Orioles vs Tigers/KC (Wild Card series)

[DirtyBird]

1 hour ago, Warehouse said:

He doesn’t, unless Hyde makes an unforced error.  Slater and Mullins give us a better chance.

What chance does Mullins give us?

[Warehouse]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

What chance does Mullins give us?

Since Aug 1 he has a .327 xwOBA vs LHP vs. .218 xwOBA for Cowser.  He generally makes more contact and isn’t as hopeless against changeups.  I expect Cowser to basically be an automatic out vs. Skubal. I don’t expect Mullins to do well either, but I think he gives us a better chance at the plate than Cowser.

[Warehouse]

Looking more closely at the Tigers’ hitting splits, I think we should definitely carry 5 LHP. They are a good lineup against RHP and a bad lineup against LHP. Greene and Carpenter are monsters against RHP.  Further, park effects will depress power for right-handed hitters (only half of Matt Vierling’s 16 home runs would be over the wall at Camden Yards).

Tigers active roster handedness splits since August 1

	OPS	xOPS
vs RHP	.749	.738
vs LHP	.676	.626
Δ	.73	.112

[eddie83]

2 hours ago, forphase1 said:

Except Slater sucks this year against LHP, regardless of career numbers and what Hyde says.   .541 OPS is really bad.  I'll take Cowser and his .661 OPS vs LHP over Slater, even with his poor showing against breaking balls.

They didn’t acquire Slater to face RHP. They were buying his career stats. 

[TopGunnar]

Love how the team has looked since they got some guys back from injury. But let’s be honest, we’re going to face Skubal game 1. Our lineup with consist of Slater and McCann and we’ll probably be disappointed by the score.

[forphase1]

21 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

They didn’t acquire Slater to face RHP. They were buying his career stats. 

And?  If they were buying his career stats, then they were fooled by a bait and switch.  Yeah, career numbers are good, but they don't reflect the reality of this year.  .541 OPS against LHP.  Elias/Hyde has a tendency to bring in guys who might have had good career numbers, but who are not playing at that level in the current year, but then letting them play like they are performing at career levels.  Slaters numbers this year don't reflect that he should be getting starts versus LHP over Cowser, even with the struggles Cowser has had.  That said, I fully expect to see Slater starting as that's the move Hyde will love, and will then speak eloquently at how great Slater is hitting against LHP this year, even though that's clearly a lie.  

[eddie83]

15 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

And?  If they were buying his career stats, then they were fooled by a bait and switch.  Yeah, career numbers are good, but they don't reflect the reality of this year.  .541 OPS against LHP.  Elias/Hyde has a tendency to bring in guys who might have had good career numbers, but who are not playing at that level in the current year, but then letting them play like they are performing at career levels.  Slaters numbers this year don't reflect that he should be getting starts versus LHP over Cowser, even with the struggles Cowser has had.  That said, I fully expect to see Slater starting as that's the move Hyde will love, and will then speak eloquently at how great Slater is hitting against LHP this year, even though that's clearly a lie.  

You think Hyde alone makes the decision?

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

You think Hyde alone makes the decision?

No, as it appears to be a group think decision, where all have some input.  In the end it really doesn't matter if it's all Elias, Sigbot or Hyde or some combination of the 3, Hyde is the one who defends it to the media/fans, and he's the one who gets paid to take the critism/blame.  Either way, starting Slater is the move that WHOEVER make the decisions appears to love, so that's what I expect to see, even if it doesn't make sense based on this years performances.

[Warehouse]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

And?  If they were buying his career stats, then they were fooled by a bait and switch.  Yeah, career numbers are good, but they don't reflect the reality of this year.  .541 OPS against LHP.  Elias/Hyde has a tendency to bring in guys who might have had good career numbers, but who are not playing at that level in the current year, but then letting them play like they are performing at career levels.  Slaters numbers this year don't reflect that he should be getting starts versus LHP over Cowser, even with the struggles Cowser has had.  That said, I fully expect to see Slater starting as that's the move Hyde will love, and will then speak eloquently at how great Slater is hitting against LHP this year, even though that's clearly a lie.  

You could say the same about this year though.  Fans are buying into 2024 full year numbers that favor Cowser, then they were fooled by the bait and switch that has been Slater’s better performance over the last two months.

I don’t believe it is best practice or empirically-justified to ignore prior year metrics.  Players like Mullins or Trea Turner will sometimes struggle for months before reverting to stats closer to career averages.

[Uli2001]

20 hours ago, e16bball said:

Don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything quite like this. Detroit’s most used hitters and pitchers since August 1:

 

Of their 7 most utilized hitters, the lowest BABIP is .328. All 7 of those marks would rank in the top 25 in baseball over the course of the full season, and 5 of them would be squarely in the top 10.

Predictably, they’re mostly getting vastly better results than their contact quality would expect. Comparing expected stats to actual, you have Vierling (actual BA 27 points higher than xBA), McKinstry (+26), Meadows (+20), Carpenter (+19), and Torkelson (+10) all hitting at least 10 points better than their expected average. That is, as one might be inclined to say, outrageous fortune.

On top of that, all 8 of their most used pitchers are also (roughly) outpitching their peripherals. Brieske, Hanifee, Holton, and even Foley are all getting results that massively exceed what the metrics expect their performance has warranted. 

In short, this is a team that is playing pretty well, but they’re also getting extremely lucky. In theory, that should be a good thing for us, as their likely opponent next week. But there’s no real reason why this remarkable run of charmed results would just instantly stop because the playoffs have started — so I guess it’s in the eye of the beholder.

Another possibility is that "BABIP" is a flawed statistics. I am not saying it is, just pointing out that you can't believe it blindly.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Uli2001 said:

Another possibility is that "BABIP" is a flawed statistics. I am not saying it is, just pointing out that you can't believe it blindly.

Not sure what you mean by that?  How do you mean flawed?  It measures something and it's very upfront about what it measures and how it measures it.

I don't know why anyone would "believe it blindly", it's one tool. 

[forphase1]

20 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

You could say the same about this year though.  Fans are buying into 2024 full year numbers that favor Cowser, then they were fooled by the bait and switch that has been Slater’s better performance over the last two months.

I don’t believe it is best practice or empirically-justified to ignore prior year metrics.  Players like Mullins or Trea Turner will sometimes struggle for months before reverting to stats closer to career averages.

Don't get me wrong,  career numbers shouldn't be ignored completely.  But,  when dealing with a player on the wrong side of 30, I tend to gravitate more towards what they are doing now versus what they accomplished in their baseball prime.  I think what Slater had done this year more accurately reflects what to expect from him in the playoffs than what he accomplished is the more distant past.