS. Burnes in Skubal going games 1 and 2 would be huge. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

I think Holliday, Mayo and Basallo are all far enough ahead of other Orioles bats options it would be a big downgrade to move one.

The Bedard trade is familiar, and I generally agree with the then take Adam Jones alone would have been a bad deal.

BP's midseason update today did put Dodgers #30 and #32 in their overall rankings, with Kjerstad and Cowser now graduated so off the radar for compare/contrast purposes.     Big 3 Orioles all top 15, and of course the talent curve steepens the closer to the top you get.

Fisher's job if he loves one is the same as Getz's - would he add to the Skubal or Crochet principal?    I do think with secondary rentals those GM's could put Elias to a tougher decision whether to move one, if they prioritized talent.

My gut guess is Skubal's value if he moves gets allocated in large part to the Javier Baez poison pill.     Skubal and Baez for a PTBNL...who says no?

Skubal's value isn't going to get taken away by Baez.  Detroit isn't a small market and had a payroll over 200 million recently.  I doubt they are hobbled by the Baez contact.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Skubal's value isn't going to get taken away by Baez.  Detroit isn't a small market and had a payroll over 200 million recently.  I doubt they are hobbled by the Baez contact.

It won’t be for a PTBNL but I bet you wouldn’t have to give up any of the big  3 to get Skubal if you took on that horrendous contract.

[Rbiggs2525]

I think people glossing over major mechanical issues for Skubal are being naive. His elbow has about as much pressure on it pitch to pitch as any pitcher in baseball. It’s also what makes him great. It’s what drives the high velocity and movement of his pitches. When his front leg hits the ground his arm is not anywhere near a traditional position. Just like someone pointed out last night that Crochet throws dangerously too much across his body. These guys have flaws that cannot be ignored.