Why are so many posters fooled by Coors?

[wildcard]

Re: Atkins..

In the last 3 seasons, Atkins has accomplished the following:

810 at-bats on the road, with a .696 OPS. This included 32 homers, 32 doubles.

760 at-bats at home, with a .868 OPS. This included 23 homers, and 47 doubles.

453 at-bats vs Left-handed Pitching, with a .856 OPS.

This tells me that while he was a better hitter at-home in Coors Field, his power basically translated everywhere. It also tells me that he could help balance the O's lineup against lefties.

The O's did not sign Atkins with the belief he would come close to replicating his 2006 season, where he had a .965 OPS, a .329 average, 29 homers, and 120 rbi.

They are signing Atkins with the belief that if he does not have to play in the National League West, and the pitcher friendly stadiums of LA, SD, and San Francisco; that he can rebound and out produce what Mora provided in 2009.

A 2010 season of a .750 OPS, 20 homers, 80 rbi would be a realistic expectation to me.

Re: Holliday, he has a .933 career OPS, which included a .909 mark in 2009, with zero home games in Coors Field. Do I think he is the elite of the elite? No, I do not. However, your comments are too far to the other-side.

Interesting post.

I think MacPhail sees Bell able to kill righthanded pitching, but can't hit a lick against lefties. He probably believes that Bell will be ready by mid June if the O's are willing to accept him as a platoon player.

Atkins will get the everyday job at third until mid June and in all likelihood will have a below 700 OPS at that time. However, as you point out he can hit lefties which makes him a good bet to be the other half of the third base platoon for the rest of the year.

I also noticed that though Atkins is doubtful to be a good everyday player, he will probably does several things well. 1) Hit lefties, 2) hit with runners in scoring postion (which leads to the RBI totals you mentioned) and 3) hit with power.

Managed properly (which Trembley has not done well with others in the last two years) Atkins probably gets about 200 at bats to show he is a every day player (fails at that) and then probably gets another 120 at bats the rest of the year against lefties. I don't see him getting 500 at bats but rather about 320, while ending the year as a role player. Therefore I think your projection of 20 HR and 80 RBI is optimistic because I never see him getting enough at bats to accumulate those kind of numbers.

[Dr. Andrews]

Overrated? Yes, I can buy that.

Vastly overrated? I don't buy that.

You said he couldn't produce in the AL. Really? He was on pace to be a 4.8 WAR player had he played 150 games for Oakland. That would have made him the second best LF (and 5th best OF) in the AL, behind Crawford, but well ahead of Span.

It is also obviously completely wrong to say he only found success when hitting behind Pujols. Hitting behind a great hitter doesn't make someone a vastly better hitter. It certainly doesn't hurt, but it doesn't make the difference that some are making it out to make.

Are you sure that hitting behind the best hitter in the game doesn't make that great of a difference? Look at the 2002 San Francisco Giants...Jeff Kent, a great player (don't get me wrong), hit behind Barry Bonds (who hit a record 73 home-runs that year). Kent had a career best 37 home-runs in 2002. In fact, if you look at his numbers on the Giants (all hitting behind Bonds), his stats are well above what they were on his stints with the Mets, Astros, and Dodgers.

Jeff Kent Averages:

Giants: 29.2 HR, 114.8 RBI, .297 BA, .367 OBP, .902 OPS

Else: 18.4 HR, 75.4 RBI, .283 BA, .344 OBP, .817 OPS

Now, you may argue that Kent didn't "hit his prime" until his stint with the Giants, however, he was 29 when he began his career in San Francisco. Most players statistically hit their "primes" before age 30. This is just one example of how hitting behind the best hitter in the game can make an above average hitter look like Babe Ruth...which is what I believe explains Holliday's second half last year.

[Lucky Jim]

Are you sure that hitting behind the best hitter in the game doesn't make that great of a difference? Look at the 2002 San Francisco Giants...Jeff Kent, a great player (don't get me wrong), hit behind Barry Bonds (who hit a record 73 home-runs that year). Kent had a career best 37 home-runs in 2002. In fact, if you look at his numbers on the Giants (all hitting behind Bonds), his stats are well above what they were on his stints with the Mets, Astros, and Dodgers.

Jeff Kent Averages:

Giants: 29.2 HR, 114.8 RBI, .297 BA, .367 OBP, .902 OPS

Else: 18.4 HR, 75.4 RBI, .283 BA, .344 OBP, .817 OPS

Now, you may argue that Kent didn't "hit his prime" until his stint with the Giants, however, he was 29 when he began his career in San Francisco. Most players statistically hit their "primes" before age 30. This is just one example of how hitting behind the best hitter in the game can make an above average hitter look like Babe Ruth...which is what I believe explains Holliday's second half last year.

All you've shown is a correlation. Correlations don't amount to much, other than acknowledgment that two things happened in the vicinity of each other.

[maudibjr]

First Atkins and Holliday really needed to be seperated.

1. Atkins is a stopgap. Don't expect the world out of anyone that you can sign for 1 year. His numbers are in decline, maybe Crow can help him, maybe not. Maybe he saw something that can be fixed, but I don't see it. I don't really see how much we gain by aquiring him over what Wiggy/Scott would provide. Maybe as a bat against lefties when Bell comes up. $4.5 M seems awefully expensive for that role.

2. Holliday is a diffrent beast, but I think he is being overrated. I'm not saying grossly overrated or that he is a bad player, BUT, IMO he has slightly inflated numbers and being part of a very small FA class he is getting undue attention. IMO, he is this years Beltran, a good plyer but not nearly worth what he will receive.

I think that Bay will be a better hitter over 5 years. I don't think the O's should be intrested in either.

[sangar]

On their splits pages Baseball-Reference has a column called sOPS, which compares how someone (or a team) does in a particular split as compared to the rest of the league in that same split. If hitting behind Pujols has such a profound impact doesn't it stand to reason that anyone who hits fourth in the Cardinals lineup will have a sOPS over 100?

2009: 106

2008: 98

2007: 67

If you can provide true evidence it helps I'll admit to being wrong. I've yet to see that evidence.

Also, if anything, I'd expect the guy in front of Pujols to benefit from his presence moreso than the guy behind him. For instance, Ludwig has done better in the 2-hole in his career than he has in the cleanup spot (which, of course, is not proof of anything).

This is what I'm thinking too. Unless, of course, the pitcher is distracted and depressed from what Pujols just did to him. :laughlol:

[jets4ever]

WOW!!!! Will you guys ever stop drinking the spiked orange kool-aid????

Probably not.

[scOtt]

Another thing: I'm pretty sure the recent interest in Holliday is a result of boredom. Smart posters who would have (and in many cases actually did) dismissed Holliday out of hand at the beginning of the offseason as someone who doesn't fit a need and is overpriced due to inflated stats are now slowly convincing themselves that he's a good idea. This is dangerous.

Bottom line:

If he's cheap, he's a good buy.

That's it.

Guilty.

except maybe for the smart poster part...

[bmorebirds_24]

Yeah, I was guilty of reading into your comments. That is my mistake. Perhaps if you had quoted someone, and added substance to your comments, there would have been less ambiguity.

I've posted on other threads about Pie not being able to hold Holliday's jock strap. I don't get how people can't see the talent difference in Pie and Holliday?

[PaulFolk]

I've posted on other threads about Pie not being able to hold Holliday's jock strap. I don't get how people can't see the talent difference in Pie and Holliday?

Are you reading a different board than the rest of us? Has anyone said that Pie and Holliday are equals?

[Sports Guy]

I've posted on other threads about Pie not being able to hold Holliday's jock strap. I don't get how people can't see the talent difference in Pie and Holliday?

What you aren't seeing is the talent Pie has...both what he showed at young ages in the minors and what he showed last year after adjusting his swing and getting consistent playing time.

No one is saying that Pie is as good as Holliday right now..But if Pie is a 3-4 win player and Holliday is a 5-6 win player, you are paying an awful lot of money for not much difference in wins...plus Holliday is getting older and will likely decline some, where as you feel Pie should be getting better...So, in 2-3 years, Pie could actually be the more valuable guy.

If Holliday's defense continues to slip in LF, his value will go down more...If his OPS just goes to 860, with average or worse defense, all of a sudden he isn't really any better than a 750-775 OPS Pie who plays GG defense.

[Arthur_Bryant]

When did OPACY become Safeco?

I think it is very fair to say that Holliday should be able to produce an 850+ OPS playing here.

For $18-20MM a year with lackluster defense, he needs to do much better than that.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Pie compared to Holliday= The Ultimate Straw Man.

[alaniee]

LOL @ you wouldn't trade Reimold or Pie straight up for Holliday.

Thanks for the chuckle.

[SrMeowMeow]

What is the misleading analysis?

The numbers speak the reality of the situation. Yes, he has been better at home (Coors), and there is no dispute of that.

However 64 XBH's in 810 road at-bats the past 3 years, vs 70 XBH's in 760 at-bats at home during the same period, should give you comfort that his power numbers were not solely based on playing at Coors.

His power is going to translate anywhere.

Again, he was signed to replace a 37 year-old Melvin Mora who had a .679 OPS of his own last year.

I would look at Atkins 2006, and 2009 seasons as extremes. I believe the player he likely is, is somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 numbers. Adjust a bit for age, shifting to the AL, not having to play division games in LA, San Fran, and San Diego; and I find it a very good bet to believe he will produce at the .750 OPS I predict.

If I am wrong, it will be clear by the end of May and they can move Bell into the starting lineup.

This was a no lose addition.

Explain to me how he's a good bet for .750 OPS? He's moving to a harder league, a harder division, and a less helpful park. And, he's had four straight years of declining power.

[Sports Guy]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/garrett-atkins-to-the-orioles

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1790&position=3B

James project Atkins to have ab 800 OPS next year...Fangraphs says 750.

Playing in a hitters park last year, he actually had an unlucky HR/FB%.

The problem with last year was his huge drop in line drive %...Will that continue?