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DocJJ

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

Posted
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1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

This is the big value-add that FG provides IMO.  It's a good view of the general landscape.

That is a quasi-atated goal (increasing competition in the org).  The scales of a Blind SigBot at various trade deadlines will be interesting to watch.

You and @Just Regular are starting to speak the same language.

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You and @Just Regular are starting to speak the same language.

I get the impression @btdart20is actually in financial services, whereas I just watch Friedman lead a wave of execs treating ballplayers like mortgage derivatives.

It might have been especially cheeky by Elias to draft Gunnar's cost efficient replacement with the asset he earned the organization by his brilliant play.

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btdart20 Hangout Veteran Council

btdart20

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28 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I get the impression @btdart20is actually in financial services, whereas I just watch Friedman lead a wave of execs treating ballplayers like mortgage derivatives.

It might have been especially cheeky by Elias to draft Gunnar's cost efficient replacement with the asset he earned the organization by his brilliant play.

LOL "risk averse" doesn't mean what the vast majority thinks it means.  

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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We're not quite as stacked as we used to be. My recollection is Norby and Stowers have been in the MLB top 100 at times even though they aren't now. The question is what happens with guys who are on the rise and inevitably replacing other graduates. Seems like Bradfield and Beavers should be fringe top 100 guys. I think Etzel should be a top 100 guy right now.

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

Posted
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18 hours ago, Frobby said:

On the depth issue, Fangraphs lists every player in every org they rate at 35+ or higher.  The O’s have 45 such prospects.  Only 6 teams have more, with 49 being the top.  There are numerous teams in the 20’s and low 30’s.  So by their reckoning, we are very deep.  Will all those guys be impact players?  Of course not.  But we have more guys with a shot at a major league career than most teams, in addition to great quality at the top.  

This is actually a really good way to look at it, after you look at studs.

Some % will hit big. Some % will be ok MLers and the rest will flame out. Having more of these guys than other systems is a good sign, even though I think it's apparent to most of us that this system isn't pumping out massive results across all levels right now.

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CaptainRedbeard All-Star

CaptainRedbeard

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Fangraphs also does farm system rankings, which are now up to date pre-draft, based on the FV grades and a dollar value assigned to the FV tiers. It’s also a handy table to compare what systems are strong in the middle of the pack vs top heavy. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings

The Orioles are still #1, but that is carried in large part by the huge value assigned to Holliday as a 70 FV hitter. However, if they graduated Holliday, they’d still be about tied with Boston as #4. 

I haven’t done the math, but just looking at that table - if you took out every team’s top 4 prospects, the Orioles would fall behind some systems but still be near the top. They don’t have a large number of 50/45+/45 FV guys, which I think prompts this sentiment that the system is weaker, but it’s still strong in 40+/40/35+.

And if you look at the actual values assigned for the FV tiers, IMO the 50/45+/45 tiers (ie, back end and borderline top 100 prospects) tend to be overvalued in public perception relative to what the numbers bear out. The really elite 70/65/60/55 prospects have a ton of value, and then beyond that having a bulk of prospects matters more.

It’s true that the Orioles’ best prospects are already at the MLB or AAA level, with only Basallo in AA, so they’re going to have a lot of graduations in the near future. But the best prospects tend to be those that have already dominated the low minors, so I don’t think the Orioles are super unusual this way.

Basically, the farm is not as dominant as it once was, but they have a long way to go before they’re even just middle of the pack. 

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