Schmuck Chimes in on O's Offseason

[Sports Guy]

Yes, but our future also shouldn't hinge on Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder both developing and contributing to the ML squad for example

Luckily our future, in no way shape or form, hinges on those 2 players.

We've got a core already with Jones, Wieters and Markakis etc. and a lot of young pitching talent.

So instead of trying to expand that core, it's time to support it IMO to make sure those players continue to improve and succeed.

The time to support it isn't quite here yet...at least not with poor trades and poor FA signings.

If we keep waiting to see if we can keep adding younger talent to that core, then we may miss out on a opportunity to compete with that core of talent as it exists now. The clock is ticking on the Markakis and Roberts contracts and Jones is also a FA after 2013.[

This is your problem...WE ARE NOT GOING TO CONTEND IN 2010!!!! Its not going to happen...So, you either accept that fact or go root for another team.

The goal next year is to get into that 78-85 win range, evaluate the young talent we have and then go from there.

[JTrea81]

This is your problem...WE ARE NOT GOING TO CONTEND IN 2010!!!! Its not going to happen...So, you either accept that fact or go root for another team.

The goal next year is to get into that 78-85 win range, evaluate the young talent we have and then go from there.

I realize that but we also aren't going to contend in 2011 unless we make some major moves this offseason IMO. So that brings us to 2012 which leaves us two years for Jones and a declining Roberts and three years with Markakis under contract.

We need to start ramping up this offseason as we can't add all those pieces needed next offseason, or else the window to compete with that core of players that we have now is going to continue to shrink.

[ejf1025]

Oh look...it's the same debate....THE SAME DEBATE!! EVERY FREAKIN THREAD!!

"We need to support them"

"We will, give them a chance. We don't know what we have yet, too soon"

"Time is now, spend money. Can't rely on younger players"

"We have to either way you slice it, why take on bad contracts"

"Waiting on them means we won't sniff contention til at least 2012--I don't want to throw away two years."

Over and over and over and over and over.

What I would give to get this board back to original thought and new discussion.

[Sports Guy]

I realize that but we also aren't going to contend in 2011 unless we make some major moves this offseason IMO. So that brings us to 2012 which leaves us two years for Jones and a declining Roberts and three years with Markakis under contract.

We need to start ramping up this offseason as we can't add all those pieces needed next offseason, or else the window to compete with that core of players that we have now is going to continue to shrink.

This is probably the most incorrect statement you have ever made on this board..which is saying a lot.

[tvz1997]

Here we go again.

There has been a lot of good discussion in the past 24 hrs. I'll remember it fondly.

[Lucky Jim]

Just a word on Fangraphs' methodoolgy. They derive dollar value by multiplying Wins over Replacement by a multiplier designed to reflect the value of one WAR. Over the years, it has always seemed to me that the multiplier they use results in most players being valued too highly. Also, I'm not sure I agree with the way they weight defense vs. offense, though I can't really explain what is wrong with what they are doing. In any event, in my book, Beltre didn't earn his $65 mm in Seattle, and it wasn't that close.

Well, the first sentence is accurate. But absent any substantive critique of their methodology, I think it's tough to take "your book" all that seriously. Why is the multiplier valuing too highly? Why is defense weighted incorrectly, in your estimation?

I don't think that Fangraphs should be treated as gospel - it's essentially a rough, but best, accounting - but I likewise don't think unsupported assertions of unspecified flaws are much of a rebuttal. It seems to me that you're basing your idea of what a contract is worth on how teams have valued players in the past - and your suspicion of defensive value (and perhaps love of big offense) means that you simply don't value the two components in an objective way. Perhaps you're valuation is anchored by years of inefficient or blind-spotted valuations by teams around the league, who struggled to apply dollars to things with real value, and who threw too much money at things with artificial or elusive or non-predictive value (BA and RBI).

Beltre certainly wasn't exactly what the Mariners had hoped - but that doesn't mean Beltre didn't earn his $65m. His performance was somewhat erratic, and even though his home/road splits before this year pointed to a home park suppressive effect, his components were erratic regardless, with fluctuating LD% and GB%. An Adrian Beltre who hits too many GBs isn't going to be an effective hitter. Further, though his glove was, largely, exceptional, he did put up one poor year in the field and had another "very good but not great" year among his five.

On the other hand, it's not entirely fair to say he didn't field as well in Seattle as he did in LA - there's little question that he's still an elite level glove.

In the end, perhaps Seattle and Frobby feel that Seattle got the wrong end of the Beltre deal - that somehow $13m a year meant that they were entitled to an OPS of .950 and a UZR of 15. But let's be clear: Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff were a combined -.9 WAR this year, for a total value of $-1.7m at a cost of something like $16m.

In the worst hitting year of his life, Beltre was still worth something like $10+m. On a short contract, I think it's safe to say that Beltre's baseline value is somewhere around $10m. If the asking price is floating around there, it's a pretty high-reward gamble.

[JTrea81]

This is probably the most incorrect statement you have ever made on this board..which is saying a lot.

You think MacPhail will be able to add all the parts we need to compete in 2011 over one offseason?

Haven't you seen the way the guy works? He took a year to address the SS situation properly after trading Tejada, for example.

He's too slow and methodical to accomplish all that needs to be done to turn us into a competitor next offseason IMO which is why he needs to start adding parts now.

[TonySoprano]

Time is at a premium.

[Lucky Jim]

You think MacPhail will be able to add all the parts we need to compete in 2011 over one offseason?

Haven't you seen the way the guy works? He took a year and a half to address the SS situation properly, for example.

He's too slow and methodical to accomplish all that needs to be done to turn us into a competitor next offseason IMO which is why he needs to start adding parts now.

How many parts do we know we're definitely going to need in 2011?

[JTrea81]

How many parts do we know we're definitely going to need in 2011?

We will always need good starting pitching regardless, and we need to consider anything Snyder and Bell will give us offensively will be a bonus IMO.

Taking those things into account, you add the pieces that are available to you, while you may have less competition to get them.

[Lucky Jim]

We will always need good starting pitching regardless, and we need to consider anything Snyder and Bell will give us will be a bonus IMO.

Taking those things into account, you add the pieces that are available to you, while you may have less competition to get them.

That's not what I asked. I don't care about your "opinion" about Snyder and Bell as prospects. What do we definitely need next year?

[JTrea81]

That's not what I asked. I don't care about your "opinion" about Snyder and Bell as prospects. What do we definitely need next year?

Offense and pitching, the more the merrier.

The bottom line is we need as much talent as we can get.

[Lucky Jim]

Offense and pitching, the more the merrier.

The bottom line is we need as much talent as we can get.

Be more specific. What positions do we definitely need for 2011. What kind of pitchers do we definitely need for 2011.

[Hank Scorpio]

Be more specific. What positions do we definitely need for 2011. What kind of pitchers do we definitely need for 2011.

I see where you going here.

Fabulous stuff.

[TGO]

Offense and pitching, the more the merrier.

The bottom line is we need as much talent as we can get.

This is like saying we need oxygen to survive. Have you filled every square foot of surface space in your house with oxygen tanks?