O's sign Russ Ortiz

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think Ortiz will be worse than Loewen has been.

Loewen: Whip 1.85, ERA 7.12, 21 walks in 30.1 innings.

Ortiz: Whip 2.16, ERA 7.54, 22 walks in 22.2 innings.

Yea, there's no way Ortiz could be any worse than Loewen.

[Flosman]

Palmer had a line in yesterdays game that was great in reponse to those who say the O's have nothing to lose in signing Ortiz. "the only thing they have to lose is games". Unless Leo really thinks it is a quick fix then I would have rather stayed with Adam or piecemealed the 5th spot with Chen/Birkins or some other AAA combination.

[DrungoHazewood]

I looked up some numbers. I made a list of the worst season ERAs relative to league for all pitchers in the last 50 years, minimum 100 innings pitched, minimum age of 30. I wanted to match Oritz in crapulence, innings, and age (to eliminate kids getting their first taste of the bigs).

Russ Ortiz' 2005 came in 5th.

Here's Ortiz' comps:

Name	Bad Year	ROC_IP	ROC_ERARoss Grimsley	1980	60	5.25Andy Benes	2001	97	2.78Hideo Nomo	2005	-	-Joe Cabrera	2002	-	-Bob Purkey	1965	20	1.35Ed Whitson	1986	945	3.53Jose Lima	2005	14.1	8.79Mike Moore	1995	-	-Tim Leary	1991	331	5.38Jim Bunning	1971	-	-Greg Harris	1994	48.1	2.61Doug Drabek	1998	-	-Jim Bullinger	1996	161	5.93

ROC = Rest of career

Basically we have 10 guys who didn't pitch 100 innings the rest of their lives, Tim Leary who pitched 331 and Jim Bullinger who pitched 161 but both would have been better off quitting, and Ed Whitson who bizarrely rebounded from years of awfulness to have his two best seasons at 34 and 35.

So apparently that's what we have to hope for: Ed Whitson. He was 1986's Carl Pavano - a guy who parlayed one pretty good year into a big contract with the Yanks, and gave them a year-and-a-half of an ERA+ of about 75. Bad pitcher, in other words. But he slowly got better with age, to the point where he was 30-20 with an ERA in the mid 2.00s at 34-35. At 36 he regressed then retired.

So I guess all the "Mazzone fixes him" fantasies have some small grasp on reality. But it also seems that for every Ed Whitson there's a dozen Jim Bullingers and Tim Learys who shoulda just gone fishing. Also, Ortiz has 22 innings of getting his head bashed in this year, too. No one on the above list was comparable - either they retired, or rebounded somewhat in bad year + 1. No one except Jose Lima. I'm really hoping it's not Lima time.

[skornya]

Maybe I'm just a little new at this, but are we that desperate that we need to go out and sign Russ Ortiz? His ERA has gone up 5 straight years (since a low of 3.29 in a pitchers park in 2001); his WHIP up every year since his 21 win season in '03 (from 1.31 to 2.16), and over the last three years HE'S HAD DANIEL CABRERA-ESQUE CONTROL ISSUES. (Ortiz 5.3 BB/9IP, Cabrera 5.62 BB/9IP). The only difference being that when Cabrera gets the ball in the vicinity of home plate, he can be nigh on unhittable; Ortiz' BAA last three seasons? .258, .313, .303. That and the half the season spent on the DL, and the not having won a game since since last August, and having spent much of the last 2 years on the DL begs the question...

WHAT KIND OF WACKY WEED ARE THEY SMOKING AT THE WEARHOUSE AND WHERE CAN I GET SOME OF IT? Cause anything that can give the FO the hallucination that Russ Ortiz can still be described with the phrase "Quality ML Pitcher" has got to be worth trying.

And why are we sending Loewen, the #2 prospect in the organization down? In the long run, what is going to be more beneficial to his development? Pitching in front of nobody, facing nobody in the minors,and working with Larry McCall? Or pitching in the show, facing MLB hitters, and working with Leo Mazzone EVERY DAY? Look, I know the kid is getting blowtorched, but maybe there is something to this 'losing builds character' thing. Look at Jeremy Bonderman of the Tigers...he got lit his first season, but kept getting the starts, and it helped his development.

Russ Ortiz can help us now. Maybe. But Adam Loewen is the future of this ballclub. If by getting MLB experience now, it can help bring that future closer, than Loewen needs to get the experience. Signing Ortiz just perpetuates the delusion that we have a chance to be competitive this year, and we're just that one guy away.

[PaulFolk]

A fact-check question: 4 years for $55m? Or was it $33m?

You're right, it was $33m. Good catch. I've made the correction.

[mweb]

Loewen: Whip 1.85, ERA 7.12, 21 walks in 30.1 innings.

Ortiz: Whip 2.16, ERA 7.54, 22 walks in 22.2 innings.

Yea, there's no way Ortiz could be any worse than Loewen.

I didn't say no way. I jus think Mazzone will help him as he did before and that Ortiz will be motivated by his release. I'm not expecting a great improvement, but I would be surprised if he can't do as well as Loewen.

[Sports Guy]

I looked up some numbers. I made a list of the worst season ERAs relative to league for all pitchers in the last 50 years, minimum 100 innings pitched, minimum age of 30. I wanted to match Oritz in crapulence, innings, and age (to eliminate kids getting their first taste of the bigs).

Russ Ortiz' 2005 came in 5th.

Here's Ortiz' comps:

Name	Bad Year	ROC_IP	ROC_ERARoss Grimsley	1980	60	5.25Andy Benes	2001	97	2.78Hideo Nomo	2005	-	-Joe Cabrera	2002	-	-Bob Purkey	1965	20	1.35Ed Whitson	1986	945	3.53Jose Lima	2005	14.1	8.79Mike Moore	1995	-	-Tim Leary	1991	331	5.38Jim Bunning	1971	-	-Greg Harris	1994	48.1	2.61Doug Drabek	1998	-	-Jim Bullinger	1996	161	5.93

ROC = Rest of career

Basically we have 10 guys who didn't pitch 100 innings the rest of their lives, Tim Leary who pitched 331 and Jim Bullinger who pitched 161 but both would have been better off quitting, and Ed Whitson who bizarrely rebounded from years of awfulness to have his two best seasons at 34 and 35.

So apparently that's what we have to hope for: Ed Whitson. He was 1986's Carl Pavano - a guy who parlayed one pretty good year into a big contract with the Yanks, and gave them a year-and-a-half of an ERA+ of about 75. Bad pitcher, in other words. But he slowly got better with age, to the point where he was 30-20 with an ERA in the mid 2.00s at 34-35. At 36 he regressed then retired.

So I guess all the "Mazzone fixes him" fantasies have some small grasp on reality. But it also seems that for every Ed Whitson there's a dozen Jim Bullingers and Tim Learys who shoulda just gone fishing. Also, Ortiz has 22 innings of getting his head bashed in this year, too. No one on the above list was comparable - either they retired, or rebounded somewhat in bad year + 1. No one except Jose Lima. I'm really hoping it's not Lima time.

However, in those 22 IP, he is averaging just under 9k's/9IP....So, the strikeouts are there. That may be a semi decent sign.

[EC_oriole]

Why are people still saying Mazzone has helped him before? He pitched worse in Atlanta then he did the previous two years in San Francisco. What practically is Mazzone supposed to do with a pitcher who apparently has lost his stuff and can't get it over the plate?

[Pheasants]

If it's just about replacing Loewen for a while, why not Birkens or one of the B's at Ottowa. That's three young pitchers who've done well recently in our system. Could any do worse than Ortiz?

[Witchy_Chick]

I was getting ready to sign off for the day, but checked Roch's blog before I logged off. I'll leave you all with this little nugget:

I know some of you are wondering if [Russ] Ortiz and Jason Grimsley were close in Arizona, and if the Orioles took this into account before signing him. You hate to go there, but that's what we do nowadays. The sport leaves us no choice.

Witchy

[NJOriolesFan]

He is not a great pitcher but why did he from 1999-2004 average 16 wins vs. 9 losses and a 3.93 ERA (or 4 runs per year better than average). His walk rate was high with a 4.57 BB/9IP but 6.67 K/9IP is not horrible. He also only gave up 20 home runs per year in about 209 innings per year.

What happened in 2005 and for a few innings in 2006 that made him go so bad? He started walking more, striking out less, gave up more home runs and hits and became a losing pitcher. Does that 138 innings over the last 28 starts outweigh his 1999-2004 numbers where he was essentially as successfull as Kris Benson, A.J. Burnett and countless others?