Offer Anthony Santander 3 year 60 million contract

[Just Regular]

I was surprised how much fWAR loved 2022 Jorge Mateo.    Looking back over Orioles Bats the last few seasons, with 5 weeks to go it "only" has Santander on a career year level with 2022 Mateo.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=1&team=2&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024

Kjerstad concussion questions if present in winter surely peg him at a low value point so he probably won't move then.   Retaining "both Ryans" would be my guess if Elias wants some extra RF security in early 2025.

[wildcard]

I don't think Elias would expect Kjerstad to replace Santander's offensive performance.   Maybe Kjerstad playing a average RF defensively and having a decent offensive year.

The replacement of Santander's  offense would come from the  combined improved performance from Cowser, Holliday, Westburg and Mayo.

I could see Kjerstad being Plan A in RF and O'Hearn being Plan B.   Mayo moving to  1B/DH along with Mounty.

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Link isn’t working for me.  What does it say?

It’s just him hitting the homer with the titanic song in the background 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

My working assumption is that Santander’s 2025 will look more like his 2022-23 seasons than 2024.   That’s still not bad though.   

I already ran a bunch of comps in another thread, and there’s a decent chance Santander could be productive for another 3 years (though that’s not guaranteed).  Beyond that, he’d be in outlier territory.   
 

He could absolutely be good for a few more years, but I think his performance this year, coupled with the current league-wide need for offense, will allow him to secure at least a 4 year deal with an AAV in the neighborhood of $20 million, maybe even 5 years if the bidding gets intense and a big market team decides to flex their financial muscles to get a deal across the finish line. 

Also, I did see that thread. Good work as usual, and a good argument for not going all out to re-sign him (i.e. matching a 4 or 5 year offer from someone else) as many posters would like us to do. If he can be had for the 3 year, $60 million dollar deal the OP suggested, then I would at least consider that, but I think he will handily beat that on the open market and that he and his agent know that.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias would expect Kjerstad to replace Santander's offensive performance

I think he's also smart enough to not expect Anthony Santander to replace Anthony Santander's 2024 offensive performance.

[Three Run Homer]

It's likely that Kjerstad would not reproduce Santander's 2024 production next season.   But continued improvement from young hitters like Cowser and Holliday can easily make up for the loss of production from RF.  Meanwhile, the money we save from not signing Santander to an overpay can be used to improve our pitching.   I'd rather overpay for Roki Sasaki than Anthony Santander, and it's not even close.   

[Camden_yardbird]

I think he signs a 5/$110.  It's basically a shorter version of Olsons deal.