Why are so many posters fooled by Coors?

[RVAbird]

Really good discussion in this thread.

1970, your points are well taken. It's not that unusual for a hitter to see a 5-6 percent fluctuation in LD% from one year to the next without a steady decline thereafter.

When Sr. Meow Meow and I originally discussed this topic, my main qualm was with the idea that, because Atkins' LD% was so far off from his yearly averages (as well as his BABIP), we should expect it to normalize.

I considered it a logical fallacy because:

P1. Atkins' LD% was significantly lower in 2009 than usual

P2. A hitter exerts signficant control over his LD%

C. Atkins' LD% will likely increase in 2010

...is unsound. It requires an assumed third premise, something like "Atkins' decrease in LD% was due to a nagging injury that should be fully healed in 2010" or any number of reasonable explanations. I haven't seen a third premise that would provide compelling evidence to assume that Atkins' LD% should return to 'normal' in 2010. While I think he will benefit from a change of scenery/circumstances and he will likely be at least a little better than he was in 2009, I don't expect a big rebound. It's not out of the question, but I don't expect it.

1970, your argument that 2009 is one season and not a continuing downward trend (the drop from 2007 to 2008 is relatively inconsequential) is true. I still don't consider 2009 to be an outlier to be discarded. I do consider it a red flag. I'm not sure how you could think that it wasn't.

In your research of LD% flux, did you get any numbers on the likelihood for a players LD% to return to normal after a 5-8 percent drop vs. the likelihood for it to stay down or get worse? I assumed that there would be a higher probability of decline or at least stagnation than that of rebound, but I admittedly haven't done the research.

Rep to you if you can address that. Again, I appreciate the discussion.

[El Gordo]

Again, I'm not arguing any of that.

However, if Hardy's LD% continues to drop he will soon be Izturis-esque.

Soon? Izzy was worth 1.3WAR last year.

[El Gordo]

I was talking about Hardy's offense, not his defense or overall value.

Well Izzy's not going anywhere wth his bat but if he can stay healthy for a whole year, I wouldn't be surprised if he was wasn't better with his glove. When talking about SS we shouldn't ignore that.

[RShack]

I haven't seen a third premise that would provide compelling evidence to assume that Atkins' LD% should return to 'normal' in 2010. While I think he will benefit from a change of scenery/circumstances and he will likely be at least a little better than he was in 2009, I don't expect a big rebound. It's not out of the question, but I don't expect it.

OK, so what makes a guy's LD% go down? Unless you believe in random trends, it's gotta be due to something. What, I don't know, but something. How can you say that it's either likely or unlikely to go back up if you don't know what's been making it go down?

[El Gordo]

OK, so what makes a guy's LD% go down? Unless you believe in random trends or voodoo spells, it's gotta be due to something. What, I don't know, but something. How can you say that it's either likely or unlikely to change back up if you don't know what's been makiing it go down?

If a guy's LD % is going down it means he is not squaring up the ball as consistently as he once did. That could mean a lot of things, like he is swinging at OZ pitches or he has lost some bat speed or he is struggling with of speed pitches. Whatever it's not a good sign.

[RShack]

If a guy's LD % is going down it means he is not squaring up the ball as consistently as he once did. That could mean a lot of things, like he is swinging at OZ pitches or he has lost some bat speed or he is struggling with of speed pitches. Whatever it's not a good sign.

So, either he's aging prematurely, or his eyesight is going, or he's hurt in a long-term nagging way, or he's got a degenerative condition about his reflexes, or he's gradually getting more and more stupid, or what else?

[RVAbird]

So, either he's aging prematurely, or his eyesight is going, or he's hurt in a long-term nagging way, or he's got a degenerative condition about his reflexes, or he's gradually getting more and more stupid, or what else?

It could be a combination of plenty of those things and more. It's impossible to discern from the statistics why a player's LD rate is going down. But what it means, invariably, is that he's not squaring up and hitting the ball consistently.

Again, you can't know for sure whether it will go up or down, and I never said you could. I said it's a red flag.

[RVAbird]

I didn't say it isn't a red flag. I just don't think it is a "huge" red flag. I'm going to do more research on it tomorrow, but I suspect we'll find that we can expect him go back at least halfway - to say 19.3%, which is fairly close to league average I believe. By the way, he did have an injury during at least ST, which may have contributed to his very low rate of 14% in both April and May (before rebounding to 21% in June).

I get you, I suppose. I won't play semantics over the size of the red flag.

If the injury was the cause of his drop in LD% early in the season, why did his rate drop again toward the end of the season? LD rates in small sample sizes are tricky, and this could be a case of confusing correlation with causation.

So what you're predicting is that when a player's LD rate drops by more than 5 percent in one season (from rate close to his average and not a peak), he will, on average, make up at least half the difference? Again, I'll be interested to see those results. I appreciate the work you're putting into it.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I get you, I suppose. I won't play semantics over the size of the red flag.

If the injury was the cause of his drop in LD% early in the season, why did his rate drop again toward the end of the season? LD rates in small sample sizes are tricky, and this could be a case of confusing correlation with causation.

So what you're predicting is that when a player's LD rate drops by more than 5 percent in one season (from rate close to his average and not a peak), he will, on average, make up at least half the difference? Again, I'll be interested to see those results. I appreciate the work you're putting into it.

An occurrence like this always makes me wonder about an unreported injury or a recurrence of a chronic problem.

Injuries are the biggest wildcard in player projection, IMO. Very often nobody knows when a player is fighting a nagging injury--the kind that may allow him to get on the field every day but which seriously degrades performance. Players have their own reasons for disguising injury, especially during a walk year, and all we see is the evidence of it in his declining numbers.

[Frobby]

Orioles Home/Away OPS Splits For 2009

1. Matt Wieters Home OPS: .813 Road OPS: .635
2. Aubrey Huff Home OPS: .784 Road OPS: .603
3. Brian Roberts Home OPS: .766 Road OPS: .850
4. Melvin Mora Home OPS: .819 Road OPS: .546
5. Noland Reimold Home OPS: .873 Road OPS: .798
6. Adam Jones Home OPS: .811 Road OPS: .772
7. Nick Markakis Home OPS: .812 Road OPS: .787
8. Luke Scott Home OPS: .925 Road OPS: .727
9. Cesar Itzsturis Home OPS: .773 Road OPS: .468

Matt Holiday couldn't touch some of these awful H/A OPS splits. I don't understand why people freak out about his Home/Away stats so much. His ROAD Ops for 2009 would be a large upgrade over what we had.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-reference.com

We're talking about splits over a career vs. splits over one season. There's a huge distinction between the two.

[El Gordo]

So, either he's aging prematurely, or his eyesight is going, or he's hurt in a long-term nagging way, or he's got a degenerative condition about his reflexes, or he's gradually getting more and more stupid, or what else?

It probably means that pitchers have found holes in his swing and he hasn't been able to make the adjustments. My guess it has to do with breaking pitches because they behave differently in Coors than other parks.

[SrMeowMeow]

It probably means that pitchers have found holes in his swing and he hasn't been able to make the adjustments. My guess it has to do with breaking pitches because they behave differently in Coors than other parks.

That was my guess too but my research indicated that he lost the ability to hit fastballs, not breaking balls. Of course, in 2009 he lost the ability to hit anything.

[El Gordo]

That was my guess too but my research indicated that he lost the ability to hit fastballs, not breaking balls. Of course, in 2009 he lost the ability to hit anything.

Since he probably doesn't see that many breaking balls at Coors, wouldn't that screw up his timing on fastballs in other parks, when he does see them?

[Orioles West]

Since he probably doesn't see that many breaking balls at Coors, wouldn't that screw up his timing on fastballs in other parks, when he does see them?

Pitchers throw plenty of breaking stuff at Coors Field. Slight changes on the break due to altitude, but only pitchers who buy into the mythology, completely change their approach in Denver.

Ubaldo Jimenez has a great curve ball and he utilizes it as much at home as he does on the road.

Atkins, more than anything, lost confidence last year, and his hitting coach and manager who pulled him out of every slump in his career was gone (Clint Hurdle). He missed bad on everything last year, and throwing him breaking stuff home or away kept him behind in the count.

-Don

[TyCobb]

So, either he's aging prematurely, or his eyesight is going, or he's hurt in a long-term nagging way, or he's got a degenerative condition about his reflexes, or he's gradually getting more and more stupid, or what else?

Pujols had his worst LD% of his career last season and had his 3rd best hitting season.

A low LD% alone will simply point to a low BABIP. Nothing more.

A lowering LD% with a lowering FB% is a terrible sign.