O's acquire LHP Trevor Rogers from Marlins

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

I didn't peg you for the full blown sky is falling posts. "Nightmare scenario"? Really? 

The nightmare scenario was losing Bradish and Felix and Means and Wells. Elias is patching together a rotation for the rest of this year AND 2025. And he's done it without using any of the top prospects or even Kjerstad. 

Let me be clear, the sky is not falling nor did it fall when we lost those players. But I will say these kind of marginal moves are starting to pile up and reveal something about Elias and the front office.

You don't make a serious of marginal moves with a team like this, especially not when you did the same exact thing last year.

[Tryptamine]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The Yankees got Leiter Jr for peanuts. If Scott is going to cost Kjerstad, I guess we're rolling with Seranthony. 

People keep saying this, but I don't think that's true. Firstly, Leiter will be 34 on opening day next year. Secondly, Jack Neely can step into the Cub pen immediately(2.56 FIP 2.81 ERA 13.61 K/9 between AA/AAA this year). Lastly, and the part that is most exciting to me, is that Ben Cowles looks like he has made a major adjustment cutting his K% by almost 10% this year down to 17.7% all while putting up a 141 wRC+ in AA. He is 24 so age isn't on his side, but if the K% adjustment is legit, he's a major leaguer. 

 

[1fingerwillie]

9 minutes ago, Malike said:

Wait, I don't think Tony said that Stowers would be ahead of Holliday, Basallo or Mayo. You surely read that wrong. 

Stowers is not a top 3 prospect. He is not a top 10 prospect.

[Can_of_corn]

This is classic Elias low risk move.

He traded from surplus for someone without an attached long term commitment.

It's a sensible move.

Just like the other ones.

I'm not sold on it being the type of move that gets a team a ring and I question how tenable this strategy is long term.

[terpoh]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

We don't need "depth insurance" right now. We need difference makers to help push us over the top.

This trade is embarrassingly bad IMO. I'm literally in disbelief that Elias would do this again.

Disagree. Norby and Stowers both had zero future here. Zero. Maybe you could argue that they should've brought more back. But the market is the market. Do you think Elias didnt shop them around, and just said F it, lets go get Trevor Rogers? We just improved our team with two guys that will not have played a role here. 

Burnes, Grayson, Eflin, Rogers, Kremer 

vs

Burnes, Grayson, Kremer, Suarez, Povich

I know which one I am choosing. 

[interloper]

It's interesting how much the depth changes with this one trade. 

With Holliday not ready, we're seeing Vavra. And if Kjerstad struggles, we don't have the obvious Stowers move available. 

So that's a pretty sizeable ML depth hit. 

[SteveA]

12 minutes ago, 1fingerwillie said:

Good trade IMO.

1) Current team is better than it was yesterday

2) 2025 starting rotation now has 3 solid starters

3) 2 years of control

4) Last seven games 3.47 era

5) Stowers was never going to be here after 6pm

6) Norby (who I hoped we would keep) would never be more than a bench player after this season

7) Either Mayo or Holliday is currently on the way to Baltimore

Re #7:   Are they driving Terrin Vavra, who is apparently being added to the roster to replace Norby?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Yardball85 said:

He didn't really pitch in 2023 (4 games). He was rough in 2022 and has been pretty meh this year though. 

His peripherals in 2022 weren’t too bad though.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

You disappointed me last night in the 9th inning.   Brown was talking about it being Geddy Lee's birthday and the anniversarey of Neal Peart joining Rush and going on and on about how great Rush was.   I was so sure you were going to post something to the game thread that I posted "I agree with the post that Moose is about to make".   But you let me down.

Rush fans are the Swifties of the prog rock world.

[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Let me be clear, the sky is not falling nor did it fall when we lost those players. But I will say these kind of marginal moves are starting to pile up and reveal something about Elias and the front office.

You don't make a serious of marginal moves with a team like this, especially not when you did the same exact thing last year.

Maybe Elias only made this trade because he read the @Can_of_cornpost about how real championship contenders have good SP5 options.

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

Why has Rogers, who has had more than 1k per 1IP over his career, only had 85 K in 105.1 IP this year?  Seems like a significant drop-off.  Are the Marlins FO notorious for not being able to develop pitchers?  Bad year?  Drop in stuff?  His statcast page is pretty gnarly. He was filthy in 2021, Solid in 2022, Meh in 2022, and OK in 2023.  I wonder what they see. 

Some major issues with Rogers:

• Highest hard hit percentage of his career this year
• Not a single pitch with a positive Run Value
• Fastball velocity down this year
• Strikeout rate down this year

I don't know, he reminds me of Joe Saunders in a way. Nothing very exciting. Backend guy. I think if your expectations are that he's better than Irvin, Povich, and *maybe* Suarez, you should be happy. If your expectations are that he's anything more than that, I think you're going to be disappointed. 

I had Rogers as bottom tier. Think his main selling point was controllability, but that was also the argument for Irvin and, well, they have very similar statcast pages i.e. uninspiring. Although, admittedly, I was higher on Irvin at the time of the trade and Irvin cost significantly less. 

[Spy Fox]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Let me be clear, the sky is not falling nor did it fall when we lost those players. But I will say these kind of marginal moves are starting to pile up and reveal something about Elias and the front office.

You don't make a serious of marginal moves with a team like this, especially not when you did the same exact thing last year.

Whatever you think of Rogers or the Norby/Stowers haul, I don't think it's a good comp to last year's moves, since Rogers is not a rental. 

They probably think they can Jake Arrieta this guy and get a multiple year playoff-level SP. We'll see if they're right. 

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Let me be clear, the sky is not falling nor did it fall when we lost those players. But I will say these kind of marginal moves are starting to pile up and reveal something about Elias and the front office.

You don't make a serious of marginal moves with a team like this, especially not when you did the same exact thing last year.

It's telling us that he's going to build this org around high probability studs, and that he's focused on sustained success over an all-in approach.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I question how tenable this strategy is long term.

We certainly can't do this every single year. And that's kind of what he promised was trying to not have rebuild periods anymore. 

Even next year it's like... we don't have another Burnes, and we probably don't have the pieces to trade for one. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Just Regular said:

Maybe Elias only made this trade because he read the @Can_of_cornpost about how real championship contenders have good SP5 options.

Pretty sure he has me on /ignore.