Schmuck Chimes in on O's Offseason

[Sports Guy]

Do you think Glaus would be a better offensive force than Bell? I am ok with whomever because our young pitchers will likely have an up and down year. That team would have the potential to win the division in 2 or 3 of the 6 divisions in the game.

Glaus is just a stop gap for Bell.

[mweb]

Go get Beltre or Glaus and Delgado or Nick Johnson.

Sign Harden to 2/18 deal with incentives.

Go get Hardy, using Guthrie as main piece.

C- Wieters

1st- Delgado/Johnson

2nd- BRob

SS- Hardy

3rd- Beltre/Glaus

LF- Pie

CF- Jones

RF- Markakis

DH- Reimold

Going into the season, the plan is to play Reimold in LF 70% of the time against lefties and anytime you want to rest Nick(Nolan goes to RF) or Jones(pie to CF) and when Pie needs a day off, even against a righty.

Matusz, Harden, BB, Tillman and Arrieta.

Koji, DH, JJ, Hendrickson, Mickolio...Open competition between Meredith, Albers, Ray, Perez and Berken for the final 2 spots.

That's actually a pretty good team if Harden and the corner guys stay healthy and perform well.

If we were co-gm's, this would be a nice merger of our ideas/wants.

[Sports Guy]

If we were co-gm's, this would be a nice merger of our ideas/wants.

There is a lot to like with that plan:

1) No bad contracts IMO.

2) Not blocking anyone.

3) Addresses areas of need while not hurting our draft or organization long term.

4) Still allows Bell and Snyder to come up later this year if they deserve it..Trades, releases, etc...could all happen.

5) Still goes with the plan of rebuilding but definitely makes the team better and heading towards bigger things in 2010.

6) Gets the fans excited..at least for the most part...Could be a team that gives this organization a lot of momentum heading into the 2011 season in terms of MASN, season ticket sales, etc...Perhaps open up the checkbook next winter if needs be.

[mweb]

There is a lot to like with that plan:

1) No bad contracts IMO.

2) Not blocking anyone.

3) Addresses areas of need while not hurting our draft or organization long term.

4) Still allows Bell and Snyder to come up later this year if they deserve it..Trades, releases, etc...could all happen.

5) Still goes with the plan of rebuilding but definitely makes the team better and heading towards bigger things in 2010.

6) Gets the fans excited..at least for the most part...Could be a team that gives this organization a lot of momentum heading into the 2011 season in terms of MASN, season ticket sales, etc...Perhaps open up the checkbook next winter if needs be.

Yep, plus Harden and the stopgags could end up being used to bring back some good young talent if they stay healthy and play like you'd expect. Obviously that would depend on how the team is doing and if prospects are ready to take over.

As I've said before, I think this team is in a good position to take some short-term potential high reward risks like Harden and Johnson. If they don't work out, it's not a big deal, they won't hurt us in the future. However, if they do work out, they can be important players on our first contender in forever or be used to bring in more talent.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I agree. That guy gets his pay and then you can forget about it. If you all were frustrated by our last catcher then you will love Beltre. My 9 year old has a better work ethic than that guy. He is the classic example of a guy who has all the tools to be an All Star only to be slightly above average in a way that gets him paid. I'd rather give the job to Bell outright than to sign Beltre. If they were to sign Beltre it had better be a one year deal in the $6 Million range plus another $3-$4 Million in incentives.

Except that he earned his contract over it's full run...

Should we just ask McLovin to automatically link this when his name is brought up this off-season? Just to get it out of the way?

[24fps]

Even the good stuff he has to offer comes mostly from his comrades at the Sun. If there were no blogs from Roch, Melewski, and Fordin, Schmuck may be worth the read, but now he is more of a temperature gauge on the sentiments of the fairly well-informed.

When I was a less-informed fan, I really enjoyed reading his stuff. Not so much anymore. And his Fact/My Take columns do nothing for me except remind me of the far more insightful and wittier columns by Eisenburg.

This is so good Oscar Wilde could have written it.

[GoldGlove21]

Except that he earned his contract over it's full run...

Should we just ask McLovin to automatically link this when his name is brought up this off-season? Just to get it out of the way?

He may have earned his contract and I wouldn't be against a one year deal, but I do not think we are going to land him on a one year deal. I would imagine someone would give him at least a one year deal with an option of some sort. Maybe the Twins or Cardinals?

[Tx Oriole]

It's the safe route. You've got to admit MacPhail is going to have to work some magic to get an impact bat via trade without trading any of the core players.

I don't think he can do it, as that kind of thinking simply isn't realistic. It's a lot harder to deal for star player than to try to trade a star player. He's going to have to give up some pieces that he probably would rather keep to get the kind of talent that we need via trade.

MacPhail is either going to have to spend some major cash or trade off some of our young talent. Otherwise we are just going to keep on treading water.

Would you really want to tarde one of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta for a major bat like AGon? And of course jsut one of those pitchers won't get you AGon. It is taking a big chance moving some of the core plaeyrs for a guy like AGon. I know you have to deal from your strength to get better but just the thought that we wuld ahve to lose on of the top pitchers leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

[Tx Oriole]

This whole post is 100% spot on Jtrea...It just isn't realistic to think they can get a big bat without trading anyone of significance.

I mean, in the past you have had the chance to obtain some expensive contracts as dumps...That doesn't really seem to be the case this year, at least in positions of need.

BTW, I hate the idea of them ruling out Reimold to DH...If you have Pie and with what he showed last year, Pie has to start a lot.

The idea of no in terms of moving Reimold is so short sighted.

I agree with you on Reimold. Thye should move him to help the team. That is DH. Oh well.

[NewMarketSean]

I knew as much before I read the article as I did after I read it.

[clapdiddy]

The name that was popular in the late-season rumor mill was first baseman Nick Johnson, though I don't know whether you could call him an upgrade over what the Orioles were working with before they traded Aubrey Huff.

This quote stuck out to me. How Schmuck could say that Johnson wouldn't be an upgrade to Huff is beyond me. Now, if he mentioned the injury factor, I could almost understand where he is coming from. This statement, taken by itself, leads me to believe that Schmuck doesn't have a clue.

[Frobby]

Glaus is just a stop gap for Bell.

I see Glaus as potentially more than that. I see him initially as a stop gap for Bell, and then subsequently as a guy who might get 400-500 AB a season at 1B/3B/DH. Importantly, Glaus has been tremendous in his career vs. LHP (.277/.399/.558), which is where Bell has a glaring weakness and where the team has been very weak. Of course, he's a high-risk acquisition due to his injury history. But there's also the potential for high reward.

[DrungoHazewood]

This quote stuck out to me. How Schmuck could say that Johnson wouldn't be an upgrade to Huff is beyond me. Now, if he mentioned the injury factor, I could almost understand where he is coming from. This statement, taken by itself, leads me to believe that Schmuck doesn't have a clue.

Nick Johnson would be more valuable in 50 games than the 2009 version of Huff would be in 162. Huff was sub-replacement, so Johnson for 50 games plus the real Michael Aubrey (essentially, Aubrey Huff) for 112 would be a couple win improvement.

[TiredofLosing20]

It's not "treading water" to have a team that starts out with Bergesen, Matusz, Tillman, Wieters, Reimold, and Pie all in place to start ST, and pretty soon adds Snyder, Bell, and Arrieta. That's 9 key guys who hadn't even seen OPACY just a measly 7 months ago. Pause for just a sec and reflect on that: 9 key young guys who were not a Baltimore Oriole just 7 months ago. To say that's treading water is goofy. This is not just about adding up anticipated WAR numbers. The Orioles are gonna rapidly become their team, they're gonna start acting like they own the place, and it's all gonna feel different. AM already said his main shopping is gonna come after he sees what happens with these guys, because he needs to know that before he goes shopping.

I understand why folks want another hitter. I understand why folks want another pitcher. But I also understand that AM will have a lot more clarity about exactly what he needs to do after he sees (and we all see) how things evolve with that crew. So, I expect that whatever he does between now and then isn't gonna be a very big deal, and that's mainly because it's not a big-deal situation just yet. So, if you're dreaming about big dramatic moves, well, good luck with that. There are good reasons why there likely won't be flashy high-drama moves.

Completely agree Rshack. I firmly believe that we will know a lot more about what we have after this season. I think it is at that point that we will start looking at "big dramatic" moves. To do it now just doesn't seem prudent.

[Frobby]

Except that he earned his contract over it's full run...

Should we just ask McLovin to automatically link this when his name is brought up this off-season? Just to get it out of the way?

This assumes you accept the Fangraphs valuation methodology as the gospel. I think it's safe to say that when the Mariners ponied up $65 mm over 5 years for Beltre, they thought they were getting more than a .750-.760ish OPS hitter. And his glove has been very good (which is what is driving Fangraphs' valuation) but not as good as it was when he was on the Dodgers.

Just a word on Fangraphs' methodoolgy. They derive dollar value by multiplying Wins over Replacement by a multiplier designed to reflect the value of one WAR. Over the years, it has always seemed to me that the multiplier they use results in most players being valued too highly. Also, I'm not sure I agree with the way they weight defense vs. offense, though I can't really explain what is wrong with what they are doing. In any event, in my book, Beltre didn't earn his $65 mm in Seattle, and it wasn't that close.

That said, I don't know enough about Beltre to know whether the gripes about his work ethic are valid. If we signed him, he'd certainly bring a very good glove. It's hard to know what he'd bring with his bat. He's been anywhere between decent and awful in his years as a Mariner.