Meoli on the 1st base situation

[Otter]

4 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Mayo cant and we wont lose Mounty this year.

How do you know Mayo can't play better defense than Mountcastle?  Do you forget how terrible Mountcastle was at other positions in the minors and that it took him a while to get comfortable at 1B?  I believe given enough reps, Mayo has the ability to be at least a decent defensive 1B.  Mayo is a top 10 prospect with outstanding traditional stats as well as elite advanced metrics.  Yes, he looked terrible at the plate in his short stint in MLB...but he wasn't put in a good position to succeed by Hyde only playing him sporadically.  It's hard enough for a veteran to get into a rhythm at the plate with occasional starts, but exceptionally more difficult for a rookie to trying to produce in that setting.  

I'd trade Mountcastle for pitching, and give Mayo an opportunity to compete for starting 1B job in ST.

[Aristotelian]

37 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Probably.  I don't know if we have a full time DH next year, but I think we'll have a rotation of guys taking that spot, which is wrong, IMO.

Adley's OPS last year as a DH was .854 vs. .650 as a catcher.  

And that's not an outlier.  For his career, he's got an .859 OPS as a DH compared to .740 as a catcher.

The Orioles have to know this.  I know Adley won't want to give up catching, but that's his problem.  We should be able to all agree that he's not all-world behind the plate.  I'm in full favor of giving the majority of the at bats at DH to Adley and using him as a backup catcher instead of the primary and breaking him in at first base.  This assumes that we pick up a good defensive oriented catcher in free agency to be the primary and we'll see where Basallo is early next season.

I get it, no one saw Adley having these issues this early in his career, everyone thought that he'd be a stalwart at catcher for 10+ years.  But things don't always go as planned and if his bat is better when he's DHing, that's what it is.  

I don't care if he was the #1 overall pick as a catcher, I don't care if he's been an all-star, I don't care if he's a face of the franchise...the bat plays better when he's not behind the plate and the defense isn't great enough to warrant him staying back there.  

 

Who else do we have at C that can outperform Adley's .740? I agree we need to reduce Adley's C load, but then we need to replace his production at C. Basallo could be that guy but we don't know yet. Maybe with better load management they could both perform well as a C/DH platoon on a 50/50 basis. For now I think you have to roll with Adley but perhaps reduce his load a bit. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Otter said:

How do you know Mayo can't play better defense than Mountcastle?  Do you forget how terrible Mountcastle was at other positions in the minors and that it took him a while to get comfortable at 1B?  I believe given enough reps, Mayo has the ability to be at least a decent defensive 1B.  Mayo is a top 10 prospect with outstanding traditional stats as well as elite advanced metrics.  Yes, he looked terrible at the plate in his short stint in MLB...but he wasn't put in a good position to succeed by Hyde only playing him sporadically.  It's hard enough for a veteran to get into a rhythm at the plate with occasional starts, but exceptionally more difficult for a rookie to trying to produce in that setting.  

I'd trade Mountcastle for pitching, and give Mayo an opportunity to compete for starting 1B job in ST.

 

How do you know Mayo can play better defense?  

IIRC it was Mounty's arm and throwing that was really the issue at different infield spots.  Not the glove itself.

Mayo might be able to become a good defender at first.  I certainly think the Orioles are going to give him a shot at it, so we'll see what happens.  I'm not sure what kind of pitching we'd be able to get back for Mountcastle.

[Safelykept]

6 minutes ago, Otter said:

How do you know Mayo can't play better defense than Mountcastle?  Do you forget how terrible Mountcastle was at other positions in the minors and that it took him a while to get comfortable at 1B?  I believe given enough reps, Mayo has the ability to be at least a decent defensive 1B.  Mayo is a top 10 prospect with outstanding traditional stats as well as elite advanced metrics.  Yes, he looked terrible at the plate in his short stint in MLB...but he wasn't put in a good position to succeed by Hyde only playing him sporadically.  It's hard enough for a veteran to get into a rhythm at the plate with occasional starts, but exceptionally more difficult for a rookie to trying to produce in that setting.  

I'd trade Mountcastle for pitching, and give Mayo an opportunity to compete for starting 1B job in ST.

I know because the little he’s played 1b in the minors was not impressive. He needs to learn a position before he gets significant ABs at the MLB level. The only place he could get steady ABs is at DH And that’s not going to happen. Mayo has lot of development to go. He’s not ready yet and that’s on him not Hyde.

[Sports Guy]

I really don’t find this to be too difficult of a situation and I think things Elias had said and done are telling:

1) He is saying Mayo will play first base. He was never going to play third here, as I have been saying for a year. I did think he would play in RF but based off of what Elias said and based off of the idea that they never tried him out there, despite taking fly balls, is one of those “actions speak louder than words” type things.

2) After the season, when speaking about the offense, one of the things he mentioned is that perhaps roster changes need to occur. No one embodies that awful approach they had more than Mounty.

Now, where it is fair to question is this:

1) They value defense. I suspect Mayo will eventually be fine over there but when?

2) Mounty is definitely a clubhouse favorite and one of the members of the clique. Does that matter? (It shouldn’t but it could)

3) Do they want Mayo to start in the majors from day 1?

4) Does Basallo, who will definitely play at least some first base, factor into this at all?

 

Mayo really has nothing to prove in the minors at this point, so I don’t really think starting him in AAA does anything for him or the team.

We need righties…so in some ways, it makes sense to keep Mounty but are you keeping Mounty and OHearn again, knowing you have to give at bats to Mayo and perhaps eventually Basallo?  I just don’t see that making sense. Seems like too much redundancy on the roster.

The best way to go, imo, is give Mayo the job at first and keep OHearn and trade Mounty. Mounty should have decent value and is an easy guy to sell to other teams as someone who should perform better outside Camden Yards.

 

[Otter]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

How do you know Mayo can play better defense?  

IIRC it was Mounty's arm and throwing that was really the issue at different infield spots.  Not the glove itself.

Mayo might be able to become a good defender at first.  I certainly think the Orioles are going to give him a shot at it, so we'll see what happens.  I'm not sure what kind of pitching we'd be able to get back for Mountcastle.

Touche...I don't know his defense would be better than Mounty...but I was more trying to say I think his defense would be adequate.  And yes, it was Mounty's noodle arm that made him unplayable at other positions....and it's also Mayo's arm that may also move him off 3B (because his rocket arm is inconsistent).

I'd guess we could get a decent ML reliever or two for Mounty.  The question is whether we think that's a good return.  I do remember reading a couple articles around the trade deadline saying Elias was open to trading Mounty, but not sure how reliable those sources were...

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Who else do we have at C that can outperform Adley's .740? I agree we need to reduce Adley's C load, but then we need to replace his production at C. Basallo could be that guy but we don't know yet. Maybe with better load management they could both perform well as a C/DH platoon on a 50/50 basis. For now I think you have to roll with Adley but perhaps reduce his load a bit. 

I'm so over the idea that we have to have a great hitting catcher.  IMO, catcher is defense first, handling pitchers first, intangibles first, and offense is secondary.  If you happen to have a catcher who can hit, that's a luxury but not a requirement.  

If Adley can be an .850-.875 (or even better) bat at DH, I don't necessarily care who the catcher is as long as they're a better defender than Adley was (and they probably will be).  We also have Basallo on the way so once again, I don't really care who the catcher is if Adley isn't the primary.

But if you want names, fine.  Higashioka put up a .739 OPS this year in 246 at bats which is probably an outlier of a season for him.  You could also pick up d'Arnaud for a year if the Braves decline his option.  Danny Jansen who I hate but I'm sure I'd be fine with once he put on an Orioles uniform.  @Sports Guyis all about Carson Kelly, I can understand his perspective.

Like I said, I value what a catcher does differently.  The idea that we have to have a great hitting catcher is silly, IMO.  

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I really don’t find this to be too difficult of a situation and I think things Elias had said and done are telling:

1) He is saying Mayo will play first base. He was never going to play third here, as I have been saying for a year. I did think he would play in RF but based off of what Elias said and based off of the idea that they never tried him out there, despite taking fly balls, is one of those “actions speak louder than words” type things.

2) After the season, when speaking about the offense, one of the things he mentioned is that perhaps roster changes need to occur. No one embodies that awful approach they had more than Mounty.

Now, where it is fair to question is this:

1) They value defense. I suspect Mayo will eventually be fine over there but when?

2) Mounty is definitely a clubhouse favorite and one of the members of the clique. Does that matter? (It shouldn’t but it could)

3) Do they want Mayo to start in the majors from day 1?

4) Does Basallo, who will definitely play at least some first base, factor into this at all?

 

Mayo really has nothing to prove in the minors at this point, so I don’t really think starting him in AAA does anything for him or the team.

We need righties…so in some ways, it makes sense to keep Mounty but are you keeping Mounty and OHearn again, knowing you have to give at bats to Mayo and perhaps eventually Basallo?  I just don’t see that making sense. Seems like too much redundancy on the roster.

The best way to go, imo, is give Mayo the job at first and keep OHearn and trade Mounty. Mounty should have decent value and is an easy guy to sell to other teams as someone who should perform better outside Camden Yards.

 

I think this is essentially right. I too have been saying 1B is the only position that makes sense for Mayo long term. The only question in my mind is the timing. The high risk/reward proposition is to fully commit to Mayo. Assuming we are losing Santander, O'Hearn could have some value as insurance for Kjerstad, while Mountcastle could be needed as insurance for Mayo. Mayo's first stint was not promising in terms of his learning curve. 

I would not want to trade either O'Hearn or Mountcastle for bags of balls but I would be listening.

[Otter]

4 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

I know because the little he’s played 1b in the minors was not impressive. He needs to learn a position before he gets significant ABs at the MLB level. The only place he could get steady ABs is at DH And that’s not going to happen. Mayo has lot of development to go. He’s not ready yet and that’s on him not Hyde.

Disagree.  I don't think Mayo has anything left to prove in the minors offensively, and I don't think he needs to be GG caliber at 1B to get a chance to start there.  His defensive 1B reps were a very small sample size, just like his sporadic at bats at the ML level...you can't judge him on that, it's not his fault.  He's done everything a prospect can do to show he's ready for a legit shot at ML playing time.

[Aristotelian]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I'm so over the idea that we have to have a great hitting catcher.  IMO, catcher is defense first, handling pitchers first, intangibles first, and offense is secondary.  If you happen to have a catcher who can hit, that's a luxury but not a requirement.  

If Adley can be an .850-.875 (or even better) bat at DH, I don't necessarily care who the catcher is as long as they're a better defender than Adley was (and they probably will be).  We also have Basallo on the way so once again, I don't really care who the catcher is if Adley isn't the primary.

But if you want names, fine.  Higashioka put up a .739 OPS this year in 246 at bats which is probably an outlier of a season for him.  You could also pick up d'Arnaud for a year if the Braves decline his option.  Danny Jansen who I hate but I'm sure I'd be fine with once he put on an Orioles uniform.  @Sports Guyis all about Carson Kelly, I can understand his perspective.

Like I said, I value what a catcher does differently.  The idea that we have to have a great hitting catcher is silly, IMO.  

It's not that we have to have a great hitter there, but we would need someone better than Adley, who has 13 WAR there in 3 years with his current load. I don't see Elias spending on a full time C when we have Adley with Basallo coming. I'm not even convinced any of those options would be an improvement over Adley. Yes, if Adley's second half is the new normal, then that is unacceptable. But I want to see how he looks after an offseason of rest and conditioning before completely giving up on him as C. That would be crazy reactionary imo. 

[Safelykept]

8 minutes ago, Otter said:

Disagree.  I don't think Mayo has anything left to prove in the minors offensively, and I don't think he needs to be GG caliber at 1B to get a chance to start there.  His defensive 1B reps were a very small sample size, just like his sporadic at bats at the ML level...you can't judge him on that, it's not his fault.  He's done everything a prospect can do to show he's ready for a legit shot at ML playing time.

OK, fair enough I think he still needs to learn first base at AAA.

[CTBear]

7 minutes ago, Otter said:

Disagree.  I don't think Mayo has anything left to prove in the minors offensively, and I don't think he needs to be GG caliber at 1B to get a chance to start there.  His defensive 1B reps were a very small sample size, just like his sporadic at bats at the ML level...you can't judge him on that, it's not his fault.  He's done everything a prospect can do to show he's ready for a legit shot at ML playing time.

Right, back to my comment about Mayo’s defense…I think he just needs to be an upgrade over O’Hearn there. I’m not expecting him to be better than Mounty but we don’t need GG-caliber 1B defense. Maybe over time, he can become as good of a defender but we just can’t afford for O’Hearn to be our top option there. 

[1fingerwillie]

1 hour ago, Safelykept said:

Igo with #1 too. It's made easier As being a FA  and Mayo still needing time to develop AAA.

What else can Mayo possibly do at AAA? 

[1fingerwillie]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

It's not a question of if Kjerstad, Holliday and Mayo play in the majors for the O's.  It's a question on when.    They all can't break in at the same time.   That is too risky for a contending O's team.

Santander goes FA and signs elsewhere.   So Kjerstad gets first shot at showing he can be a productive major leaguer in RF.    Holliday and Mayo are held at AAA to see how Kjerstad does.

Holliday goes 2nd probably sometime in May.    Mayo stay at AAA until Holliday show he can be a productive major leaguer at 2B.  

So Mounty and O'Hearn stay at 1B/DH until mid season when one can be traded to make room for Mayo.  

That is my guess.

I think that is wildly wrong. HK and JH are definitely on the opening day roster IMO. HK proved himself already. 

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I think this is essentially right. I too have been saying 1B is the only position that makes sense for Mayo long term. The only question in my mind is the timing. The high risk/reward proposition is to fully commit to Mayo. Assuming we are losing Santander, O'Hearn could have some value as insurance for Kjerstad, while Mountcastle could be needed as insurance for Mayo. Mayo's first stint was not promising in terms of his learning curve. 

I would not want to trade either O'Hearn or Mountcastle for bags of balls but I would be listening.

Yea and to be clear, I’m not trading Mounty just to trade him. There has to be some value coming back. Whether it’s for pitching that helps now or decent prospects but he’s not a salary dump.