Fangraphs top 50 trade value list 2024

[Frobby]

Fangraphs has started its countdown of the 50 players they think have the most trade value in MLB.  Today they listed Nos. 41-50, and Grayson Rodriguez came in at no. 46:

“Let’s bring back special pitching correspondent Count von Count for this one. Five! Five years of cost-controlled pitching! Ah ha ha! That’s the elevator pitch for Rodriguez; he’s pretty similar to the guys behind him on the list, only you get him for more years. He has some Gore to him – he pairs a big fastball with multiple wipeout secondary pitches. He also has some Greene to him – he’s using that fastball a little bit less despite its enviable velocity because his other pitches are just better. He doesn’t quite have Bibee’s command, but he’s still above average there.

“If there’s one thing to be worried about in his profile, it’s that he’s had a couple of non-elbow-related IL stints in the past three years. Rodriguez was out for months with a lat strain in 2022, then missed a few turns in the rotation this year with shoulder inflammation. Even as TJ has become commonplace, shoulder injuries remain scary and unpredictable, and every 30-year-old knows how backs can act up on you.

“I think that risk is manageable, because you’re getting plenty of upside. If Rodriguez never improves from here, he can still be a playoff team’s third option. His changeup is hellacious, and on any given day, one of his two breaking balls is often cooking; you can dream on improvement very easily. I can imagine a world where everything clicks and he’s suddenly a 2.75-3.25 ERA guy instead of 3.50-4.00, which is where we’re projecting him. High floor and achievable ceiling? Sounds good to me.”

 

Edited July 23 by Frobby

[banks703]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fsngraphs has started its countdown of the 50 players they think have the most trade value in MLB.  Today they listed Nos. 41-50, and Grayson Rodriguez came in at no. 46:

“Let’s bring back special pitching correspondent Count von Count for this one. Five! Five years of cost-controlled pitching! Ah ha ha! That’s the elevator pitch for Rodriguez; he’s pretty similar to the guys behind him on the list, only you get him for more years. He has some Gore to him – he pairs a big fastball with multiple wipeout secondary pitches. He also has some Greene to him – he’s using that fastball a little bit less despite its enviable velocity because his other pitches are just better. He doesn’t quite have Bibee’s command, but he’s still above average there.

“If there’s one thing to be worried about in his profile, it’s that he’s had a couple of non-elbow-related IL stints in the past three years. Rodriguez was out for months with a lat strain in 2022, then missed a few turns in the rotation this year with shoulder inflammation. Even as TJ has become commonplace, shoulder injuries remain scary and unpredictable, and every 30-year-old knows how backs can act up on you.

“I think that risk is manageable, because you’re getting plenty of upside. If Rodriguez never improves from here, he can still be a playoff team’s third option. His changeup is hellacious, and on any given day, one of his two breaking balls is often cooking; you can dream on improvement very easily. I can imagine a world where everything clicks and he’s suddenly a 2.75-3.25 ERA guy instead of 3.50-4.00, which is where we’re projecting him. High floor and achievable ceiling? Sounds good to me.”

 

It’s so easy for national media to overlook the fact that he’s what, 30 starts into his career.

His floor is a third starter on a playoff team. If he goes to that next level he’s one of the 15 best pitchers in baseball (and I’m not convinced that he isn’t on the cusp of that as it is).

If he figures out how to lower the pitch count, he’s going to be scary good. 

[Frobby]

I wonder how many players we’ll have on the list?  Adley and Gunnar obviously.  

I just saw there was an Honorable Mentions list that had a Youths category that includes Samuel Basallo, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz among its 15 players.  Jackson Holliday’s absence from that list tells me he’s somewhere in the top 50, and I’d bet Jordan Westburg is too.  

[Just Regular]

Interesting comment on the "curse" of last year's top 10...how high will our guys go?     I think only Skenes stands out as a top rival to Gunnar for #1 overall.

Ben mentioned it, but it is still shocking how underwhelming the top trade value players from last season has been.
Among the top 5 pitchers last year (Strider, McClanahan, Webb, Alcantara, Pérez), Webb is the only player who threw more than 10 innings in 2024. 
Among the top 5 hitters (Acuña Jr., Franco, Julio, Carroll, and Rutschman), Rutschman is the only one who has not been significantly disappointing.

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I wonder how many players we’ll have on the list?  Adley and Gunnar obviously.  

I just saw there was an Honorable Mentions list that had a Youths category that includes Samuel Basallo, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz among its 15 players.  Jackson Holliday’s absence from that list tells me he’s somewhere in the top 50, and I’d bet Jordan Westburg is too.  

Mayo was also an honorable mention. I’d say it’s definitely Gunnar, Adley, Westburg and Holliday on the list to go.

Gunnar and Adley may be #1 and #2 considering last year was Acuña, Franco, Julio, Carroll, Adley, De La Cruz and Gunnar from 1-7.

[Brooks The Great]

3 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Mayo was also an honorable mention. I’d say it’s definitely Gunnar, Adley, Westburg and Holliday on the list to go.

Gunnar and Adley may be #1 and #2 considering last year was Acuña, Franco, Julio, Carroll, Adley, De La Cruz and Gunnar from 1-7.

I think it has to be Gunnar and Witt as the top 2 hitters in some order. Witt is incredible.

The Orioles' two options to pick from at #1 overall and then picking Gunnar, Stowers, Ortiz later in the 2019 draft is bonkers value.

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Mayo was also an honorable mention. I’d say it’s definitely Gunnar, Adley, Westburg and Holliday on the list to go.

Gunnar and Adley may be #1 and #2 considering last year was Acuña, Franco, Julio, Carroll, Adley, De La Cruz and Gunnar from 1-7.

Witt will be #1 I think because of the long term contract, though maybe Gunnar. 

[Yossarian]

Would it be a stretch to see Santander on the list?

[Brian88]

3 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Would it be a stretch to see Santander on the list?

Yes

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Mayo was also an honorable mention. I’d say it’s definitely Gunnar, Adley, Westburg and Holliday on the list to go.

Gunnar and Adley may be #1 and #2 considering last year was Acuña, Franco, Julio, Carroll, Adley, De La Cruz and Gunnar from 1-7.

Oops, meant to list Mayo there.  I’m guessing Adley will drop a little, just because he has one less year of team control than he did last year and his level of performance isn’t significantly better than last year.   Gunnar should be right near the top.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, Yossarian said:

Would it be a stretch to see Santander on the list?

Would you expect to see Corbin Burnes on this list?

No, because he's only got a few months of team control left.

Burnes has more trade value than Santander does.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you expect to see Corbin Burnes on this list?

No, because he's only got a few months of team control left.

Burnes has more trade value than Santander does.

Burnes and Soto got honorable mentions in a category of their own.   

[Sports Guy]

10 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Interesting comment on the "curse" of last year's top 10...how high will our guys go?     I think only Skenes stands out as a top rival to Gunnar for #1 overall.

Ben mentioned it, but it is still shocking how underwhelming the top trade value players from last season has been.
Among the top 5 pitchers last year (Strider, McClanahan, Webb, Alcantara, Pérez), Webb is the only player who threw more than 10 innings in 2024. 
Among the top 5 hitters (Acuña Jr., Franco, Julio, Carroll, and Rutschman), Rutschman is the only one who has not been significantly disappointing.

Witt is signed..you could argue that alone gives him more value than Gunnar in a trade.

[CaptainRedbeard]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Oops, meant to list Mayo there.  I’m guessing Adley will drop a little, just because he has one less year of team control than he did last year and his level of performance isn’t significantly better than last year.   Gunnar should be right near the top.  

Adley’s trade value has definitely gone down since he’s lost the additional year of control, but relative to the others who were previously above him he’s lost much less value. 

As others said, Witt will probably be ahead of Adley, but I think #2 below Gunnar. I’m curious to see how they account for Witt’s contract. Overall it’s still better than if the Royals hadn’t signed him to it, but IIRC it does give him a huge amount of guaranteed money in opt out/player options while only buying out 2-3 years of free agency. It’s certainly more player friendly than other long term mega deals. 

[Frobby]

Holliday comes in at no. 37:

”He’s not as universally loved as most top prospects are because his offensive production is shaped weirdly. It’s very walk-and-strikeout heavy, with less power than you’d hope for. I expect that to come around, because his frame and swing suggest room for improvement, but his brief major league stint certainly didn’t quiet questions about his approach. For a top prospect, there’s a ton of risk here. I think ZiPS is right, of course, and he’ll be an All-Star at peak, but I would not be falling all over myself to trade for him right at this moment.”

Some players ranked ahead of him include Wyatt Langford, James Wood and CJ Abrams.  Anthony Volpe right behind him.