Why are so many posters fooled by Coors?

[El Gordo]

Please explain what he did after he was traded to St. Louis last season. He as an absolute BEAST. I'm not discounting the Coors effect, but to group Holliday in the same category as Atkins and to say that he's "not that good" is a real stretch.

I'm not trying to explain it, but I wonder what batting behind Pujols would do for Izzy's numbers? :laughlol:

[ChaosLex]

What does Frobby have against the Silver Bullet? :angryfire:

[RandyM]

Atkins: .892 OPS at home, .735 away

Holliday: 1.052 OPS at home, .808 away

Helton: 1.100 OPS at home, .885 away

Do people just not get it? Matt Holiday is not that good. Atkins isn't good at all. Helton, well he's been very good, just not as good as his overall numbers suggest.

For now, just forget Holliday. I wouldn't trade either Markakis or Jones even up for him. I'd have to think twice about Reimold or Pie.

These are a couple stats why Beane traded for him.

Might some of us be looking to general by just looking at the splits?

http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/Why-Matt-Holliday-Might-Still-Rake-in-Oakland-BBD588.htm

Blogger Jeff Fletcher argues that Holliday is hurt on the road by not seeing pitches that break normally in the thin Coors Field air. But as Holliday got further into his road trips and adjusted to the normal action of breaking pitches, his numbers improved significantly. Here's the chart:

Matt Holliday's career road numbers

First 2 games of a trip: .277 BA/.472 SLG

3rd game on: .281/.446

4th game on: .281/.458

5th game on: .291/.483

6th game on: .305/.522

7th game on: .321/.567

8th game on: .356/.683

So you might want to go the extra buck on Holliday after all.

[mweb]

CHONE currently has his projection at 883 OPS - and because he hasn't signed with anyone that is for a neutral park. If he were to come to Baltimore (which I don't think he will be) that number would be adjusted somewhere along the lines of +?%, or:

+1% = 892

+2% = 901

+3% = 909

+4% = 918

+5% = 927

That's fair. I think he may be a .900 OPS guy the first year or two, but would likely average something like .865 for the 6 years.

[Dr. Andrews]

Holliday is being vastly overrated due to the weakness of this year's free agent class. Do we all forget that last year the man couldn't produce in the AL...and only found success when hitting behind the best hitter in baseball (Pujols)? I'll echo your statement, Frobby, I don't think he's that good...definitely not 100 Million dollars good...I'd rather wait for next offseason, give the money to any of Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Brandon Webb...you know...someone who could help improve the fact that we were the worst pitching team in baseball last year. Just a thought.

[TonySoprano]

Holliday in American League ballparks, 123 G, 528 PA, 461 AB

.282/.369/.453/.822

In National league ballparks (excl. Coors) 368G, 1575 PA, 1407 AB

.294/.363/.483/.846

Yeah, he's not that good;)

then again....

Markakis away from Camden Yards 6 years/ $66.1M

.290/.372 /.454/.826

[amateurfan]

All but five teams were better offensively at home than away: Padres, Indians, Dodgers, Mariners, Blue Jays.

Some teams had little difference, but most were significantly better at home. Most teams have a huge advantage at home in general.

When I look at Holiday and see an .891 away OPS in 2008, I'm impressed. That's awesome. He's a fantastic hitter. Too bad he doesn't play 1B.

[Oriolidae85]

Matt Holliday had a .860 OPS in Oakland in the cleanup spot including one horrid month of April.

When he played at Busch which is not a hitter's paradise, he had a .377/.442/.677/1.119 line.

While Coors might have inflated his stats, don't forget they are using a humidor there now to reduce the park effect.

Pujols probably helped that out to say the least...Holliday is a good hitter, but not for $20M per year.

I'm not trying to explain it, but I wonder what batting behind Pujols would do for Izzy's numbers? :laughlol:

How about Markakis hitting in front of Pujols?

2012

[SrMeowMeow]

Re: Atkins..

In the last 3 seasons, Atkins has accomplished the following:

810 at-bats on the road, with a .696 OPS. This included 32 homers, 32 doubles.

760 at-bats at home, with a .868 OPS. This included 23 homers, and 47 doubles.

453 at-bats vs Left-handed Pitching, with a .856 OPS.

This tells me that while he was a better hitter at-home in Coors Field, his power basically translated everywhere. It also tells me that he could help balance the O's lineup against lefties.

The O's did not sign Atkins with the belief he would come close to replicating his 2006 season, where he had a .965 OPS, a .329 average, 29 homers, and 120 rbi.

They are signing Atkins with the belief that if he does not have to play in the National League West, and the pitcher friendly stadiums of LA, SD, and San Francisco; that he can rebound and out produce what Mora provided in 2009.

A 2010 season of a .750 OPS, 20 homers, 80 rbi would be a realistic expectation to me.

Re: Holliday, he has a .933 career OPS, which included a .909 mark in 2009, with zero home games in Coors Field. Do I think he is the elite of the elite? No, I do not. However, your comments are too far to the other-side.

This is a really misleading analysis. Atkins has been losing power every single year, and loses a ton of power on the road (.280 ISO in Coors vs. .159 elsewhere). Saying he had a .696 OPS on the road (awful) that "included" 32 HR and 32 2B (over almost three seasons) basically shows that he's bad on the road.

I will take the under on a .750 OPS. I think he will either get "fixed" in some dramatic way, or struggle badly for half a season and then get benched or cut.

[Lucky Jim]

Don't get me wrong. I generally think it's a bad idea to give a 6-year deal to anyone over the age of say 27. If the Orioles were a little further along in their success cycle than they currently are I might be in favor of signing Holliday, but I wouldn't sign him right now for what he figures to be asking.

Having said that, I certainly won't get upset and POd because they signed him.

Yeah. My take all along, too.

[clapdiddy]

Holliday is being vastly overrated due to the weakness of this year's free agent class. Do we all forget that last year the man couldn't produce in the AL...and only found success when hitting behind the best hitter in baseball (Pujols)? I'll echo your statement, Frobby, I don't think he's that good...definitely not 100 Million dollars good...I'd rather wait for next offseason, give the money to any of Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Brandon Webb...you know...someone who could help improve the fact that we were the worst pitching team in baseball last year. Just a thought.

I can't say I disagree with you, but you are missing an extremely important point.

There's a very good chance that none of these guys will come here. A 2010 free agent list is like knowing who's going to be in the NFL playoffs from year to year. You just don't know.

[SrMeowMeow]

Another thing: I'm pretty sure the recent interest in Holliday is a result of boredom. Smart posters who would have (and in many cases actually did) dismissed Holliday out of hand at the beginning of the offseason as someone who doesn't fit a need and is overpriced due to inflated stats are now slowly convincing themselves that he's a good idea. This is dangerous.

Bottom line:

If he's cheap, he's a good buy.

That's it.

[colorado_oriole]

I guess the only thing to do is wait until the season starts and see who is right. I think sometimes none of you guy's will be happy until we match the BRS and NYY penny for penny and then see who is better good thing some of you guy's aren't the GM and Director of Scouting. You can use the same flawed analysis on every player in MLB when comparing home vs away stats so why bother.

I would ask this one question how much are you guys willing to spend on salaries in order to compete?? And please don't say whatever it takes that is a cop out.????

[bmorebirds_24]

Meaning what? That if I think Atkins is a suitable one year risk at 3rd, I am drinking the kool-aid?

Fantastic analysis. Let's say that the O's go to camp, and Keith Law is right; that there has been a noticeable deterioration in bat-speed for Atkins. Let's say you get to the end of May, and Atkins is not producing at-all.

If at that time, the O's drop Atkins (at-least from an everyday spot in the lineup) and promote Bell to start June, what have they lost?

I was not directing anything towards you. I was mainly talking about the poster who said he would probably not trade Reimold or Pie for Holliday. I just don't get what people think. I guess the Eggnogg is a little stronger for some this time of year?

[Three Run Homer]

Meaning what? That if I think Atkins is a suitable one year risk at 3rd, I am drinking the kool-aid?

Fantastic analysis. Let's say that the O's go to camp, and Keith Law is right; that there has been a noticeable deterioration in bat-speed for Atkins. Let's say you get to the end of May, and Atkins is not producing at-all.

If at that time, the O's drop Atkins (at-least from an everyday spot in the lineup) and promote Bell to start June, what have they lost?

This is exactly the logic that led to Adam Eaton being in the starting rotation at the start of the year. "He'll probably suck, but we have someone better coming up anyway." Why would we want the sequel to Adam Eaton in our everyday lineup?

And Atkins could easily wind up as a worse signing than Eaton. At least Eaton only cost the O's the league minimum. Atkins is getting over 4 freaking million dollars guaranteed! I just can't get my head around that number...one of the worst players in baseball last year, and he gets over 4 million!