Bergy's first half

[crawdad]

Frobby I think it even goes farther than this. IF he continues to sequence well and hit his spots he is going to be a very good starter. His stuff is so-so, but his execution has been outstanding. I really don't think he gets the credit he deserves for repeating this pattern for a long time. I do agree that if he stops executing he will get killed. He is very similar to Wang in that regard. His stuff is not good enough to get away with very many mistakes at all. However I don't think it is a given that the current pattern can't be followed for a decent career. One think I find interesting about Bergy is he pitches like a long time vet has a very young rookie.

Right, he can be successful doing this. The deck is stacked against him, and we all love an underdog. Hopefully he continues as he has.

[Frobby]

What I am saying, rather ad nauseum, is that if his command falters, he has nothing left to hang his hat on. Most pitchers are successful for a variety of reasons. If one day there is a failing in one of those skills, the others back it up and at least get one through it. If command is your sole plus skill, it becomes imperative that that one skill remains true.

Likewise, if you have one good pitch . . . you lose it . . . you have nothing to lean on.

Frobby I think it even goes farther than this. IF he continues to sequence well and hit his spots he is going to be a very good starter. His stuff is so-so, but his execution has been outstanding. I really don't think he gets the credit he deserves for repeating this pattern for a long time. I do agree that if he stops executing he will get killed. He is very similar to Wang in that regard. His stuff is not good enough to get away with very many mistakes at all. However I don't think it is a given that the current pattern can't be followed for a decent career. One thing I find interesting about Bergy is he pitches like a long time vet has a very young rookie.

Right, he can be successful doing this. The deck is stacked against him, and we all love an underdog. Hopefully he continues as he has.

I wouldn't disagree that Bergesen has to have good command to succeed. In fact, I agree completely with that statement. I guess where I disagree is with the idea that the odds are stacked against him. This isn't a case like Guthrie, who in 2007 suddenly showed command that was much better than he had displayed in a pretty long minor league career. Bergesen's typically been a guy who had good command. His 2.2 BB/9 this year compares to 1.6 BB/9 in the minors. So while I agree he will not be effective if his command slips significantly, I'm not at all sure that this is just a case of a guy pitching over his head for a while, command-wise.

I don't expect a 3.54 ERA from Bergy long term, but I think he's a guy who will throw 200 IP per year with an ERA in the mid-4's, which has a lot of value. And hopefully for this year, he can do better than that.

[crawdad]

I wouldn't disagree that Bergesen has to have good command to succeed. In fact, I agree completely with that statement. I guess where I disagree is with the idea that the odds are stacked against him. This isn't a case like Guthrie, who in 2007 suddenly showed command that was much better than he had displayed in a pretty long minor league career. Bergesen's typically been a guy who had good command. His 2.2 BB/9 this year compares to 1.6 BB/9 in the minors. So while I agree he will not be effective if his command slips significantly, I'm not at all sure that this is just a case of a guy pitching over his head for a while, command-wise.

I don't expect a 3.54 ERA from Bergy long term, but I think he's a guy who will throw 200 IP per year with an ERA in the mid-4's, which has a lot of value. And hopefully for this year, he can do better than that.

I'd probably shade more to high 4s, but this is probably a realistic scenario. I just don't think when he has a bad year (mid 5) it will be tolerated. When a guy like Cabrera threw poorly, you still saw that excellent stuff and the strikeouts were still there. When a control artist slumps . . . you see some awful results with little silver lining.

An Oriole example would be Bruce Chen in '05 and in '06.

I'm not saying that Bergie is like Chen. He certainly is not. They have different pitching approaches, but both of them did well at times due to their command.

[wickedwitch]

I'd probably shade more to high 4s, but this is probably a realistic scenario.

????? I thought you believed that he will end up as a relief pitcher?

[Flosman]

Another thing I have noticed in looking at Bergy's minor league numbers is that he seems to adapt to new levels after time. Following midseason promotions his K rate has seemed to suffer falling to below 5.5, however he consistantly rebounds the following season to over 7. If this pattern were to hold and say he rebounds to higher than 6.75 at the ML level then some of the aurguments against him being suited to a starting role go out the window.

But you know the truth is Stotle is right he is a joy to watch pitch and it is easy to hope he can maintain what he is doing. He actually maximizes his potential and I guess that is such a breath of fresh air compared to the Ponson's, Dcab's, etc., etc, we have all had to endure.

[gamzover]

This guy has been all that and more. Better then advertised.Right now he is our only pitcher that when i sit down and watch the game i think we got a real good chance of winning.

[Tony-OH]

He is his command. His whole game is his command. That is overstating it slightly, but it is very important for him to be able to place his pitches around the plate with good accuracy.

I'm going to disagre with you a bit here. Although I agree that Bergesen's fantastic control is a big part of "game," the amount of movement on his pitches also is very big part. Nothing he throws is straight and when you comabines that with oustanding command and smarts, you have a guy who will have some success.

Pace? People like to talk about pace, but it really does not meaningfully affect a performance. Kind of like how players who get dirt on their uniform are often well loved.

I'm going to say this is a stat-based belief since there is no way to quantify pace really. However, you will not find a player who doesn't believe they play better defensively behind a guy who pitches to contact, throws strikes, and does it quickly.

If he is able to keep his command and he improves that curve or his change . . . he will do well to stick in the rotation. The thing is if he hits a hard spell and his command slips slightly, then we have several people in the system pushing him. He could probably sit well on the backend of an NL rotation, but here he is going to face more competition and, I think, wind up in the pen where he will be more effective as he will not have to worry about stretching himself for 6 or 7 innings.

I'm going to disagree with you here as well although I agree with you if his command suddenly disappears he will get hit much more. Saying that, I think what he's shown is that he has most of the aspects you look for in a starter and although I don't think he's a front of the rotation guy, nothing I've seen suggests he can not remain a starter. I agree that he will have a tough time a third and possibly 4th time through an order without using his change more as batters see him more, but the amount of sink he gets on that fastball really makes it tough for batters to square him up too often and the improvement to his slider (the main reason in my mind why he's having success), especially against lefties along with his ability to get outs with a few pitches allows him to get into the 7th inning more time than not. That's a very good skill to have.

Anyway, even in shorts bits you can see how slight changes in command quality affects him. When he goes past 70 pitches, he becomes incredibly hittable. I think before then batters have an OPS of about 600, which is impressive. After that arbitrary mark, the OPS rises to 1100. Now we are only talking about 300 PA prior and 100 PA after that mark, but it seems to indicate what I am referring to. His command fails . . . his stuff is just not good enough to keep guys guessing and missing.

I agree, when he tires he makes more mistakes and he doesn't have the stuff to make too many mistakes up in the zone. However, most of the time he's in the 6th or 7th inning when this occurs because of his ability to limit the amount of pitches he throws to each batter early in the games. This is why I think he'll settle in quite well in the backend of this rotation, most likely as a number four.

The only concern I have left is can he hold up over an entire season? In each of his full seasons in the minors, he struggled a bit in August with flyball rates increasing which too me indicates he tires a bit. It will be interesting to see how he pitches in the second half. That to me will determine his future more than anything.

[Tony-OH]

I'd probably shade more to high 4s, but this is probably a realistic scenario. I just don't think when he has a bad year (mid 5) it will be tolerated. When a guy like Cabrera threw poorly, you still saw that excellent stuff and the strikeouts were still there. When a control artist slumps . . . you see some awful results with little silver lining.

An Oriole example would be Bruce Chen in '05 and in '06.

I'm not saying that Bergie is like Chen. He certainly is not. They have different pitching approaches, but both of them did well at times due to their command.

I think the major thing you are not taking into consideration is that Bergesen is a groundball pitcher while control artists who were flyball pitchers (ie: Chen, Towers, Stephens) usually end up getting hit around. I think a good comp for Bergesen's upside potential could be a right-handed Mark Buehrle.

Command is a big part of Bergesen's game, but I think you are undervaluing the improvement of his stuff this season from his past minor league seasons. I know his fastball has more sinking movement then when I saw him in the minors and his slider has certainly improved.

[Tony-OH]

What I am saying, rather ad nauseum, is that if his command falters, he has nothing left to hang his hat on. Most pitchers are successful for a variety of reasons. If one day there is a failing in one of those skills, the others back it up and at least get one through it. If command is your sole plus skill, it becomes imperative that that one skill remains true.

Likewise, if you have one good pitch . . . you lose it . . . you have nothing to lean on.

So the movement/sink on his fastball is not a plus skill? Some people are comparing it to Halladay including Greg Zaun. I act as though Begesen is pitching with smoke and mirrors. When I watched Chen, and Mercedes, and Roberts, and Towers and Driskell and Stephens, I saw guys pitching with smoke and mirrors to get major leaguers out consistently. I truly don't see that with Bergesen and the comments we are hearing and the swings were seeing from opposing batters tell me he more than an illusion.

[Frobby]

I agree, when he tires he makes more mistakes and he doesn't have the stuff to make too many mistakes up in the zone. However, most of the time he's in the 6th or 7th inning when this occurs because of his ability to limit the amount of pitches he throws to each batter early in the games. This is why I think he'll settle in quite well in the backend of this rotation, most likely as a number four.

The only concern I have left is can he hold up over an entire season? In each of his full seasons in the minors, he struggled a bit in August with flyball rates increasing which too me indicates he tires a bit. It will be interesting to see how he pitches in the second half. That to me will determine his future more than anything.

I think these are very good points. Yeah when Bergesen loses it he can really lose it, but by then it's usually the 7th inning already. 6.52 IP per start is a very impressive number. Guthrie's never done that. Bedard never came close. You'd have to go back to Sidney Ponson in 2004 to find someone who pitched that many innings per start for us.

[DrungoHazewood]

One thing I find interesting about Bergy is he pitches like a long time vet has a very young rookie.

Here's a question: Do young pitchers with old pitcher profiles age worse than young pitchers with young pitcher profiles?

I don't know the answer, but I know that young hitters with old player's skills tend to age poorly. If you're 23, a 1B/DH, and you're slow, draw a lot of walks and hit for tons of power, you're not going to really improve in those areas. What you will do is lose more speed, spend more time at DH, probably lose some physical skills, but not have anywhere to go in knowledge and experience since you're already maxed out where those things have an impact.

On the other hand, if you're Alfonso Soriano or Sammy Sosa or somebody like that you're pretty good swinging at everything, hitting 15 homers, and playing at harder defensive position. As you (hopefully) gain plate discipline and muscle mass and knowledge you hit for more power, get a higher OBP, have the opportunity to slide down to an easier defensive position. You grow.

Maybe pitchers who don't have great stuff but really know how to pitch age poorly, too. They probably aren't going to become Greg Maddux, they're not going to lower their walk rates to 0 per nine, they're not going to allow zero homers, and their stuff will get worse over time. There's really nowhere for them to substantially grow.

I don't know, I'm just typing stuff. But I think it's interesting to consider.

[waroriole]

Here's a question: Do young pitchers with old pitcher profiles age worse than young pitchers with young pitcher profiles?

I don't know the answer, but I know that young hitters with old player's skills tend to age poorly. If you're 23, a 1B/DH, and you're slow, draw a lot of walks and hit for tons of power, you're not going to really improve in those areas. What you will do is lose more speed, spend more time at DH, probably lose some physical skills, but not have anywhere to go in knowledge and experience since you're already maxed out where those things have an impact.

On the other hand, if you're Alfonso Soriano or Sammy Sosa or somebody like that you're pretty good swinging at everything, hitting 15 homers, and playing at harder defensive position. As you (hopefully) gain plate discipline and muscle mass and knowledge you hit for more power, get a higher OBP, have the opportunity to slide down to an easier defensive position. You grow.

Maybe pitchers who don't have great stuff but really know how to pitch age poorly, too. They probably aren't going to become Greg Maddux, they're not going to lower their walk rates to 0 per nine, they're not going to allow zero homers, and their stuff will get worse over time. There's really nowhere for them to substantially grow.

I don't know, I'm just typing stuff. But I think it's interesting to consider.

Isn't possible (even likely) that Bergy's K rate increases. We've seen an improvement in his pitches from last year to this year as his fastball has alot of movement, and his slider is much improved. So could he grow substantially by improving his K rate?

[Stotle]

Just as a note, I don't think Bergesen's command will just evaporate. However, as with velocity and spin, many variables can affect command throughout the course of a game and throughout the course of a season or career. I think it would be a bit short-sighted to assume that Bergesen will not see periodic declines in his command due to these various hurdles.

As I said earlier, if he's shifted from the rotation I think it will be because there is a better arm -- I don't think it will be that he cannot be an effective starter. That said, the point I come back to (and I believe a central point to what Jon is putting forth) is that with little margin for error, everyone should be prepared to see a decrease in production.

I'm not saying it happens in July or even 2009, but it will be very difficult for him to sustain this type of production, simply because everyone gets small injuries, everyone gets tired and everyone goes through occasional spells where they aren't at their best. It shouldn't be a controversial point. A mid- to high-4 ERAish production would be just fine, and slots him in at 4/5, as many have stated looks like the best fit.

As an aside, I agree that fielders are more engaged and less likely to make mental errors when they have a pitcher that works quickly (I don't think the ball necessarily has to be put in play). I am by no means an expert, but the few opportunities I had to play college ball were earned almost exclusively off of the strength of my defense up the middle, and it was certainly a factor with every team I played on -- from HS to Legion to national travel teams. Having a pitcher who worked quickly always helped me perform at a higher level.

[crawdad]

I'm going to disagre with you a bit here. Although I agree that Bergesen's fantastic control is a big part of "game," the amount of movement on his pitches also is very big part.

Yeah, that is why I followed that sentence with the one saying that I was overstating that point. What I was wrote was to emphasize that part command plays in his game in comparison to his pitches with are largely average. It is his command that lets him be successful.

[crawdad]

????? I thought you believed that he will end up as a relief pitcher?

Correct. A control pitcher who can sit in the high 4s is also one who will find himself in the mid 5s at times. A number is not a singular entity, it is a collection of collected events. I think I explained fairly well why I think he will be shuttled back there eventually.