AL playoff picture

[Matty2D]

I think if they are locked into the #4 after tomorrow, I wouldn't bet on Suarez going deep. Maybe he opens the game for two innings to stay fresh. He is very likely the long man along with Cade potentially vs. the Tigers so no sense pitching him 5 innings Saturday, he wouldn't be able to go until game 3. Everyone should be rested and ready to go for the wild card series, we should be able to go in there full strength. I am just saying by resting guys and pitching some of our weaker guys in a meaningless game for us could prove beneficial to us since our opponents would have to burn their guys.

[LookitsPuck]

4 hours ago, waroriole said:

Skubal is a tough matchup but that Tigers offense is Seattle level weak. You gotta beat tough pitchers. We have the bats to do it. Detroit doesn’t worry me at all. 

Think we have different definitions of weak. They average 4.2 R/G, but give up a hair under 4. The O’s? Only average about a half a run more (4.8), but give up 4.3.

Their pitching has been excellent the last 2 months. 3.02 ERA in August and a 2.56 ERA in September.

While their offense isn’t a world beater, with that kind of pitching it doesn’t matter.

[LookitsPuck]

46 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

Some of these guys haven't had a day off in weeks, if not months. Gunnar better not play every game this weekend, for example.

They’ve had 4 off days this month. Hell, they just had one on Monday.

[waroriole]

43 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Think we have different definitions of weak. They average 4.2 R/G, but give up a hair under 4. The O’s? Only average about a half a run more (4.8), but give up 4.3.

Their pitching has been excellent the last 2 months. 3.02 ERA in August and a 2.56 ERA in September.

While their offense isn’t a world beater, with that kind of pitching it doesn’t matter.

We’re talking about their offense, not their pitching. They have the fewest runs scored of all playoff teams. The next closest is Cleveland, who still has scored 34 more runs. They also have the worst run differential of any playoff team. That’s who I wanna face. 

[Fiver6565]

20 minutes ago, waroriole said:

We’re talking about their offense, not their pitching. They have the fewest runs scored of all playoff teams. The next closest is Cleveland, who still has scored 34 more runs. They also have the worst run differential of any playoff team. That’s who I wanna face. 

The numbers you are quoting, though, simply do not reflect who the Tigers are right now.  They were pretty bad the first half of the season, and those numbers reflect that.  They aren't that team anymore.  Their offense isn't awesome but its good enough given their pitching.

[LookitsPuck]

42 minutes ago, waroriole said:

We’re talking about their offense, not their pitching. They have the fewest runs scored of all playoff teams. The next closest is Cleveland, who still has scored 34 more runs. They also have the worst run differential of any playoff team. That’s who I wanna face. 

Both of them are important to consider here. They could have a mediocre offense every single game of the season, but if the pitching is elite (and it is!), it'll carry them. 

We have 6 games against the Tigers this year. And yes, most of them were without the cadre of regulars. But here are the offensive numbers against them:

.211/.282/.392 - .674 OPS

They scored 20 runs in 6 games against them. Barely scraping 3 R/G. And a good portion of them coming in *1* game. 

Out of the WC potentials the O's could face, here are their R/G:

• Royals: 29 in 6 games = 4.8 R/G
• Twins: 22 in 3 = 7.3 R/G
• Mariners: 27 in 6 = 4.5 R/G
• Tigers: 20 in 6 = 3.3 R/G

Out of all the playoff teams, the best RA/G are the Mariners (3.75), Guardians (3.85), and Tigers (4.96).

For the playoffs, you want to look at who you're facing on the bump. Which team scares you the most? Because if you can't hit against the team, it doesn't matter what the opposing offense is.  Also you'll want to consider the best fielding teams, too.  

Seems to me you'd want to face the team you matchup best against *and* who has the worst defense and worst pitching, because presumably your 3 starters (Burnes, Eflin, Kremer) should be able to hold teams in check. 

Edited 5 hours ago by LookitsPuck

[LookitsPuck]

12 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

The numbers you are quoting, though, simply do not reflect who the Tigers are right now.  They were pretty bad the first half of the season, and those numbers reflect that.  They aren't that team anymore.  Their offense isn't awesome but its good enough given their pitching.

And their defense is very good.

To put things in perspective, the Tigers collective dWAR is +0.5. The Orioles is -2.8. Minnesota -4.1, Yankees -0.3, Houston -0.1, Seattle +2.0, Royals at +2.5.

The Royals really standout as most of that value is driven by Fermin (catcher) and Witt. 

But I think my point is that the Tigers have excellent pitching (starting pitching and bullpen) as well as excellent defense. And they're not putrid with the bats. 

I would say the one saving grace about the Tigers is they don't run much. 

[ledzepp8]

57 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

The numbers you are quoting, though, simply do not reflect who the Tigers are right now.  They were pretty bad the first half of the season, and those numbers reflect that.  They aren't that team anymore.  Their offense isn't awesome but its good enough given their pitching.

Their season ops is 686. Their ops got that 28 days is 681. Their ops in August and September is 713 and 686. First half ops was 687. Second half ops has been 685. Runs per in the first half was 4.25. Second half had been 4.2. 
 

Their pitching has improved. Their offense isn’t why they’re winning. 

[Fiver6565]

5 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

Their season ops is 686. Their ops got that 28 days is 681. Their ops in August and September is 713 and 686. First half ops was 687. Second half ops has been 685. Runs per in the first half was 4.25. Second half had been 4.2. 
 

Their pitching has improved. Their offense isn’t why they’re winning. 

Fair enough.  I've been watching a ton of their games, and I'm telling you we want no part of them, statistics or not.  At least not vs the other alternatives battling for the 5.

[ChuckS]

55 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

And their defense is very good.

To put things in perspective, the Tigers collective dWAR is +0.5. The Orioles is -2.8. Minnesota -4.1, Yankees -0.3, Houston -0.1, Seattle +2.0, Royals at +2.5.

The Royals really standout as most of that value is driven by Fermin (catcher) and Witt. 

But I think my point is that the Tigers have excellent pitching (starting pitching and bullpen) as well as excellent defense. And they're not putrid with the bats. 

I would say the one saving grace about the Tigers is they don't run much. 

Parker Meadows has transformed their defense, moving Riley Greene and other capable defenders to the corners.  Their outfielders as a whole are pretty underrated on both sides of the ball. 

[SilentJames]

12 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

Their season ops is 686. Their ops got that 28 days is 681. Their ops in August and September is 713 and 686. First half ops was 687. Second half ops has been 685. Runs per in the first half was 4.25. Second half had been 4.2. 
 

Their pitching has improved. Their offense isn’t why they’re winning. 

This - their pitching has been head-scratchingly effective considering that more than a couple of their AAA callups had ERAs north of 5 in the minors but suddenly are coming on sub 3. 

The Tigers have been riding a wave of just every decision going their way, its not luck per se - but they have had guys executing in a way that no one really saw coming. They have a ton of momentum but that stuff can stop real quick. 

The Orioles were a circus catch and a robbed homer away from sweeping that series against them in Baltimore lets play them three more times and see what happens.

[Wavetrapper]

Rays ahead of Tigers 3-0 in 5th

KC tied with Wash 4-4 in 5th 

[eddie83]

56 minutes ago, Wavetrapper said:

Rays ahead of Tigers 3-0 in 5th

KC tied with Wash 4-4 in 5th 

Adam Frazier pinch hit 2 RBI single in top 9th. KC up 6-4.  

[LookitsPuck]

Tigers now only down 3-2, but bottle of the 8th and they have runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out w/ Colt Keith up.

Edited 3 hours ago by LookitsPuck

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Adam Frazier pinch hit 2 RBI single in top 9th. KC up 6-4.  

Death, Taxes, and Adam Frazier clutch hits.