Is Matt Wieters >Adley?

[Gurgi]

I always thought the hype of how the Orioles played great ever since Adley showed up.  But maybe its true because when he slumped for three months the Orioles collapsed.   

Something is wrong with him.  Hope our off-season which starts tonight heals him up.

[Warehouse]

Below is how is a comparison of Adley’s 2023, first 3 months of 2024, last 3 months of 2024, and MLB 2024 averages.

One of the bigger issues has been the spike in pop-ups.
 

	2023	H1 24	H2 24	MLB
PAs	681	356	279	-
K%	14.8	18.3	13.6	22.8
Walk %	12.6	7.9	9.7	8.0
whiff %	15.6	19.9	13.4	25.4
Chase %	23.4	30.0	27.6	28.5
wOBA	.352	.353	.252	.310
xwOBA	.373	.346	.283	.315
BABIP	.303	.324	.211	.289
ISO	.158	.176	.093	.157
LA	13	18	20	13
GB%	42.9	34.7	35.3	42.3
PU%	4.7	4.2	11.7	7.1
Sweet spot %	37.0	41.2	28.2	34.0
Avg EV	88.4	89.5	86.6	88.8
Hard hit %	38.6	43.1	28.6	29.2
Barrel/BBE	7.5	8.8	2.8	7.9
Bat speed	-	67.9	67.1	69.6
Swing length	-	7.0	6.9	7.2

[waroriole]

7 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Below is how is a comparison of Adley’s 2023, first 3 months of 2024, last 3 months of 2024, and MLB 2024 averages.

One of the bigger issues has been the spike in pop-ups.
 

	2023	H1 24	H2 24	MLB
PAs	681	356	279	-
K%	14.8	18.3	13.6	22.8
Walk %	12.6	7.9	9.7	8.0
whiff %	15.6	19.9	13.4	25.4
Chase %	23.4	30.0	27.6	28.5
wOBA	.352	.353	.252	.310
xwOBA	.373	.346	.283	.315
BABIP	.303	.324	.211	.289
ISO	.158	.176	.093	.157
LA	13	18	20	13
GB%	42.9	34.7	35.3	42.3
PU%	4.7	4.2	11.7	7.1
Sweet spot %	37.0	41.2	28.2	34.0
Avg EV	88.4	89.5	86.6	88.8
Hard hit %	38.6	43.1	28.6	29.2
Barrel/BBE	7.5	8.8	2.8	7.9
Bat speed	-	67.9	67.1	69.6
Swing length	-	7.0	6.9	7.2

A lot of weak contact. To me that screams injury, which is probably the most frustrating explanation because he should have been on the DL to be ready for the postseason. 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Below is how is a comparison of Adley’s 2023, first 3 months of 2024, last 3 months of 2024, and MLB 2024 averages.

One of the bigger issues has been the spike in pop-ups.
 

	2023	H1 24	H2 24	MLB
PAs	681	356	279	-
K%	14.8	18.3	13.6	22.8
Walk %	12.6	7.9	9.7	8.0
whiff %	15.6	19.9	13.4	25.4
Chase %	23.4	30.0	27.6	28.5
wOBA	.352	.353	.252	.310
xwOBA	.373	.346	.283	.315
BABIP	.303	.324	.211	.289
ISO	.158	.176	.093	.157
LA	13	18	20	13
GB%	42.9	34.7	35.3	42.3
PU%	4.7	4.2	11.7	7.1
Sweet spot %	37.0	41.2	28.2	34.0
Avg EV	88.4	89.5	86.6	88.8
Hard hit %	38.6	43.1	28.6	29.2
Barrel/BBE	7.5	8.8	2.8	7.9
Bat speed	-	67.9	67.1	69.6
Swing length	-	7.0	6.9	7.2

What an excellent post!  Where do you get splits on the Statcast stats?  I assume your breakdown of 1st/2nd half means pre- and post-All Star Break - would it be possible to get splits by games 1-81 and 82-182?  Not asking you to do it, I just want to know if it’s available (and how).   

That pop-up rate increase is dramatic.  Is that limited to balls caught by infielders?  Because I’ve certainly seen a lot of high arcing 300 footers to the outfield, and I don’t know if those are counted here or not.   
 

[Sanity Check]

11 minutes ago, waroriole said:

A lot of weak contact. To me that screams injury, which is probably the most frustrating explanation because he should have been on the DL to be ready for the postseason. 

So, in your mind, you hope he must be injured, and that explains it.  But what if he's not hurt and he just isn't all that we thought he would be?

After all, several Orioles went on the DL this year, right?  Why would he be exempt from that?  Why wouldn't we have wanted him rested up and healthy for the playoffs when he clearly was not playing well for two months?  I think it would be natural to lose confidence after a stretch like he's had, and it wouldn't surprise me if that's also a factor.  

[waroriole]

12 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

So, in your mind, you hope he must be injured, and that explains it.  But what if he's not hurt and he just isn't all that we thought he would be?

After all, several Orioles went on the DL this year, right?  Why would he be exempt from that?  Why wouldn't we have wanted him rested up and healthy for the playoffs when he clearly was not playing well for two months?  I think it would be natural to lose confidence after a stretch like he's had, and it wouldn't surprise me if that's also a factor.  

Yes, my hope is that he’s injured. I think it’s also the most likely explanation. We’ll get talk of how he wanted to stay out there for the team blah blah blah. I don’t think it’s likely that he just forgot how to hit, coincidentally after getting hit on the hand, but anything is possible. 

[LookitsPuck]

I'll repeat this until the cows come home: don't judge a guy by his worst year (in this case, an awful second half) when he's established himself the previous 2.5+ seasons. He's still young, and he plays a grueling position. Regardless, what Hyde or Adley says during the regular season, he was dealing with a back issue earlier in the year...and I do truly wonder if there's some lingering issues.

Also, give me Adley over Wieters.

[spleen1015]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s still ridiculous.

This thread getting to 50+ posts is even ridiculouser.

Edited 1 hour ago by spleen1015
fixin speelin

[Moose Milligan]

Adley's popping up cause he's got a girlfriend.

See what I did there? 

[LookitsPuck]

A thing of note, he had that back issue in the middle of August, but on July 27th, he was hit on the hand during the Rangers game. At that point in time, he was batting 300 with an 830 OPS. The 2 weeks leading up to that, he was batting 309 with a near 900 OPS. So, it's not like he was struggling when he was hit.

In the 2 weeks of games after: 120 batting average, 519 OPS. And we all know how he's been month to month the remaining months.

So, the big question: how much did that play into it? Probably a combination of a long grueling season, hand injury, and the back issue. 

Even looking at Adley last year full season, he struggled in June (660 OPS), but then followed that up with the following OPS's in July, August, and September respectively: 776, 770, 922.

I really think this is something nagging. An amazing hitter like Adley doesn't just completely fall off a cliff like that. And certainly not at 26 y/o.

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Adley's popping up cause he's got a girlfriend.

See what I did there? 

Think a lot of folks pop up once they get a girlfriend. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Think a lot of folks pop up once they get a girlfriend. 

Yeah, but have you seen Adley's?  Schwing.  She's so hot that even SG would be distracted from posting on OH.

[spleen1015]

Hasn't he had a girlfriend for a long time? And she's just now a distraction?

[Too Tall]

Adley - Is it an injury? Is it a woman? Is it the "process?" Is it just who he is at his age? What Is It? And no, I'm not doing a pole. Wait till 2025 for the answer - I think. Till then - speculate. This off season goin be fun on here. This thread kinda makes me miss Rick Dempsey and I have absolutely no idea why.  Oh yea, he was our last WSMVP.

[Warehouse]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What an excellent post!  Where do you get splits on the Statcast stats?  I assume your breakdown of 1st/2nd half means pre- and post-All Star Break - would it be possible to get splits by games 1-81 and 82-182?  Not asking you to do it, I just want to know if it’s available (and how).   

That pop-up rate increase is dramatic.  Is that limited to balls caught by infielders?  Because I’ve certainly seen a lot of high arcing 300 footers to the outfield, and I don’t know if those are counted here or not.   
 

I use the StatCast search function. It’s a little more complicated for chase rate, ground ball rate, popup rate, and sweet spot rate because you need to adjust selected pitch attributes/outcomes as well as total pitch definition and then use % of pitches.

I believe popups are categorized by stringers and generally capture balls that an infielder could catch.  I believe Adley’s fly balls have gotten can of cornier even without the popups.