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Time for Bergesen to go back down (update: Bergesen sent down)

Tony-OH

By Tony-OH
in Orioles Talk

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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Here's my question.

After last season (and even during the year) there was some discussion about how Bergesen's peripheral numbers suggested he wouldn't be able to repeat last season's success.

Is it possible the issue isn't whether he can return to last season's form but whether he's just regressing to a more natural level?

His regression would not be to a 12.19 ERA.

His FIP in 2009 was 4.10

His xFIP in 2009 was 4.42

His ZiPS projection for 2010 was 4.68

These are all around the true talent level I'd expect of Bergesen if his performance was similar that of 2009.

What's going on right now is clearly not statistical regression. His command has gone from pinpoint to awful and the movement on his pitches has been much worse. His GB% was a big part of his success last season and it wasn't luck. It was just a little bit worse than his MiL GB%.

So far his sinker isn't sinking, his slider isn't sliding, and his command is not good. The results are indicative of a different pitcher than we saw last year. What's changed is not outcomes but performance.

Something's just not right.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

Posted
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Here's my question.

After last season (and even during the year) there was some discussion about how Bergesen's peripheral numbers suggested he wouldn't be able to repeat last season's success.

Is it possible the issue isn't whether he can return to last season's form but whether he's just regressing to a more natural level?

His FIP last year was 4.10. xFIP was 4.42. So his peripherals weren't as good as his ERA, but still quite respectable.

His worse case natural level is probably a 5.5-6 ERA imo. Not good, but obviously much better than what he is doing.

Ah, see I was beat to the punch, good post RVAbird.

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BaltimoreTerp Hangout Grand Counsel

BaltimoreTerp

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His regression would not be to a 12.19 ERA.

His FIP in 2009 was 4.10

His xFIP in 2009 was 4.42

His ZiPS projection for 2010 4.68

These are all around the true talent level I'd expect of Bergesen if his performance was similar that of 2009.

What's going on right now is clearly not statistical regression. His command has gone from pinpoint to awful and the movement on his pitches has been much worse. His GB% was a big part of his success last season and it wasn't luck. It was just a little bit worse than his MiL GB%.

So far his sinker isn't sinking his slider isn't sliding, and his command is not good. The results are indicative of a different pitcher than we saw last year. What's changed is not outcomes but performance.

Something's just not right.

I almost threw in a "Obviously I don't think he's THIS bad, but it could be going too far in the other direction", but I figured it was, well, obvious :D

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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I almost threw in a "Obviously I don't think he's THIS bad, but it could be going too far in the other direction", but I figured it was, well, obvious :D

Yeah, I know you know better than to come to that conclusion. I was really just carrying out the idea of outcome regression vs. change in performance.

I was pretty concerned about Bergesen regressing this season. Prior to 2009 I considered him a possible back-end starter or middle reliever, or guy who could give you a ~5.00 and 150 IP but might be better suited out of the bullpen. My opinions don't change too easily but after I watched him pitch in the big leagues last year a couple of things adjusted my projection.

In any case, the difference for Bergesen right now is clearly in performance, not outcomes (IMO). He has less movement and worse command. He's not the pitcher he was last year, but I also contend he's not the pitcher he was in the minor leagues. I think he will be okay but he needs to make some big adjustments.

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isestrex Hangout Grand Counsel

isestrex

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AAA isn't a death sentence. There are minor leagues for a reason. Let him get straightened out and then get him back up here. More starts like the last 3 aren't good for anybody.

Yes very good point. Remember that Ricky Nolasco was horrible his first handfull of starts last year but after a AAA stint where he was able to collect himself mentally, he came back and pitched great the rest of the year.

I'm not sure why people are so against him going down to AAA.

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VeveJones007 Hangout Veteran Council

VeveJones007

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Yes very good point. Remember that Ricky Nolasco was horrible his first handfull of starts last year but after a AAA stint where he was able to collect himself mentally, he came back and pitched great the rest of the year.

I'm not sure why people are so against him going down to AAA.

Even though I think he definitely needs to be sent down to Norfolk for a while, I think it's fair to not want to burn an option if you don't think it's absolutely necessary.

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isestrex Hangout Grand Counsel

isestrex

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Yeah I think it's time for Bergy to head back down and have Mike Griffin work with him as Griffin was the one that helped out Bergy a ton with his tempo.

Right on... his tempo being off was one of the biggest things I noticed tonight.

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LookitsPuck Hangout Grand Counsel

LookitsPuck

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His sinker was working relatively well. He was getting ground balls, but they were finding holes. The big one (for his psyche) being the error to Wigginton that would have gotten him out of the inning yielding only 1 run.

I think what happened was this:

Bergy went out there with intent to show that he fixed his issue. He pitched relatively well, until he hit adversity (i.e. not locating his offspeed pitches). He finally gets his location, and guys are just hitting ground balls that found holes, and ultimately one that caused him to fall off his own wagon (the error).

He needs to stop expecting that these ground balls are going to turn into outs, and just relax. He never got into a rhythm. He was pissed, out of rhythm, and that's what threw things into oblivion.

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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AAA isn't a death sentence. There are minor leagues for a reason. Let him get straightened out and then get him back up here. More starts like the last 3 aren't good for anybody.

Good point. After several months in the big leagues, Halladay was sent back to single A to sort things out and it worked out for him. Right now Bergesen looks nothing like the pitcher we saw last year. Let's get ahead of the curve on this one.

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clapdiddy Hangout Grand Counsel

clapdiddy

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I guess the thing that I didn't like most about watching him tonight was the rushing of the delivery that Lucky Jim pointed out. It seemed like he could have been called for a couple of balks when he had runners on base because he didn't come to a set on his delivery.

Last year, he seemed to be quite confident on the mound. He certainly hasn't looked confident at all this year.

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bluedog Veteran All-Star

bluedog

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I don't think he's psychologically over the horrific defense behind him.

Exactly - he's fallen apart in all three starts after the defense failed to make plays that would have gotten him out of what later turned out to be huge innings. Jones, Tejada and Wigginton all blew plays they could (or should) have made.

Doesn't remove the responsibility for the walks and hits Bergy gave up before and after those plays, but we all know he's a guy that needs strong defense behind him to be successful and the O's haven't provided that.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/2010/04/bergesen_likely_headed_to_mino.html

Orioles manager Dave Trembley and pitching coach Rick Kranitz were meeting with struggling starter Brad Bergesen behind closed doors in the manager's office as I left the clubhouse.

I'm told by multiple sources that Bergesen has been informed that he won't make his next start up here and he's headed to the minors.

Hopefully, I'll have more tomorrow, but it's hard to get people on the horn at 1:45 East Coast time. I'm guessing either long reliever Jason Berken or Triple-A Norfolk's Jake Arrieta takes his spot in the rotation. But we shall see.

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