Why are so many posters fooled by Coors?

[TyCobb]

What you aren't seeing is the talent Pie has...both what he showed at young ages in the minors and what he showed last year after adjusting his swing and getting consistent playing time.

No one is saying that Pie is as good as Holliday right now..But if Pie is a 3-4 win player and Holliday is a 5-6 win player, you are paying an awful lot of money for not much difference in wins...plus Holliday is getting older and will likely decline some, where as you feel Pie should be getting better...So, in 2-3 years, Pie could actually be the more valuable guy.

If Holliday's defense continues to slip in LF, his value will go down more...If his OPS just goes to 860, with average or worse defense, all of a sudden he isn't really any better than a 750-775 OPS Pie who plays GG defense.

The best defensive LF over the past 3 years has been Carl Crawford. He had 36 UZR for those 3 years. That breaks down to 1.2 WAR a season just for his fielding.

Give Pie Crawford defensive WAR (1.2) add Replacement value (1.8) subtract positional Value (.5) you get 2.5 WAR.

So for Pie to be worth 3-4 WAR he needs to bat 5-15 Runs Above Average.

Last year Markakis only batted 11 runs above average and he had a .293/.347/.453 line.

Chances Pie has 3-4 WAR next season is very slim.

[SrMeowMeow]

Lets start with the fact that for his career he has a .811 OPS.

Again, I fully acknowledge his power has been in decline. Though it is 3 straight years, not 4 as you state above.

When you are looking at a 30 year-old, with 2,800 Major League at-bats, I think it is helpful to throw out the extremes.

I look at 2006, and 2009 as the outliers, and his 2007-08 production being a more accurate representation of who he is as a player.

2007: .853 OPS (.773 away), 25 homers, 111 rbi.

2008: .780 OPS (.691 away), 21 homers, 99 rbi.

.853 + .780 = 1,633 / 2 = .816 which would be the high-end of what I think he is capable of producing.

While .773 + .691 = 1,464 / 2 = .732 which would represent what I think is his likely low-end level production.

.816 + .732 = 1,548 / 2 = .774 which is what I would expect him to produce if playing in a vacuum.

So, if I think .774 is a more accurate representation of who he is... I than have to account for things you mentioned... going to the AL East, being away from Coors... I can also balance that without not having to play division games in SF, SD, LA, and Arizona. I am not sure how Arizona plays, but I know that the other 3 are pitcher-friendly parks.

Once all of that has been accounted for... I think pegging him for 61 OPS points below his career averages, and expecting him to to reach 20 homers, and 80 rbi as he has done 3 of the past 4 seasons is a realistic expectation.

That said, I can understand why you would think my expectation of him having an OPS 100 points higher than his 2009 levels, away from Coors as unlikely.

No offense intended, but this is the kind of surface level analysis I hope MacPhail didn't make when he signed Atkins - that Atkins has a) flashed superstar talent, a b) good career OPS, and is c) coming off a down year.

Take a look at Mike Lowell in his last year as a Marlin - that is a player that should be expected to come back. Now look at Atkins. There is no indication that last year was a fluke. As (I think) RVAbird corrected me the other day, his low BABIP in 2009 is not bad luck, it's due to an awful LD%. Atkins totally lost it at the plate in 2009; he didn't just get some bad breaks on balls in play. Now we're hoping that he can do all of the following:

1. Fix whatever ruined his 2009 season LD% (which was NOT in decline and just fell off a cliff)
2. Get his power back which has been in decline since 2006 (and hope it's something fixable as well and not just early physical decline)
3. Hope he can hit outside of Coors
4. Hope he doesn't struggle too much against a better league and division

And if he does all that, ALL THAT, he might be league average. Woo.

[RVAbird]

No offense intended, but this is the kind of surface level analysis I hope MacPhail didn't make when he signed Atkins - that Atkins has a) flashed superstar talent, a b) good career OPS, and is c) coming off a down year.

Take a look at Mike Lowell in his last year as a Marlin - that is a player that should be expected to come back. Now look at Atkins. There is no indication that last year was a fluke. As (I think) RVAbird corrected me the other day, his low BABIP in 2009 is not bad luck, it's due to an awful LD%. Atkins totally lost it at the plate in 2009; he didn't just get some bad breaks on balls in play. Now we're hoping that he can do all of the following:

1. Fix whatever ruined his 2009 season LD% (which was NOT in decline and just fell off a cliff)
2. Get his power back which has been in decline since 2006 (and hope it's something fixable as well and not just early physical decline)
3. Hope he can hit outside of Coors
4. Hope he doesn't struggle too much against a better league and division

And if he does all that, ALL THAT, he might be league average. Woo.

Yeah, that was me. And I agree with this post.

Stoner, I really respect you as a poster but I think you're off here. To say that one should ignore a player's "extremes" when that player has clearly been trending downward is being willfully obtuse. I think you know better than that, but you're rationalizing.

I think Atkins is poised for a bit of a comeback from last year's numbers, but we can't throw them out the window. He wasn't particularly unlucky last year. All signs point to a decline in bat speed and bat control.

I've been solidly meh about the Atkins deal, as it wasn't a horrible contract and it should be short term anyway. There's some upside there, but it's not a safe bet. It's whatever.

[RVAbird]

I guess that is why they play the games, we will see what happens on the field.

It is possible that with a vocal percentage of O's fans being down on Atkins (or at-least ambivalent) that I am going to far to the other-side of selling the positives.

In that sense, you might be right that I am rationalizing too much.

Still, as I have said several times in the thread, if I am wrong it will be shown early. If Law is right and the bat-speed is gone, it will show in camp, and be further exposed with regular playing-time to start the year.

By the end of May it will be clear if Atkins is going to keep his job as the everyday, or be replaced by Bell to start June.

I really do not think the contract can go wrong for the O's.

I can't argue with much of this. I really have no strong feelings toward the deal either way. I was holding out hope for a better stop gap, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn't mean much. We didn't give up any talent and we didn't hinder ourselves by entering into a large financial commitment.

I think there's a wide variance of reasonable outcomes for Atkins next year. He'll be interesting to watch. I wouldn't be surprised by anything from a .650 OPS over 2 months to an .800 OPS through September. My only qualm was with the mindset of ignoring an "extreme" when it is indicative of a trend. I don't rule out the possibility of a rejuvenated Atkins, I just don't see any reason to expect it. Additionally, I think willfully ignoring certain sets of data leads us on a slippery slope toward giving bigger contracts to more undeserving players because they've had success in the past.

But I know that you're throwing more scrutinizing risk analysis to the wind because, in this particular case, the risk isn't very big. That's fine. I just wouldn't advocate ignoring downward trends by considering them outliers. I'd imagine that in most cases (where the stakes are higher) you'd agree.

[Sports Guy]

The thing that is so bothersome, that doesn't come across in Chris's analysis is the huge decline in LD%...That is a bad sign.

Now, it was still very good before last year...Yes, it did drop in 2008 from 2007 but it was still solid in 2008.

So, why the huge drop? Was he hurt? Is he just done?

Who knows...I agree that its not a terrible contract....And, as Chris said, if he sucks, you just bring Bell up anyway.

I didn't really like the signing but agree that it is a "meh" signing. He does represent some upside with the bat and that is why its a "meh" signing and not an awful signing.

[mweb]

The best defensive LF over the past 3 years has been Carl Crawford. He had 36 UZR for those 3 years. That breaks down to 1.2 WAR a season just for his fielding.

Give Pie Crawford defensive WAR (1.2) add Replacement value (1.8) subtract positional Value (.5) you get 2.5 WAR.

So for Pie to be worth 3-4 WAR he needs to bat 5-15 Runs Above Average.

Last year Markakis only batted 11 runs above average and he had a .293/.347/.453 line.

Chances Pie has 3-4 WAR next season is very slim.

I don't think it's very slim at all. I think he can put up those types of offensive numbers if not better next year. Long-term, I think he has a good chance of being at least a 3 WAR player. A few extra wins next year isn't that important anyway.

[Sports Guy]

So how come so few people were concerned about the drop in Hardy's LD%? It is quite possible that Atkins's drop last year was a one-year outlier. If you forget 03 and 04 (when he played a combined 40 games) his worst LD% prior to last season was 22%. My guess (hunch?) is that his 2010 LD% will be closer to 22% than 16%. How much closer, who knows.

By the way, that low LD% of 22% is higher than Hardy's career high LD%. Not to mention that Hardy's LD% has actually dropped every single season of his career (at a similar rate of regression, no less).

I think all of the people who wanted to go after him mentioned that as a potential issue.

[SrMeowMeow]

So how come so few people were concerned about the drop in Hardy's LD%? It is quite possible that Atkins's drop last year was a one-year outlier. If you forget 03 and 04 (when he played a combined 40 games) his worst LD% prior to last season was 22%. My guess (hunch?) is that his 2010 LD% will be closer to 22% than 16%. How much closer, who knows.

By the way, that low LD% of 22% is higher than Hardy's career high LD%. Not to mention that Hardy's LD% has actually dropped every single season of his career (at a similar rate of regression, no less).

I guess my final word on Atkins would be that of course there's a chance he bounces back, because there always is for any player, but if ever a 30-year-old looked done, it's him. There's no downside to the signing for me because it's not my money and I assume it won't hurt us, since we did it, but I see only a slim slim slim slim chance of Atkins giving us anything.

[Sports Guy]

They didn't make nearly the stink of it that they are with Atkins. Everyone seems to be convinced that Hardy is going to suddenly turn it around offensively, whereas very few think Atkins is capable of bouncing back (which is my point).

Also, I don't recall seeing it mentioned all that often.

Well Hardy is younger....Hardy was more likely to be a long term option...And Hardy is at the premium position, where you are happier to take a bigger risk IMO.

That being said, the LD% was brought up plenty.

Atkins represents some upside...He has some talent and his LD% drop is really only a one year thing.

So, its worth a try...I am meh on the signing but do agree that the offensive upside is there.

[mweb]

They didn't make nearly the stink of it that they are with Atkins. Everyone seems to be convinced that Hardy is going to suddenly turn it around offensively, whereas very few think Atkins is capable of bouncing back (which is my point).

Also, I don't recall seeing it mentioned all that often.

It was mentioned a good amount, however not so much by his most avid supporters who largely dismissed it as not being that important.

[SrMeowMeow]

They didn't make nearly the stink of it that they are with Atkins. Everyone seems to be convinced that Hardy is going to suddenly turn it around offensively, whereas very few think Atkins is capable of bouncing back (which is my point).

Also, I don't recall seeing it mentioned all that often.

The thing about Hardy is even with his fall-off-a-cliff batting in 2009, he was still worth 1.4 wins. Atkins was -0.4. If Hardy was/is unfixable, he's still an excellent defensive shortstop who's close to league average. If Atkins is unfixable, he's below replacement level. Not to mention Hardy is three years younger. They're just different situations.

[Sports Guy]

The thing about Hardy is even with his fall-off-a-cliff batting in 2009, he was still worth 1.4 wins. Atkins was -0.4. If Hardy was/is unfixable, he's still an excellent defensive shortstop who's close to league average. If Atkins is unfixable, he's below replacement level. Not to mention Hardy is three years younger. They're just different situations.

Right...Hardy had a terrible offensive year but at SS, even if he just gives a 700-725 OPS, he would still be better than league average because of his glove.

BTW, I don't see anyone who supported Hardy jumping up and down and complaing about the Atkins signing.

[RShack]

I don't disagree with the last part. I have to tell you, though, that the Hardy is younger argument is terrible vis a vie LD% when you consider his rate has dropped 9 to 10% every single season of his career. Again, I'm not arguing Hardy isn't the better player, only that I'm more concerned about his drop in LD% than that of Atkins.

Why would that happen?

[tilgaham]

Orioles Home/Away OPS Splits For 2009

1. Matt Wieters Home OPS: .813 Road OPS: .635
   
2. Aubrey Huff Home OPS: .784 Road OPS: .603
   
3. Brian Roberts Home OPS: .766 Road OPS: .850
   
4. Melvin Mora Home OPS: .819 Road OPS: .546
   
5. Noland Reimold Home OPS: .873 Road OPS: .798
   
6. Adam Jones Home OPS: .811 Road OPS: .772
   
7. Nick Markakis Home OPS: .812 Road OPS: .787
   
8. Luke Scott Home OPS: .925 Road OPS: .727
   
9. Cesar Itzsturis Home OPS: .773 Road OPS: .468
   

Matt Holiday couldn't touch some of these awful H/A OPS splits. I don't understand why people freak out about his Home/Away stats so much. His ROAD Ops for 2009 would be a large upgrade over what we had.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-reference.com

[SrMeowMeow]

I tend to agree with your analysis. My issue is all the consternation over his LD%. If it were a continuing, long term trend (as it is for Hardy) I'd be more concerned. It was a one season drop (technically two years, but the 07 to 08 "drop" was close enough to call it statistically insignificant). Jeter went from 22% in 06 down to 18% in 08, but rebounded last year. Markakis went from 21% in 08 down to less than 17% in 09, but I don't see too many people concerned about that.

As I said, I'll bet his LD% will be closer to 22% than 16% in 2010.

This was my gut call in my Atkins post, but RVAbird took me to task for it. His point is that LD% is in the batter's control and his LD% dropping means he was doing something wrong. I don't think 16% is just the first step in a downward trend for Atkins' LD%, but I do think it represents a serious concern and is almost definitely a result of one of four things:

• A serious mechanical flaw
• "Pressing" due to his slump
• An undisclosed or unknown (as of now) injury
• Physical (meaning either strength or hand/eye coordination) decline to the point where he simply cannot hit major league pitching anymore

Right now, I have no idea what's causing it, but it's a huge red flag and 6% is well outside the realm of random error. Anyway, his LD% is the icing on the cake of Atkins being bad.

As a caveat, there is a reasonable chance (I have no idea what the chance is, but it exists) that Atkins shakes everything off and hits a ton. His career is just enigmatic enough, and holds just enough promise, that he could just need a new perspective or a change of scenery. Basically, I hope Atkins proves me wrong.