Donta Williams release and why Elias needs to adjust his draft philosophy

[Ripken]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

Ownership needs to spend. If that happens, Elias can keep the existing draft strategy going assuming the international class churns out some arms. Those are all levers that can be pulled.

Yes but we can't buy all of it.  There has to be pitching in the system, which can come help in Baltimore when needed.  There is none of that now and it's a concern.  Also, I include international drafting when I say I want more arms drafted.

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Gunnar wasn’t a first rounder, Mayo was not a first rounder, Ortiz not a first rounder, Norby wasn’t a first rounder, Stowers wasn’t a first rounder,   That is one MVP type player, one that is top 15 prospect in all of baseball, one young player that is looking like a solid major league, 2 decent young prospect traded for a 4th or 5th starter you control for 2 more years. .   Those are not just guys that he drafted that made the majors but high caliber players.  As Frobby said not all guys making the majors are equal so just looking at how many guys from draft get to majors is worthless.  We have drafted so well that we could trade guys like Ortiz, Norby, and Stowers because they couldn’t crack our lineup.  
 

You need to go back and reread my posts instead of shaking your Elias pom poms. 

I've said all along Ortiz was a great pick. Go look at the players Stowers and Norby were selected over. Both are defensively challenged. 

This ENTIRE time I've been talking about his college hitters strategy after the 1st round so Gunnar and Mayo don't count. I even said he should draft more high school hitters because of his success in drafting them. 

You need to take a deep breath, and reread my posts slowly so you don't miss out because you seem like you are such a hurry to defend Elias that you are literally missing my entire points.

[LookitsPuck]

5 minutes ago, Ripken said:

Yes but we can't buy all of it.  There has to be pitching in the system, which can come help in Baltimore when needed.  There is none of that now and it's a concern.  Also, I include international drafting when I say I want more arms drafted.

I guess I don’t care about the O’s drafting pitchers from the amateur draft high as long as they get them via trades, FA, and the international draft.

Teams construct rotations all kinds of ways. The Brewers don’t have a single homegrown starter in their rotation. Peralta came from the Mariners, Rea from the Padres system, Civale the Guardians, Myers the Orioles, Ross the Padres. 

Yeah, we can’t be the Yankees via spending, but their rotation doesn’t have a single homegrown arm in it (Schmidt was one but hurt) aside from Cortes. And Cortes was thought of so highly by the Yanks they exposed him to the Rule V. Gil, Cole, Stroman, Rodon all came from other systems, trades, FA. 

There are other examples, too.

Edited August 13 by LookitsPuck

[bpilktree67]

9 minutes ago, Ripken said:

It's clearly a philosophy that demands heavily trading for, and paying for, pitching.  With the horrid ownership group that finally left us, paying for pitching up to this season was never going to happen.  That left trades and reclamation projects as the only options.  While that has worked to an extent, the team did not have sufficient pitching last post season.  They likely would've been in great shape this year if not for several injuries, though there were huge warning signs in some cases.  

I don't believe this bullpen can win a championship and I'm concerned about the staff next year.  How much Dave will spend, which includes Elias even wanting to take high dollar risks, will say much about sustaining the success of the last two seasons.  Beyond which, ignoring pitchers high in the draft can not continue.  Pitching is extremely volatile and winning the war of attrition and failure requires strong depth, which the Orioles do not have.

It took two useful (not great) pieces to get a very meh Rogers this deadline.  It took three kids to get Eflin.  One year of Burnes cost us two players we all liked.  I'm good with all of those transactions but how sustainable are the multi-player-for-1 trades?  The farm system already looks pretty mediocre once Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad are out of it.  I very much hope we see a different drafting approach going forward and I hope ownership loves handing out money.

Ortiz and Hall got us Burnes and a top 35 pick in the draft.  We have lost a few prospects but have also replaced some.  If they decide to let Santander and Burnes go we could have 4 picks in the first 40 picks which would be huge in restocking the farm.  

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Astros managed it ergo the Orioles will do it.

Elias forgot to bring the pitching hard drive.

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why?  Similar age, Reilly has excellent stuff, is performing well at the same level (and now in AA)…good command. That was an under the radar move that I think could be huge for us.

I love the trade, but Reilly is not the same age, he's 14 months older. The Orioles selected Levi Wells in the 4th round instead of Reilly. 

Reilly is a fastball (92-95), slider, cutter guy who really doesn't have much of a changeup right now. Baumeister has a little more upside with four pitches and while his command is not great, I think he has a better chance of sticking as a starter.

Saying that, they would not be that far apart on the prospect list.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Ortiz and Hall got us Burnes and a top 35 pick in the draft.  We have lost a few prospects but have also replaced some.  If they decide to let Santander and Burnes go we could have 4 picks in the first 40 picks which would be huge in restocking the farm.  

The Orioles gave up a pick, Ortiz and Hall for Burnes.

[LookitsPuck]

7 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Ortiz and Hall got us Burnes and a top 35 pick in the draft.  We have lost a few prospects but have also replaced some.  If they decide to let Santander and Burnes go we could have 4 picks in the first 40 picks which would be huge in restocking the farm.  

I said it before, but aside from Grayson and Means (both hurt), there is no longer a single homegrown arm in the Orioles rotation, and yet

Burnes, Bradish, Kremer, Rogers, Eflin all from trades

Suarez from FA, Wells Rule V

Is it a sustainable strategy? As long as you supplement from FA and international draft and trades, yeah. I think so. But you should also not be counting on Means and Wells going into a season due to injury concerns, tbh. I care more about that then I do drafting pitchers high in the amateur draft.

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I was no longer responding to you specifically, just offering a general take.

I see your point now. I agree for the most part. It is fair to say the college bats have been uneven. Norby, Ortiz, Stowers, Etzel, and Cook are some exceptions. Beavers and Fabian could still be something. 

One question, what about 2023? That draft looks a lot more like what you are suggesting. After the top two, 7 of the next 9 (11 of 14) were pitchers. There are some viable names in that group but they are still TBD. If none of them pan out, would that be an indictment of the evaluation more than the strategy?

I realize that most of these guys will not make it regardless of whether they are pitchers or hitters. That strategy ending up getting us Eflin. Would we have gotten Eflin if they didn't draft Baumeister in the second round? 

I do worry that the Orioles are just not very good at evaluating amateur pitchers. Even the guys they acquired in the trades (outside of Bradish and Cano) have not exactly been impactful for the Orioles over the last two years. 

[LookitsPuck]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I realize that most of these guys will not make it regardless of whether they are pitchers or hitters. That strategy ending up getting us Eflin. Would we have gotten Eflin if they didn't draft Baumeister in the second round? 

I do worry that the Orioles are just not very good at evaluating amateur pitchers. Even the guys they acquired in the trades (outside of Bradish and Cano) have not exactly been impactful for the Orioles over the last two years. 

Coulombe

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I love the trade, but Reilly is not the same age, he's 14 months older. The Orioles selected Levi Wells in the 4th round instead of Reilly. 

Reilly is a fastball (92-95), slider, cutter guy who really doesn't have much of a changeup right now. Baumeister has a little more upside with four pitches and while his command is not great, I think he has a better chance of sticking as a starter.

Saying that, they would not be that far apart on the prospect list.

Ugh..yes. I thought I was looking at Reilly’s page but was looking at Baumeister.(for the age)

I still like Reilly a lot. Won’t be surprised if he’s more impactful. Saying that, I wasn’t happy to see Baumeister go. I like his upside.

[Ripken]

20 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Ortiz and Hall got us Burnes and a top 35 pick in the draft.  We have lost a few prospects but have also replaced some.  If they decide to let Santander and Burnes go we could have 4 picks in the first 40 picks which would be huge in restocking the farm.  

Burnes for one year and we also gave up a 1st in that trade, which I didn't mention because we'll get one back if he doesn't sign here... but that also means we no longer have Burnes.

[Ripken]

23 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I guess I don’t care about the O’s drafting pitchers from the amateur draft high as long as they get them via trades, FA, and the international draft.

Teams construct rotations all kinds of ways. The Brewers don’t have a single homegrown starter in their rotation. Peralta came from the Mariners, Rea from the Padres system, Civale the Guardians, Myers the Orioles, Ross the Padres. 

Yeah, we can’t be the Yankees via spending, but their rotation doesn’t have a single homegrown arm in it (Schmidt was one but hurt) aside from Cortes. And Cortes was thought of so highly by the Yanks they exposed him to the Rule V. Gil, Cole, Stroman, Rodon all came from other systems, trades, FA. 

There are other examples, too.

Generally, I don't care where it comes from either but I certainly care that we have enough of it and the easiest way to get pitching is to draft and develop it.  Even if all 13 pitchers in Baltimore came from somewhere else there is still a huge need to have more arms growing in the minors.  You're just never going to have enough depth if you can't develop at least some of your own pitching and giving away multiple prospects and huge piles of money every year is not sustainable either.

[accinfo]

I certainly think that Mike Elias/Sig are not beyond constructive criticism.  Same thing with Brandon Hyde.  Where it isn’t constructive is the definitive criticism’s that they are poor at what they do despite the results we have seen the last two years.  It is just hard to read any posts that say or intimate either has to go.  

As far as Elias drafting philosophy until tt his point I think we should consider that I am sure it has been influenced by the limited budget he had to work with under Angelos.  I can see the argument he didn’t really change much of that philosophy this past draft with Rubenstein as the owner and that is a fair statement.  I do think it is fair to give them time to see how they make decisions this off season with more money to spend.  He is working under very different circumstances than he has been since he took the job.  Maybe they will sign Burnes or another big time pitching prospect to solidify the rotation for the immediate future.  We need to see what he can turn keeping Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, and Kjersted this trade deadline into as far as pitching depth in the future.  

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I said it before, but aside from Grayson and Means (both hurt), there is no longer a single homegrown arm in the Orioles rotation, and yet

Burnes, Bradish, Kremer, Rogers, Eflin all from trades

Suarez from FA, Wells Rule V

Is it a sustainable strategy? As long as you supplement from FA and international draft and trades, yeah. I think so. But you should also not be counting on Means and Wells going into a season due to injury concerns, tbh. I care more about that then I do drafting pitchers high in the amateur draft.

I think it’s very difficult to sustain.  We aren’t in “sell veterans” mode like the Bundy, Manny, Mancini and Lopez trades that brought a lot of our younger pitchers.   And the “buy” trades often cost 2-3 good prospects to buy a pitcher who will be a free agent in 1-3 years.  So I do think the Orioles are going to need to start drafting some pitchers.  That doesn’t necessarily mean that he wasn’t smart to go hitter-heavy for the last several years, but I don’t think you can do it forever.