Roch sheds some light on this year's draft

[ChaosLex]

Lots of good information in his morning blog. BTW, Roch is going off the assumption that Strasburg, Ackley, Tate and Crow will be off the board by the time the O's select.

College or high school? The Orioles can go either way, and I assumed they'd take the collegiate route, but I reserve the right to change my mind. And I'm doing it. I'm prepping for the possibility that they take a high school pitcher.

The top choices in that category are Jacob Turner (Westminster Christian Academy, St. Louis), Zach Wheeler (East Paulding, Dallas, Ga.) and left-hander Tyler Matzek (Capistrano Valley, Mission Viego, Ca.). Matzek sounds too much like Matusz, which will confuse all of us, so he's out.

OK, seriously, Turner is regarded as the top high school right-hander in the draft, having bypassed Wheeler and Texas native Shelby Miller. But he's also being advised by Scott Boras, who reportedly is seeking the same record guarantee for a prep player ($7 million) given to Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello. I like the upper-90s fastball, but I'm not too fond of the negotiations.

I initially was going to choose Missouri right-hander Kyle Gibson, but his drop in velocity has raised concerns. He's usually 89-93 mph with his fastball, which won't blow you away, and it reportedly sat in the mid-80s in his last start. There's talk of forearm stiffness.

Tanner Scheppers, a right-hander out of Fresno State, didn't sign with the Pirates after they chose him in the second round, and he's pitching for the independent St. Paul Saints. He's a health risk, since a shoulder injury he sustained last April has been described as significant wear and tear. Dr. Lewis Yocum has given him a clean bill of health, but there has to be some trepidation among teams.

This takes us back to the high school pitchers. Turner and Wheeler are my final two choices. Turner has a plus-curveball to go with his heat. Wheeler has a mid-90s fastball, a power break ball and signability.

I'm flipping a coin and selecting Turner. But if the Orioles choose Wheeler, I want partial credit.

http://masnsports.com/2009/06/caught-in-the-draft.html

[LookinUp]

Let me get this straight. Matzek is removed from consideration because of his name? Ugh.

[orioles119]

Let me get this straight. Matzek is removed from consideration because of his name? Ugh.

I see you missed on Roch's sarcasm...

[Stotle]

I like that Roch is giving some info for the fans that haven't been following the draft class, but he's having some fun with it. Covering the ML team full time, I doubt he has time to pour over reports and video on these kids, so I appreciate him not pretending that he's uncovered some secret key to the draft.

I actually prefer Wheeler to Miller (slightly) and Turner (moreso), so I wouldn't be overly crushed if he's right -- though the Matzek loss would be a disappointment.

[ChaosLex]

I didn't realize there was an injury concern with Gibson.

[Stotle]

I didn't realize there was an injury concern with Gibson.

I finished my write-up last night and didn't love what I saw mechanically. Having him complain about forearm tightness/pain isn't good news. He's also complained about his metabolism and how putting on weight is incredibly difficult. I wouldn't be surprised if his frame never filled-out to workhorse levels and he remained on the thin side.

Now we're getting into potentially little bump in velocity (if any) and durability issues. I don't like those possibilities increasing with a guy I was never real high on. Mid-1st for me right now, earliest.

[Baldimore, hon]

I finished my write-up last night and didn't love what I saw mechanically. Having him complain about forearm tightness/pain isn't good news. He's also complained about his metabolism and how putting on weight is incredibly difficult. I wouldn't be surprised if his frame never filled-out to workhorse levels and he remained on the thin side.

Now we're getting into potentially little bump in velocity (if any) and durability issues. I don't like those possibilities increasing with a guy I was never real high on. Mid-1st for me right now, earliest.

Yeah, he'll never be as big as, say, Tim Lincecum or Zack Greinke. I hope his frame fills out to workhorse levels.

[allstar1579]

Yeah, he'll never be as big as, say, Tim Lincecum or Zack Greinke. I hope his frame fills out to workhorse levels.

Some guys are built to throw with smaller frames, some guys need to put on muscle to increase velocity and throw better. That is the difference between a Lincecum and Lackey. Both of your examples throw 5-7mph harder than Gibson with their slight stature.

Really the sarcasm isn't needed, especially when you offer no debate or information to back up your jab.

[crawdad]

Some guys are built to throw with smaller frames, some guys need to put on muscle to increase velocity and throw better. That is the difference between a Lincecum and Lackey. Both of your examples throw 5-7mph harder than Gibson with their slight stature.

Really the sarcasm isn't needed, especially when you offer no debate or information to back up your jab.

Unwashed masses time.

:clap3:

[Baldimore, hon]

The information I gave was that there are pitchers in the big leagues with slight frames who are dominant workhorses.

And yes, sarcasm is always needed. This board is full of sarcasm. Why did I just get called out for my little bit?

[crawdad]

The information I gave was that there are pitchers in the big leagues with slight frames who are dominant workhorses.

And yes, sarcasm is always needed. This board is full of sarcasm. Why did I just get called out for my little bit?

Well, we have a small group here that discusses the draft and now is close to the time we get swamped with a bunch of folk running to and from the tide. Sarcasm is often poorly conveyed in this medium, so do not be too surprised.

If you had an honest query, size has as much to do with it as motion. Stotle is not only concerned about size, but size in conjunction with mechanics.

[Baldimore, hon]

I mean, wasn't one of the reasons we passed on Lincecum and took Rowell instead that he had a slight frame? Any of you on here wish that we hadn't made that decision? I sure do.

Now, in no way am I saying we should draft Gibson. Because, as you say, he throws 5-7 mph slower than Lincecum and he's just not nearly the prospect that Lincecum was.

I also really like Stotle's posts generally. I just wanted to point out that a guy's stature isn't a reason to count someone out, which Stotle seemed to disagree with.

[Greg Pappas]

I finished my write-up last night and didn't love what I saw mechanically. Having him complain about forearm tightness/pain isn't good news. He's also complained about his metabolism and how putting on weight is incredibly difficult. I wouldn't be surprised if his frame never filled-out to workhorse levels and he remained on the thin side.

Now we're getting into potentially little bump in velocity (if any) and durability issues. I don't like those possibilities increasing with a guy I was never real high on. Mid-1st for me right now, earliest.

Yeah... I've never been high on Gibson, but the current issue should aleviate my concern that we were going to consider him at #5. He may yet become a solid #2-3 starter, but I'd look elsewhere.

[allstar1579]

I mean, wasn't one of the reasons we passed on Lincecum and took Rowell instead that he had a slight frame? Any of you on here wish that we hadn't made that decision? I sure do.

Now, in no way am I saying we should draft Gibson. Because, as you say, he throws 5-7 mph slower than Lincecum and he's just not nearly the prospect that Lincecum was.

I also really like Stotle's posts generally. I just wanted to point out that a guy's stature isn't a reason to count someone out, which Stotle seemed to disagree with.

No actually what Stotle was mentioning is more of a term for a pitcher who has relatively low injury risk, repeatable mechanics, and a frame that can support increased workloads. No one will ever call Lincecum a workhorse, people are generally concerned and waiting for him to break down with every pitch. Oswalt is another slight guy that has not had too many injuries, but just due to the lack of muscle mass to protect the ligaments and tendons, there will always be concerns for the smaller guys.

So in terms of scouting, and drafting a guy's stature is generally reason to consider them higher or lower. Gibson's appeal was that he was relatively low injury risk and if he added some mass would be even less. Now that there is injury worry it takes a lot of what he had going for him away. It is the same deal with Scheppers, if the mystery surrounding his injury wasn't lingering he would be a very good bet for top 5.

[LookinUp]

I see you missed on Roch's sarcasm...

No, I totally get the sarcasm. What I missed was any other reason to remove Matzek from the conversation. To me, it makes his post nothing but pure, uneducated, conjecture.

I don't mean this as a slight to Roch, who I really like. I just think his post needs to be taken for what it is.