Bergy's first half

[bird watcher]

I think the major thing you are not taking into consideration is that Bergesen is a groundball pitcher while control artists who were flyball pitchers (ie: Chen, Towers, Stephens) usually end up getting hit around. I think a good comp for Bergesen's upside potential could be a right-handed Mark Buehrle.

Command is a big part of Bergesen's game, but I think you are undervaluing the improvement of his stuff this season from his past minor league seasons. I know his fastball has more sinking movement then when I saw him in the minors and his slider has certainly improved.

I am glad you posted this. I thought my eyes were deceiving me.

I am no professional and I didn't get to see him in the minors but... I see a lot of movement on Bergesen's pitches as well. I think guys aren't hitting him hard because they end up having to shorten swings to make contact. This results in lower K's but lots of weak grounders. Maybe guys will adjust and wait on more pitches. When that happens I think you may see the K rate go up.

Again, what am I missing watching this guy pitch. He is getting very similar results to his minor league career and the ball is always moving. In/out/down movement+location+average velocity. What is not to like?

P.S. Any pitcher who loses command will get knocked around. I don't care who he is. Ask Palmer.

[crawdad]

So the movement/sink on his fastball is not a plus skill? Some people are comparing it to Halladay including Greg Zaun. I act as though Begesen is pitching with smoke and mirrors. When I watched Chen, and Mercedes, and Roberts, and Towers and Driskell and Stephens, I saw guys pitching with smoke and mirrors to get major leaguers out consistently. I truly don't see that with Bergesen and the comments we are hearing and the swings were seeing from opposing batters tell me he more than an illusion.

I don't rate it as a plus skill. I like his 2 seemer, but, no, I don't think it is plus.

I think are evaluations of him are rather similar though.

[crawdad]

I think the major thing you are not taking into consideration is that Bergesen is a groundball pitcher while control artists who were flyball pitchers (ie: Chen, Towers, Stephens) usually end up getting hit around. I think a good comp for Bergesen's upside potential could be a right-handed Mark Buehrle.

Command is a big part of Bergesen's game, but I think you are undervaluing the improvement of his stuff this season from his past minor league seasons. I know his fastball has more sinking movement then when I saw him in the minors and his slider has certainly improved.

Nope. I know how their approaches differ and that is why I mentioned that their approaches were different. My point in bringing up Chen is to note how control can affect performance. I did not intend for anyone to take that association beyond that and wrote trying to explain that very point.

[Stotle]

I am no professional and I didn't get to see him in the minors but... I see a lot of movement on Bergesen's pitches as well. I think guys aren't hitting him hard because they end up having to shorten swings to make contact. This results in lower K's but lots of weak grounders. Maybe guys will adjust and wait on more pitches. When that happens I think you may see the K rate go up.

Again, what am I missing watching this guy pitch. He is getting very similar results to his minor league career and the ball is always moving. In/out/down movement+location+average velocity. What is not to like?

P.S. Any pitcher who loses command will get knocked around. I don't care who he is. Ask Palmer.

This is overly simplistic. Who is more likely to get hit hard:

1. Licecum throwing a fastball over the plate

2. Guthrie throwing a fastball over the plate

3. Hoffman throwing a fastball over the plate

What if the pitchers have to throw over the middle, but can use a fastball and a breaking ball?

These are all variables that help to determine the margin of error a pitcher has with his pitches. Strasburg could blow hitters away this spring with pitch location that would do in a lesser arm. All the variables matter and all help to determine the potential effectiveness of a pitcher on his best days, on his worst days and on the days in between. The bolded is the important part to accept and to keep in mind.

[crawdad]

Just as a note, I don't think Bergesen's command will just evaporate. However, as with velocity and spin, many variables can affect command throughout the course of a game and throughout the course of a season or career. I think it would be a bit short-sighted to assume that Bergesen will not see periodic declines in his command due to these various hurdles.

As I said earlier, if he's shifted from the rotation I think it will be because there is a better arm -- I don't think it will be that he cannot be an effective starter. That said, the point I come back to (and I believe a central point to what Jon is putting forth) is that with little margin for error, everyone should be prepared to see a decrease in production.

I'm not saying it happens in July or even 2009, but it will be very difficult for him to sustain this type of production, simply because everyone gets small injuries, everyone gets tired and everyone goes through occasional spells where they aren't at their best. It shouldn't be a controversial point. A mid- to high-4 ERAish production would be just fine, and slots him in at 4/5, as many have stated looks like the best fit.

As an aside, I agree that fielders are more engaged and less likely to make mental errors when they have a pitcher that works quickly (I don't think the ball necessarily has to be put in play). I am by no means an expert, but the few opportunities I had to play college ball were earned almost exclusively off of the strength of my defense up the middle, and it was certainly a factor with every team I played on -- from HS to Legion to national travel teams. Having a pitcher who worked quickly always helped me perform at a higher level.

Yeah, if what people are taking from my comments is the bolded above. I am clearly not explaining myself well. My point is that being a control oriented pitcher with largely average pitches, if he hits a rough part where his control degrades . . . he does not have the quality of pitches to make up for it. He will be hit. There are several young arms coming through the minors who will push him. A mid-5 era while not striking anyone out with a young 'un chewing at the bit . . . that creates a situation where I do not think the string will be played out.

[Frobby]

I think the major thing you are not taking into consideration is that Bergesen is a groundball pitcher while control artists who were flyball pitchers (ie: Chen, Towers, Stephens) usually end up getting hit around. I think a good comp for Bergesen's upside potential could be a right-handed Mark Buehrle.

Command is a big part of Bergesen's game, but I think you are undervaluing the improvement of his stuff this season from his past minor league seasons. I know his fastball has more sinking movement then when I saw him in the minors and his slider has certainly improved.

He works really fast and has good command like Buehrle, but I have trouble seeing Bergesen reach that level. Buehrle has had only two seasons where his K/9 rate dropped below 5.00, and those were his worst two ERA full seasons.

[Stotle]

Yeah, if what people are taking from my comments is the bolded above. I am clearly not explaining myself well. My point is that being a control oriented pitcher with largely average pitches, if he hits a rough part where his control degrades . . . he does not have the quality of pitches to make up for it. He will be hit. There are several young arms coming through the minors who will push him. A mid-5 era while not striking anyone out with a young 'un chewing at the bit . . . that creates a situation where I do not think the string will be played out.

I didn't take that from your comments -- but a quick tour through the discussion seemed to indicate that was the argument being attributed to you. I agree with what you say, here. And I don't think it's particularly controversial.

[Tony-OH]

I don't rate it as a plus skill. I like his 2 seemer, but, no, I don't think it is plus.

I think are evaluations of him are rather similar though.

I don't really think our evals are that off either, but I would certainly rate his sinking fastball a plus pitch due to the movement.

[Tony-OH]

Yeah, if what people are taking from my comments is the bolded above. I am clearly not explaining myself well. My point is that being a control oriented pitcher with largely average pitches, if he hits a rough part where his control degrades . . . he does not have the quality of pitches to make up for it. He will be hit. There are several young arms coming through the minors who will push him. A mid-5 era while not striking anyone out with a young 'un chewing at the bit . . . that creates a situation where I do not think the string will be played out.

If this is where you think Bergesen will end up then we probably do differ on oiur evals. I look at Bergesen as a guy who will pitch to a 4.00-4.50 ERA and give you 200 innings. In this day and age, that's a pretty good starter.

When our bullpen is filled with guys like Berken and possibly Hernandez, I could see Bergesen getting that ERA lower because he won't have to be pushed to far into games.

Also, I still think the difference is your see a guy with fringy stuff but plus command, while I see a guy with two quality major league pitches who brings all the other attributes you want from a starting pitcher besides the great K rate, and offsets that by being a heavy groundball pitcher.

[Tony-OH]

He works really fast and has good command like Buehrle, but I have trouble seeing Bergesen reach that level. Buehrle has had only two seasons where his K/9 rate dropped below 5.00, and those were his worst two ERA full seasons.

Yet like you so astutely pointed out earlier in the thread, Bergesen's K rates have always improved the second time through a level. Bergesen is probably going to pitch to a higher ERA because he doesn't miss enough bats, but he's got enough movement on his pitches that he can command around the strike zone that I believe he can stick as a starter long term.

[Frobby]

Yet like you so astutely pointed out earlier in the thread, Bergesen's K rates have always improved the second time through a level. Bergesen is probably going to pitch to a higher ERA because he doesn't miss enough bats, but he's got enough movement on his pitches that he can command around the strike zone that I believe he can stick as a starter long term.

I'm with you on this. I just don't think he'll reach the level of Mark Buehrle, who for my money has to be one of the most underrated pitchers in the major leagues. This is his 9th full season in the majors, and barring injury, it will be 9 straight years of 200 IP, and he likely will have a sub-4.00 ERA for the 7th time in 9 years. If you look at this decade, he has to be right at the top in wins, ERA and innings. Yet, you never hear about the guy.

Buehrle might just be Exhibit A in my list of reasons why it was prudent to keep Bergesen from earning a full year of service time in 2009.

[mikezpen]

Bergeson reminds me of Mike Boddicker-unspectacular stuff but real good movement and command of it. Very similar K rates.I think both have to pitch with their brains as well as with their arms.

Boddicker hung around 14 seasons and was a pretty successful pitcher. Bergeson could be a one year fluke and be nothing thereafter. Nothing is guaranteed. But if the comparison with Boddicker holds, he'll have a solid career. And since he's developed at 23 while Boddicker was 27 when he came up, he might be a bigger winner.

[Frobby]

Bergeson reminds me of Mike Boddicker-unspectacular stuff but real good movement and command of it. Very similar K rates.I think both have to pitch with their brains as well as with their arms.

Boddicker hung around 14 seasons and was a pretty successful pitcher. Bergeson could be a one year fluke and be nothing thereafter. Nothing is guaranteed. But if the comparison with Boddicker holds, he'll have a solid career. And since he's developed at 23 while Boddicker was 27 when he came up, he might be a bigger winner.

Boddicker was 25 when he first pitched a full season. He had some cups of coffee before then. I like the comparison, though Boddicker's breaking stuff was pretty good. He threw a pitch they called the "foshball" that nobody else threw, and a very good curve.

[mikezpen]

I remember the fosh-sort of a right-hander's screwball Boddicker used on lefties.Bergeson was supposed to be weak against lefties but they're batting only .242 right now, and that's pretty good.

Boddicker had tremendous movement on his pitches when he came up. That's the thing I recall most.The guy must have had some left-handed genes in there somewhere because he never threw anything straight! He was the last Oriole to win 20, BTW, 20-11 in 1984.

[crawdad]

If this is where you think Bergesen will end up then we probably do differ on oiur evals. I look at Bergesen as a guy who will pitch to a 4.00-4.50 ERA and give you 200 innings. In this day and age, that's a pretty good starter.

When our bullpen is filled with guys like Berken and possibly Hernandez, I could see Bergesen getting that ERA lower because he won't have to be pushed to far into games.

Also, I still think the difference is your see a guy with fringy stuff but plus command, while I see a guy with two quality major league pitches who brings all the other attributes you want from a starting pitcher besides the great K rate, and offsets that by being a heavy groundball pitcher.

I don't think that is off from where I am with the late 4s. You see him as a 3, I see him as a 4/5. In terms of terminology, I think an average pitch is major league quality. We do seem to slightly vary in how we rate the 2 seamer. He does get the same vertical movement as Halladay on his fastball, but not the same horizontal movement. Maybe, if given three years, he could turn it up a bit.